Will other countries leave Euro?

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richard10012
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Will other countries vote to break away?
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Jimbo Jones
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in my opinion the EU won't last more than maybe a few decades more at a push - the euro is only one factor of that prediction
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paul514
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(Original post by richard10012)
Will other countries vote to break away?
Given time probably there are all sorts of splits and problems.

If we end up with a free trade deal and 40 billion in payments over a couple of decades that’s a green light
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PilgrimOfTruth
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(Original post by richard10012)
Will other countries vote to break away?
Nailed on certainty imo.

SpExit, GrExit, SwExit, ItaLeave and the rest.

The EU is a crumbling facade. The megalomaniacs are desperate to put a brave face on BrExit and are doing their best to try and make an example of the UK but in effect it just makes matters worse, it highlights admirably what a bunch of shysters they actually are.

It is quite legitimate (currently!) for any member state to up and leave the EU. If the EU were a genuine body of peace and affability then it would happily let member states leave. What we are seeing are teenage tantrums and dolly's being thrown out of prams.

All of which serves to enforce the decision to get out.

Europeans . . . love 'em.

EU . . . . a cesspit of corruption

So long, and thanks for all the fish !

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ByEeek
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I think the thing that we don't have that many Europeans do have is a strong sense of just how brutal the second world war was. WW2 and the events that took place are still very much in the forefront of many young Germans and Europeans. The EU was founded as a way to try and prevent the atrocities of WW2.

Ironically, the "screw you, we can do better than you lot" attitude many Brexiters have, is born from the fact that we won the war. What they fail to take into account of is that we only won it because the Americans bailed us out. I think those who truly believe we can take on the world as an independent nation are in for a big shock in a few years time.

I don't think the EU will split. There is too much at stake, and not just financially.
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paul514
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(Original post by ByEeek)
I think the thing that we don't have that many Europeans do have is a strong sense of just how brutal the second world war was. WW2 and the events that took place are still very much in the forefront of many young Germans and Europeans. The EU was founded as a way to try and prevent the atrocities of WW2.

Ironically, the "screw you, we can do better than you lot" attitude many Brexiters have, is born from the fact that we won the war. What they fail to take into account of is that we only won it because the Americans bailed us out. I think those who truly believe we can take on the world as an independent nation are in for a big shock in a few years time.

I don't think the EU will split. There is too much at stake, and not just financially.
Facepalm.... nato holds the power not the European Union.

The idea for the eec was to make economy’s so intertwined it would make war less likely. Ironically that’s all the British want, trade.
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AperfectBalance
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(Original post by paul514)
Facepalm.... nato holds the power not the European Union.

The idea for the eec was to make economy’s so intertwined it would make war less likely. Ironically that’s all the British want, trade.
Yes bar the EU army currently being formed by most of the nations in the EU that is being used to directly oppose NATO reliance and the massive economic power held by the EU and the power over the countries who in turn have their own millitary, It is not like economic power is anything I mean when the people start to suddenly want bread since all they are all starving we can just push the tanks back and fly the planes like a kite back when we run out of money, food and fuel

The EU holds a massive amount of power and in all honesty I dont blame Britain for wanting trade, it is almost like money is a good thing and having more of it normally leads to a more prosperous society
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Bored123456789
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(Original post by ByEeek)
I think the thing that we don't have that many Europeans do have is a strong sense of just how brutal the second world war was. WW2 and the events that took place are still very much in the forefront of many young Germans and Europeans. The EU was founded as a way to try and prevent the atrocities of WW2.

Ironically, the "screw you, we can do better than you lot" attitude many Brexiters have, is born from the fact that we won the war. What they fail to take into account of is that we only won it because the Americans bailed us out. I think those who truly believe we can take on the world as an independent nation are in for a big shock in a few years time.

I don't think the EU will split. There is too much at stake, and not just financially.
We didn't have the EU during the wars, we had global allies. We still have global allies. Leaving the EU shouldnt change that. EU countries would be extremely immature and stupid to sever their ties with us just because we are leaving the EU.
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paul514
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(Original post by AperfectBalance)
Yes bar the EU army currently being formed by most of the nations in the EU that is being used to directly oppose NATO reliance and the massive economic power held by the EU and the power over the countries who in turn have their own millitary, It is not like economic power is anything I mean when the people start to suddenly want bread since all they are all starving we can just push the tanks back and fly the planes like a kite back when we run out of money, food and fuel

The EU holds a massive amount of power and in all honesty I dont blame Britain for wanting trade, it is almost like money is a good thing and having more of it normally leads to a more prosperous society
Yea and almost all of the army’s are tin pot pieces of crap. That’s besides my original point anyway
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Stiff Little Fingers
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(Original post by PilgrimOfTruth)
What we are seeing are teenage tantrums and dolly's being thrown out of prams.
From the side looking to leave...

Tell me, which side has spent 8 months arguing whether they should have to honour their debts and had a noisy section arguing we should just walk away? Which side is ignoring the threat to peace established just two decades ago? Which side is so unprepared that sector analyses have taken on a schroedingers car quality?

