General Election XXVI Predictions Thread Watch

Connor27
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Good evening honourable members of the house,

In accordance with MHOC tradition I thought it apt to start the thread for members’ predictions for the upcoming general election before voting starts.

Rakas21: would you be able to publicise this thread in an update PM?

I shall start:

Labour Party: 14 seats
Conservative Party: 11 seats
Libertarian Party: 10 seats
Liberal Party: 9 Seats
UKIP: 2 seats
Socialist Party: 3 seats
Connor27 (Independent): 1 seat
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Rakas21
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(Original post by Connor27)
Good evening honourable members of the house,

In accordance with MHOC tradition I thought it apt to start the thread for members’ predictions for the upcoming general election before voting starts.

Rakas21: would you be able to publicise this thread in an update PM?

I shall start:

Labour Party: 14 seats
Conservative Party: 11 seats
Libertarian Party: 10 seats
Liberal Party: 9 Seats
UKIP: 2 seats
Socialist Party: 3 seats
Connor27 (Independent): 1 seat
I'n going to have the CT advertise in such a way that people are directed to the main thread, this thread and the official debate since people seem to want one.
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Aph
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No point doing this until it’s confirmed who is standing.
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Connor27
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(Original post by Rakas21)
I'n going to have the CT advertise in such a way that people are directed to the main thread, this thread and the official debate since people seem to want one.
Will Independents be invited to the debate?
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OrganicCrystal
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Labour gains seats
Conservative lose seats

Not by a lot
Overall, one of these major parties must form a coalition Government.
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Connor27
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(Original post by Aph)
No point doing this until it’s confirmed who is standing.
Fair point indeed, it was simply a case of wanting to be the OP if I’m honest.
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Connor27
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(Original post by OrganicCrystal)
Labour gains seats
Conservative lose seats

Not by a lot
Overall, one of these major parties must form a coalition Government.
Very very unlikely for Labour to gain or the Tories to lose considering the MHOC starting points, they are at respective peaks and troughs, and I’m sure neither leader will be offended by my saying that.
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Joep95
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Liber 50
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Aph
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(Original post by Connor27)
Fair point indeed, it was simply a case of wanting to be the OP if I’m honest.
We don’t know, it’s always possible a surprise indie comes out of the woodwork or a party makes an illegal manifesto.
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TeeEff
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(Original post by OrganicCrystal)
Labour gains seats
Conservative lose seats

Not by a lot
Overall, one of these major parties must form a coalition Government.
To clarify, this is for MHoC rather than real life. I'd be rather impressed if TSR Labour got even more seats than they managed to get in the last MHoC general election.
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username2080673
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Liberal Party - 50
Labour Party - 0
Conservative Party - 0
UKIP - 0
Socialist Party - 0
Libertarian Party - 0
Independents - 0
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Saunders16
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(Original post by Conceited)
Libertarian Party - 50
Labour Party - 0
Conservative Party - 0
UKIP - 0
Socialist Party - 0
Liberal Party - 0
Independents - 0
FTFY
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PetrosAC
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(Original post by Aph)
No point doing this until it’s confirmed who is standing.
I've got to completely agree here. Not much point
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Mr T 999
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(Original post by Aph)
No point doing this until it’s confirmed who is standing.
This ^^^
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Baron of Sealand
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Crooked Hillary will rig the elections and win all 50 seats, and then she will be disqualified for sending campaign emails from her personal email account, and Hitlor will step in to take all the seats cuz she can't get no hits no more
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Rakas21
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(Original post by Connor27)
Will Independents be invited to the debate?
All candidates.
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username280380
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(Original post by Conceited)
Liberal Party - 50
Labour Party - 0
Conservative Party - 0
UKIP - 0
Socialist Party - 0
Libertarian Party - 0
Independents - 0
He knows!

#TheLiberalVisionforBritain
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cranbrook_aspie
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Early but I'll do it anyway.

Labour's support will slip a bit because last time there was a rl election so slightly more Corbynmania, but not much (and we also basically can't do any better than we did last time). The Tories have been reasonably active this term and will likely gain enough from their probable 'we're not the government' shtick for an extra couple of seats.
The Libers will suffer a little bit from not having Fleky's 'tactics' shall we say at their disposal, but not enough that they will lose seats compared to what they actually had in the last parliament after Petros' penalty rather than what the results suggested they would have had. The turnout will be slightly lower and we obviously no longer have the Greens in the equation, those factors in combination will benefit the Socs and Ukip (I doubt their vote totals will change much though) and also probably get Connor over the line. I can't see Hazzer being elected or the Respect thing getting off the ground enough for a seat (assuming it's allowed to run which iirc Rakas has said it's going to be). Overall, not a lot of change.

TSR Labour Party: 16 seats (-2 but actually -1)
TSR Conservative and Unionist Party: 10 seats (+1 but actually +2)
TSR Libertarian Party: 8 seats (+1 but actually -1)
TSR Liberal Party: 7 seats (-1)
TSR Socialist Party: 4 seats (+1)
TSR UK Independence Party 4 seats (+1)
Connor27, independent: 1 seat (+1)
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Saunders16
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(Original post by Afcwimbledon2)
He knows!

