The Student Room Group

Train fares to rise, biggest rise since 2013

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Original post by Napp
I said half in a flippant manner, try not to take it so literally.
With all due respect though I find that hard to believe, the state of the rails where I live is diabolical. the chances of a train arriving on time and leaving on time is akin to winning the lottery every week for life. Not to mention the constant train breakdowns, the failure to electrify the line, constant signal faults etc. etc. etc. To say that the rail franchises, in general, are anything but coasting [at best] is fallacious.


About as fallacious as you arguing that the whole network and all franchises are bad based on a single line

More stats:

https://www.networkrail.co.uk/who-we-are/how-we-work/performance/public-performance-measure/

85% of trains reach their destination no more than 5 minutes late, or 10 minutes for long distance (basically the main lines) and the worst performer is Govia Thameslink which still manages 79.5%

Cancellation and significant lateness (more than half an hour late) is only 3.7%, the worst offender is again Thameslink at 6.9%

Average lateness for England and Wales is 2.8 minutes, understandably, long distance trains are worst but still only 4.8 minutes late on average

Right Time performance (less than a minute late) nationally is 63.6%. The worst offender is First Hull Trains with only 29% and this stat has the greatest variance

Delay split tells us who is responsible for delays of over 3 minutes, 60% of the time this is state owned Network Rail (Note that this includes things where nobody is to blame such as adverse weather conditions), 29% of the time it is the operator of the train, 11% of the time it is a knock on effect due to other operators.


As to the links, thanks. I will give them a read this evening.
I'm not sure paying someone for not doing as badly as they could have is a very good metric to go by...


I don't know all the details of how operators work out their expected performances and how this influences how the franchise is awarded, but that's how it works, and this is how the subsidies/premiums work:


According to full fact this is being changed

https://fullfact.org/news/do-train-operating-companies-earn-massive-profits/
(edited 6 years ago)
Hi.

Which demographic uses trains the most?
Original post by Jammy Duel
About as fallacious as you arguing that the whole network and all franchises are bad based on a single line

More stats:

https://www.networkrail.co.uk/who-we-are/how-we-work/performance/public-performance-measure/

85% of trains reach their destination no more than 5 minutes late, or 10 minutes for long distance (basically the main lines) and the worst performer is Govia Thameslink which still manages 79.5%

Cancellation and significant lateness (more than half an hour late) is only 3.7%, the worst offender is again Thameslink at 6.9%

Average lateness for England and Wales is 2.8 minutes, understandably, long distance trains are worst but still only 4.8 minutes late on average

Right Time performance (less than a minute late) nationally is 63.6%. The worst offender is First Hull Trains with only 29% and this stat has the greatest variance

Delay split tells us who is responsible for delays of over 3 minutes, 60% of the time this is state owned Network Rail (Note that this includes things where nobody is to blame such as adverse weather conditions), 29% of the time it is the operator of the train, 11% of the time it is a knock on effect due to other operators.




I don't know all the details of how operators work out their expected performances and how this influences how the franchise is awarded, but that's how it works, and this is how the subsidies/premiums work:


According to full fact this is being changed

https://fullfact.org/news/do-train-operating-companies-earn-massive-profits/


I hope you realise that many statistics cited by rail companies are in fact gamed so that you don't waste your time and ours for reading this.
If the science is inherently gamed then why believe in anything?
Reply 24
Original post by SWCoffee
If the science is inherently gamed then why believe in anything?


He clearly did not say anything about all of the 'science' being gamed, merely the statistics cited by the rail companies in this instance. Which lets be fair is a perfectly plausible proposition - it is a well known fact that you can prove or disprove anything at your leisure with statistics.
Obviously.

But speculation is cheap, no?

We are arguing the legitimacy of a piece of evidence against the evidence of, thus far, a void.


No, and the current set-up for railways in this country is insane. We licence private companies to hold the rail franchises, for their own profit, and we pay them direct subsidies.

The East Coast Mainline, which was taken back into government ownership/control in 2009, was the best performing railways until it was reprivatised in 2015. It had the lowest fare rises, the highest rate of capital investment, the lowest subsidy of all the lines and even returned a profit to the treasury.

The fact that this is possible shows just how incompetent and corrupt the private railway franchisees are. Here's a good article on the outrageousness of the East Coast Main Line privatisation;

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/nov/27/privatising-east-coast-rail-rip-off
(edited 6 years ago)
Biggest issue with trains are they are always late or not available at all, because they are on strike too frequently.
Original post by IamJacksContempt
I hope you realise that many statistics cited by rail companies are in fact gamed so that you don't waste your time and ours for reading this.


"I don't like what the statistics say so I'll accuse somebody who they don't come from of fiddling with them"
Again, what are the affected demographics, lol.

This is all speculative.
Original post by AlexanderHam
No, and the current set-up for railways in this country is insane. We licence private companies to hold the rail franchises, for their own profit, and we pay them direct subsidies.

The East Coast Mainline, which was taken back into government ownership/control in 2009, was the best performing railways until it was reprivatised in 2015. It had the lowest fare rises, the highest rate of capital investment, the lowest subsidy of all the lines and even returned a profit to the treasury.