There's one side in this acting like children, and one that's arrived ready for an adult conversation about our relationship...
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AperfectBalance
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(Original post by paul514)
Yea and almost all of the army’s are tin pot pieces of crap. That’s besides my original point anyway
No they are not, they are rather good armies and they have a large number of advanced weapons and economic power. Economic power drives war far more now, it was why Hitler lost.
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CurlyBen
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(Original post by ByEeek)
I think the thing that we don't have that many Europeans do have is a strong sense of just how brutal the second world war was. WW2 and the events that took place are still very much in the forefront of many young Germans and Europeans. The EU was founded as a way to try and prevent the atrocities of WW2.
Before getting the rose tinted specs out, it's worth remembering that France twice blocked the UK joining in the early years of the EU. In any case, no matter how sincere and worthy its goals, that doesn't give it carte blanche for European politicians to do as they please.

(Original post by Stiff Little Fingers)
There's one side in this acting like children, and one that's arrived ready for an adult conversation about our relationship...
If the EU had been prepared for an adult conversation about our relationship prior to the referendum we might not be in this situation. Instead they were dismissive or dogmatic.
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username3548838
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(Original post by Stiff Little Fingers)
From the side looking to leave...

Tell me, which side has spent 8 months arguing whether they should have to honour their debts and had a noisy section arguing we should just walk away?
Debts?! We will have paid £200bn net to the project. They owe us money from our investments, legally we owe nothing and they should accept shrinking support means they will have to rebudget rather than insist on continuing to fuel corruption with our money!


Which side is ignoring the threat to peace established just two decades ago?
We have mostly had peace in Europe since 1945 thanks to NATO. There are two exceptions.

1-Breakup of Yugoslavia: shows what happens when such diverse areas which want self-government are forced together into a superstate.

2-Ukraine: When the EU tried to expand eastwards, giving false hope and support to Ukrainians to oust a democratic leader; then causing conflict by threatening Russia.

Which side is so unprepared that sector analyses have taken on a schroedingers car quality?

There's one side in this acting like children, and one that's arrived ready for an adult conversation about our relationship...
Every sector can benefit long-term from Brexit: we can regain our fishing waters and control quotas; deregulate financial services and all of industry; get cheaper energy; make our own trade with the world and greatly reduce cost of imports and make exports more competitive; control our own tax system and laws; have a more sensible immigration policy to actually get the skills we need. It's an opportunity to those who want it to be.
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Stiff Little Fingers
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(Original post by Hatter_2)
Debts?! We will have paid £200bn net to the project. They owe us money from our investments, legally we owe nothing and they should accept shrinking support means they will have to rebudget rather than insist on continuing to fuel corruption with our money!
Past spending is irrelevant, that's long gone - the question is of remaining contributions to the current budget period.

We have mostly had peace in Europe since 1945 thanks to NATO. There are two exceptions.

1-Breakup of Yugoslavia: shows what happens when such diverse areas which want self-government are forced together into a superstate.

2-Ukraine: When the EU tried to expand eastwards, giving false hope and support to Ukrainians to oust a democratic leader; then causing conflict by threatening Russia.
Do you not know your British history? The troubles should still be fresh in the mind, peace was only recently secured through the good Friday agreement. Maintaining that is a crucial point of the process of leaving.


Every sector can benefit long-term from Brexit: we can regain our fishing waters and control quotas; deregulate financial services and all of industry; get cheaper energy; make our own trade with the world and greatly reduce cost of imports and make exports more competitive; control our own tax system and laws; have a more sensible immigration policy to actually get the skills we need. It's an opportunity to those who want it to be.
Massive hand waving that ignores the reality of the situation - we currently have a government who may or may not have bothered to evaluate the risks of Brexit to each sector.
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username3548838
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(Original post by Stiff Little Fingers)
Past spending is irrelevant, that's long gone - the question is of remaining contributions to the current budget period.
Then don't use the word debt; the current budget period only goes up to 2020, so it's about £20bn even if we paid it all (although the Lisbon Treaty makes it clear all obligations cease on leaving); the EU owes us about the same so there should be no significant bill.

Even if the government decides to pay one it would soon be a saving from remaining in.


Do you not know your British history? The troubles should still be fresh in the mind, peace was only recently secured through the good Friday agreement. Maintaining that is a crucial point of the process of leaving.
Indeed I spent a lot of time growing up near the NI border, and that happened while we were both EU members. Anyone who puts politics before peace is acting shamefully, it's true there has been a small rise in terrorism since 2014/15 but no desire by either side to go back to the troubles and it would be futile anyway.


Massive hand waving that ignores the reality of the situation - we currently have a government who may or may not have bothered to evaluate the risks of Brexit to each sector.
The government may be incompetent. There are some limited short term risks, huge long term opportunities to be more and more successful.
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SHallowvale
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(Original post by paul514)
Facepalm.... nato holds the power not the European Union.