#TheLiberalVisionforBritain
#LibertarianRevolution has a much better ring to it.

I've got nothing better to do so here are my predictions:

TSR Labour Party - 16 seats (-1)
They're without an adept recruiter, have been relatively inactive for their size all term and won't get the same amount of TSR members who don't use the MHoC supporting them as it's not a General Election. Nonetheless, they still easily have enough members, aren't doing worse than anyone else and are doing well enough in real life to not lose a considerable amount of seats.

TSR Conservative Party - 11 seats (+2)
I can't see them getting more votes than they did last election because their party membership is not at an all-time high and they are doing poorly in real life. However, I'm expecting a lower turnout of about 150 (or less) than last election so I think they have been stable enough to use that to their advantage.

TSR Libertarian Party - 10 seats (+3)
We're without Fleky's "tactics" this time round but have gained a fair share of new members for a house with dwindling interest. Upon my election we had a serious activity problem as the instability caused by last election saw people lose interest in the game, but a few older members have also got involved again giving us a similar amount of active members to the Conservatives and the Liberals. Again, we will receive less votes than last election and to a greater extent than the Conservatives but I still expect to receive 8-10 seats if my predictions about the turnout are correct.

TSR Liberal Party - 7 seats (-1)
Unless the Liberals can really pull this election out of the bag, I can't see them gaining seats. From what I've heard, their activity has fallen, important members have left, and we all know how poorly the Liberal Democrats are doing in real life although I don't expect them to attempt to gain the wider TSR vote through an anti-Brexit message. Between the three parties vying for second-place, it's really a matter of who has come out of this term the worst and I can't see a surprise coming.

TSR Socialist Party - 3 seats (NC)
I don't really have much to say about this one. The party seems to be held up by a few key members and, although they have lost a few important people like Cran, I expect them to maintain their three seats due to a low turnout.

TSR UKIP - 2 seats (-1)
I am not certain about this one, but without the influence of UU and his bots I can't see any way UKIP can keep all their seats even with a low turnout. They've been doing progressively worse over the past few elections, have absolutely no relevance in real life and will lose potential voters to Hazzer.

adamantacademic - 1 seat (+1)
Assuming he keeps to his word and runs for election, he should be able to win a seat. Whilst I cannot see a way for the Respect Party to get off the ground and see no need or desire for it to do so, his views seem popular enough to warrant a seat and there are at least 4/5 people who will be voting for him already.
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username280380
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(Original post by Saunders16)
#LibertarianRevolution has a much better ring to it.

I've got nothing better to do so here are my predictions:

TSR Labour Party - 16 seats (-1)
They're without an adept recruiter, have been relatively inactive for their size all term and won't get the same amount of TSR members who don't use the MHoC supporting them as it's not a General Election. Nonetheless, they still easily have enough members, aren't doing worse than anyone else and are doing well enough in real life to not lose a considerable amount of seats.

TSR Conservative Party - 11 seats (+2)
I can't see them getting more votes than they did last election because their party membership is not at an all-time high and they are doing poorly in real life. However, I'm expecting a lower turnout of about 150 (or less) than last election so I think they have been stable enough to use that to their advantage.

TSR Libertarian Party - 10 seats (+3)
We're without Fleky's "tactics" this time round but have gained a fair share of new members for a house with dwindling interest. Upon my election we had a serious activity problem as the instability caused by last election saw people lose interest in the game, but a few older members have also got involved again giving us a similar amount of active members to the Conservatives and the Liberals. Again, we will receive less votes than last election and to a greater extent than the Conservatives but I still expect to receive 8-10 seats if my predictions about the turnout are correct.

TSR Liberal Party - 7 seats (-1)
Unless the Liberals can really pull this election out of the bag, I can't see them gaining seats. From what I've heard, their activity has fallen, important members have left, and we all know how poorly the Liberal Democrats are doing in real life although I don't expect them to attempt to gain the wider TSR vote through an anti-Brexit message. Between the three parties vying for second-place, it's really a matter of who has come out of this term the worst and I can't see a surprise coming.

TSR Socialist Party - 3 seats (NC)
I don't really have much to say about this one. The party seems to be held up by a few key members and, although they have lost a few important people like Cran, I expect them to maintain their three seats due to a low turnout.

TSR UKIP - 2 seats (-1)
I am not certain about this one, but without the influence of UU and his bots I can't see any way UKIP can keep all their seats even with a low turnout. They've been doing progressively worse over the past few elections, have absolutely no relevance in real life and will lose potential voters to Hazzer.

adamantacademic - 1 seat (+1)
Assuming he keeps to his word and runs for election, he should be able to win a seat. Whilst I cannot see a way for the Respect Party to get off the ground and see no need or desire for it to do so, his views seem popular enough to warrant a seat and there are at least 4/5 people who will be voting for him already.
Fairly certain you don't know what our activity levels are like We're one of the more active parties as a whole in the house, but that also shows how terrible the activity levels are for the rest of the house.
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