Would a more centrist Labour be polling higher now? Watch

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ChaoticButterfly
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#21
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#21
(Original post by Plagioclase)
I'm sorry that I'm not happy with having a choice between disaster, and an ever-so-slightly smaller disaster. Labour knows fully what a terrible decision Brexit is (even if the leader unfortunately doesn't appear to think so), yet they continue to pander to the misinformed and the bigoted rather than actually standing up for what's good for the country. It's impossible for me, as a scientist and a young person, to vote for them. So yes, I have - and will continue - to vote Lib Dem until Labour stops being complete cowards.
That's all very noble but it wont stop Brexit. The country was also not fine pre-referendum and the lib dems played a large part in creating the conditions that allowed Brexit to happen. The lib dems pandered to the misinformed with their austerity economics and it resulted in brexit. As the science shows, the same austerity that has killed 120000 people http://www.independent.co.uk/news/he...-a8057306.html

I'd like to find a democracy that does not pander to the misinformed, it is they after all who have the vote.

If your aim is to stop Brexit public opinion has to shift decisively in favor of it. In this sense being slightly more Remain than the Tories, and this bit is important, let the Tories own the ****fest that will commence whilst leaving all options open is a strategy for doing that. When you enemy is making a mess don't interrupt them. Labour could be playing more upfront role in trying to lead public opinion rather than just reacting to it I agree, but that is not without its risks. The fact labour is currently a balancing act of various views on Brexit stops any real hard position being taken. Which is both good and bad if you want to Remain in the EU. Options are still there for Remainers.

The Labour position is good politics for right now. There is still the argument that taking an unpopular strong remain position now may help in the future when it is a disaster. But I don't really trusts the "misinformed bigots" ability to blame the Tories. Xenophobia will just win the day again and it will be someone else fault. A hard remain line requires the electorate to be something that you yourself have identified they are not.

I'm sure Corbyn would be happy to trade remaining being in the EU, or a soft Brexit, if it meant he could be PM.

We're ****ed more or less and compared to all the other actors, especially the bloody lib dems, Labour is the least to blame for this.
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username3672344
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#22
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#22
(Original post by Davij038)
Well the next election will be 2022 which is ages away so who knows what will happen. The Tories will have a new leader and a new manifesto. If both of these are as dreadful as the last (on terms of electoral success) then possibly Corbyn may have a shot- although he’ll be pretty old- a younger corbynite may prove better at taking over the reigns.

I don’t think labour can win unless brexit is as bad as the experts predict it to be or there is a major disaster and the Tories elect somebody useless / uninspiring though.
Put it this way, if Labour replaced Corbyn with Andy Burnham (I know he's not an MP but just say he was), would they poll higher?
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Davij038
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#23
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#23
(Original post by DeBruyne18)
Put it this way, if Labour replaced Corbyn with Andy Burnham (I know he's not an MP but just say he was), would they poll higher?
No I don’t think so. He’s a pretty loathsome individual who’d sell his own mother if it meant votes. Also he’s responsible for selling off parts of the NHS and voted for the Iraq war which most of labours base are vehemently against.

Coopers pretty much in the same boat although Is a slightly better person.

Liz Kendall is a real possibility on the other hand but most of the base hate her for not being socialist enough. Also it seems labour have a problem with electing women😂 If Dan Jarvis (who is actually overrated) was able to claw his way in and purge the Hard Left snd adopted some stricter immigration controls whilst keeping much of the left wing economic policy I think that could be a vote winner.
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Plagioclase
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#24
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#24
(Original post by ChaoticButterfly)
That's all very noble but it wont stop Brexit. The country was also not fine pre-referendum and the lib dems played a large part in creating the conditions that allowed Brexit to happen. The lib dems pandered to the misinformed with their austerity economics and it resulted in brexit. As the science shows, the same austerity that has killed 120000 people http://www.independent.co.uk/news/he...-a8057306.html

I'd like to find a democracy that does not pander to the misinformed, it is they after all who have the vote.