The fact that this is possible shows just how incompetent and corrupt the private railway franchisees are. Here's a good article on the outrageousness of the East Coast Main Line privatisation;

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/nov/27/privatising-east-coast-rail-rip-off


Is this the East Coast Mainline that 2016-17 was making net contributions to the government even after splitting the National Rail subsidy between the franchises rather than keeping it separate?

Original post by Napp
He clearly did not say anything about all of the 'science' being gamed, merely the statistics cited by the rail companies in this instance. Which lets be fair is a perfectly plausible proposition - it is a well known fact that you can prove or disprove anything at your leisure with statistics.


It's not like he is accusing Official Statistics (some of which are National Statistics, which means they are certified as impartial and objective) of being rigged by private entities that do not play a part in the statistical analysis because he does not like what they say. For reference, Offical statistics are supposed to follow the following Code of Conduct and are designated National Statistics if compliance is certified as such by the UK Statistics Authority: https://www.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/images-codeofpracticeforofficialstatisticsjanuary2009_tcm97-25306.pdf
Original post by Jammy Duel
Is this the East Coast Mainline


In the last couple of weeks the government decided to terminate the franchise early. Only two years in and they've pretty much gone bankrupt, after 7 years of East Coast Main Line being the best performing railway in the country.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/nov/29/east-coast-rail-franchise-terminated-three-years-early-virgin-trains

The conclusions could not be clearer; when it was in government hands it was running extremely efficiently. Fares were low, subsidies were low, capital investment was high, profits were returned to Treasury.

Once it went back into private ownership, they screwed it up completely and now the government is revoking the franchise. We bailed out the private sector in 2009 by taking East Coast into government ownership. Spent years fixing up the franchise, making capital investments, running it efficiently. We re-privatise it and now we have to bail them out again.

Is that the same East Coast line? :smile: What exactly are you crowing about?
(edited 6 years ago)
Original post by Jammy Duel
"I don't like what the statistics say so I'll accuse somebody who they don't come from of fiddling with them"


You really are that easily manipulated aren't you?

Not surprising tbh considering your overall political outlook.

Flr example let's just ignore the fact that they're only measuring journey times at terminus. Therefore a train running over 5 minutes late simply skips a couple of stations (stranding passengers on the platform who wanted to board as well as trapping passengers who want to disembark).

But according to your statistics the train would have ran perfectly on time. Doesn't exactly represent the overall passenger journey does it?

5 minutes itself is a pretty large margine for being late as well. You with Japan or Switzerland would have such wide margins?

Also, most of the figures the rail companies are an aggregated across the day and the week and so don’t take into account the number of people using a train. Therefore trains carrying hundreds of people can be late regularly, but trains on the same route that run late at night or at the weekend and carry only a handful of passengers can arrive on time, essentially masking the total failure of other services.


But hurrr I'm Jammy Duel, look at the BIG numbers those train people are saying, must mean it's good, they'd have no reason to manipulate them whatsoever :rolleyes:


Do you even regularly commute by train?
Brexit has increased inflation, so is the main cause.

The simplest thing would be that fuel duty had to increase by the same level as rail fares each year.
Think we will have the same problem when London Midland becomes West Midlands trains, it will be late or cancelled.
Reply 36
Original post by KingHarold
Brexit has increased inflation, so is the main cause.

The simplest thing would be that fuel duty had to increase by the same level as rail fares each year.


Not to mention that thanks to Brexit the pound fell by 15% [give or take] and since oil is priced in dollars it went up accordingly.
Original post by FriendlyPenguin
Airports are incredibly expensive, as is pilot training. What training does a train driver need? Nothing much, a computer could probably do it, if it weren't for the unions.

Train tracks between two stations are capable of transporting vastly more people than a flight path between two airports could safely transport; and the cost in fuel must surely be much lower.

Also you have the additional security measures that have to be taken with air flight, surely that must be pretty expensive too.


So why is it cheaper to travel by air than by train? Think about trains just for a second. You have to pay someone to sell you a ticket, someone to dispatch the train, someone to drive and guard the train, a whole fleet of signallers and a small army of engineers who not only maintain the train, but the tracks and more besides.

Sure - airports are expensive, but they are cheap compared to the cost of building and maintaining a railway and you require fewer air traffic controllers to direct a plane to Greece than you do to direct a train from Manchester to London. There are four signal boxes manned by at least two men just in Stockport!

The reason train travel is so expensive is because it is expensive and as you rightly put it, unions have a stranglehold on the industry.
Original post by IamJacksContempt
Okay answer this simple question would you. Why is it better to send hundreds of millions of pounds to foreign governments for running our railways, rather than into our own treasury?


I never made such a claim.
Original post by FriendlyPenguin
Are you being facetious? All that can be said for air flight too


I am not being facetious. I am simply trying to explain why you can fly to Nice for £90 return and yet it costs £300 to travel to London and back. Train travel is more expensive than flying - that is why it costs more despite billions in government subsidies.

Sure, an airport costs billions to build, but the number of planes that use it spread the cost and with additional revenue like parking and shops they make a tidy amount of profit. The cost to the traveller of travelling is negligible. By contrast stations are not that profitable. People try to spend as little time as possible and most no longer have parking or hotels attached. For example.

Unless you are trying to tell me that there is some sort of conspiracy?
(edited 6 years ago)

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