The idea for the eec was to make economy’s so intertwined it would make war less likely. Ironically that’s all the British want, trade.
NATO is military cooporation, not necessarily dependency.

The EU has cemented economic dependence between its members. Hence war would be extremely unlikely, if not impossible.

A lot of Brexiters don't want trade. They want economic independence, IE the 'Leave without a deal' folk, who think we should go elsewhere.
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ByEeek
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(Original post by paul514)
The idea for the eec was to make economy’s so intertwined it would make war less likely. Ironically that’s all the British want, trade.
Yep - and then with that come a set of rules and then with that comes regulation and before you know it, you have something that looks like the EU.

Everyone talks about trade like it is as simple as going to the supermarket. In a world where no one likes to see one party gaining an unfair advantage, it becomes exceedingly complex. Being out of the EU won't make things simpler. It will make them much much much more complex for UK companies.
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ByEeek
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(Original post by Chaz254)
We didn't have the EU during the wars, we had global allies. We still have global allies. Leaving the EU shouldnt change that. EU countries would be extremely immature and stupid to sever their ties with us just because we are leaving the EU.
I was justifying my reasons for why the EU will not break up. And I stand by them. We only need to see the spat between Trump and May to see how fragile "special" relationships with "global allies" actually are. The potential fall out over 130 characters is unimaginable.
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ByEeek
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(Original post by CurlyBen)

If the EU had been prepared for an adult conversation about our relationship prior to the referendum we might not be in this situation. Instead they were dismissive or dogmatic.
Yeah - I'll take that. I don't think such criticisms are helpful though. We swung a lot of European decisions in our favour, something I think many people like to quietly ignore. It is also reasonable to see that in any alliance of 28 states, there is going to be an element of inertia. You only have to look at our own government for proof that 21 government ministers, supposedly in the same party have huge difficulties agreeing on a consistent policy.

The idea that 28 are able to agree on as much as they do is credit in itself. Perhaps we should point out that unlike the UK, at least the EU have a negotiating position that has been agreed by all members. The position held by the UK government is fluid at best and not helped by the personal opinions of the likes of Gove and Johnson that keep seeping out.
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CurlyBen
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(Original post by ByEeek)
Yeah - I'll take that. I don't think such criticisms are helpful though. We swung a lot of European decisions in our favour, something I think many people like to quietly ignore. It is also reasonable to see that in any alliance of 28 states, there is going to be an element of inertia. You only have to look at our own government for proof that 21 government ministers, supposedly in the same party have huge difficulties agreeing on a consistent policy.

The idea that 28 are able to agree on as much as they do is credit in itself. Perhaps we should point out that unlike the UK, at least the EU have a negotiating position that has been agreed by all members. The position held by the UK government is fluid at best and not helped by the personal opinions of the likes of Gove and Johnson that keep seeping out.
I disagree actually - I think criticism like that is still relevant, particularly when you hear the comments from Barnier and Juncker et al. They're all completely bewildered about how this situation came about (or have decided it was solely down to malicious lying from the likes of Farage). That's why they make comments about how they hope that Britain will one day rejoin, whilst almost simultaneously announcing intentions that virtually guarantee that won't happen. I would love to ask Juncker whether he considers Brexit a price worth paying to maintain freedom of movement in its current form.

As someone who doesn't have a firm position on Brexit (on the day itself my voting intention was almost constantly changing) the most frustrating thing has been the almost complete lack of any kind of balanced view. It's either "the EU is fantastic and must not be questioned" or "the EU is irredeemable and its demise cannot come soon enough".

If, for example, we look at immigration, I didn't once see anyone discuss the fact that Eastern Europeans are essentially working on an entirely different employment paradigm - their earning power is so much greater in the UK that they can work minimum wage for a few months and then go back home and live comfortably for the rest of the year without working (which is precisely what a number of agricultural workers I worked with did). Or, they can work in the UK for a few years and (if they live frugally) can set themselves up quite comfortably back in their home country. Those are options which simply aren't available to a British worker, but the effect of a large pool of willing manpower is to reduce wages - I worked at a factory in 2010 and then at the same factory earlier this year, and the wages for new employees had fallen by 20% in actual terms, let alone relative, in that time. The noticeable difference was the much larger number of Eastern European workers. To balance that, it has to be said that by bringing the wages down that did help the factory to remain competitive and probably prolonged its life (it was recently announced that they're closing it down and outsourcing the work to other countries with lower employment costs anyway). However, nothing like that was ever really talked about, at least that I heard, during the campaign. It was either "immigration is great, lets have more of it" or "immigration is ruining this country, lets completely stop it".

The EU statements on freedom of movement I found particularly irritating. "Freedom of movement has been a principle since the beginning of the EU" "There can be no membership of the single market without freedom of movement". Never any kind of justification - there's certainly no technical reason for that position. "We've always done it this way so we must keep doing it this way" might be acceptable as religious dogma, but it's not appropriate for decision making in the modern world. Hence my objection to the idea that the EU were prepared for an adult conversation about the relationship and future direction of the EU!
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