If your aim is to stop Brexit public opinion has to shift decisively in favor of it. In this sense being slightly more Remain than the Tories, and this bit is important, let the Tories own the ****fest that will commence whilst leaving all options open is a strategy for doing that. When you enemy is making a mess don't interrupt them. Labour could be playing more upfront role in trying to lead public opinion rather than just reacting to it I agree, but that is not without its risks. The fact labour is currently a balancing act of various views on Brexit stops any real hard position being taken. Which is both good and bad if you want to Remain in the EU. Options are still there for Remainers.

The Labour position is good politics for right now. There is still the argument that taking an unpopular strong remain position now may help in the future when it is a disaster. But I don't really trusts the "misinformed bigots" ability to blame the Tories. Xenophobia will just win the day again and it will be someone else fault. A hard remain line requires the electorate to be something that you yourself have identified they are not.

I'm sure Corbyn would be happy to trade remaining being in the EU, or a soft Brexit, if it meant he could be PM.

We're ****ed more or less and compared to all the other actors, especially the bloody lib dems, Labour is the least to blame for this.
I'm not trying to be noble, I'm voting Lib Dem after they screwed me over with tuition fees. It's a pragmatic decision. It's all well and good saying "let the Tories cause a disaster and they'll be held responsible for it", apart from two big problems: (1) whoever takes over after May will simply blame the inevitable catastrophe on Labour (somehow) or May's government being too soft with the EU and the public will probably go along with it and (2) even if the Tories failed to blame-shift, a catastrophe is a catastrophe and the knowledge that things might be fine in a couple of decades won't be hugely helpful.
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Napp
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To be honest i take the view that theyd be even more unpopular. Corbyns popularity seems to largely stem from the fact he is a 'rebel' of sorts and isnt part of the traditional establishment. All of the other potential contenders are just more of the same boorish disconnected politicians.
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DBR247
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#26
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Labour have an excellent candidate in the form of Keir Starmer. Starmer has done an excellent job of holding the government to account on Brexit and as an experienced lawyer understands the challenges we face unlike the current PM. He would capture the middle ground of British Politics as Corbyn is too far to the left for the majority of people in this country.
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Jammy Duel
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#27
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Difficult one, for every student who would vote Labour because of Corbyn there is somebody who would vote Tory to keep him out. Moving right would get rid of that student vote, however Blair showed what happens when there is weak Conservative leadership and a Labour leader people feel would be safe to give the economy to.
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Gwilym101
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#28
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#28
(Original post by Jammy Duel)
Difficult one, for every student who would vote Labour because of Corbyn there is somebody who would vote Tory to keep him out. Moving right would get rid of that student vote, however Blair showed what happens when there is weak Conservative leadership and a Labour leader people feel would be safe to give the economy to.
Under 25s were one of the few demographics that didn't vote for Corbyn in the labour leadership election. You could make a Dalek leader of the labour party and students still wouldn't vote tory the way they repeatedly belittle or screw them over.
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Jammy Duel
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#29
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(Original post by Gwilym101)
Under 25s were one of the few demographics that didn't vote for Corbyn in the labour leadership election. You could make a Dalek leader of the labour party and students still wouldn't vote tory the way they repeatedly belittle or screw them over.
However with a Blair student turnout would likely plummet again. It was the turnout boost that did the work in June, not a change in student VIs

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username3672344
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#30
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We're in a bit of a funny situation in the sense that the two man parties have the highest combined vote in decades, yet they are both seemingly rather unpopular as a whole including with large numbers of their own voters!
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Arran90
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#31
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(Original post by Napp)
To be honest i take the view that theyd be even more unpopular. Corbyns popularity seems to largely stem from the fact he is a 'rebel' of sorts and isnt part of the traditional establishment. All of the other potential contenders are just more of the same boorish disconnected politicians.
Very true. Corbyn has attracted thousands of people (largely young naive and economically hard done by) who would never otherwise support Labour and most would sit at home on election day rather than vote.
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ChaoticButterfly
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#32
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(Original post by Plagioclase)
I'm not trying to be noble, I'm voting Lib Dem after they screwed me over with tuition fees. It's a pragmatic decision. It's all well and good saying "let the Tories cause a disaster and they'll be held responsible for it", apart from two big problems: (1) whoever takes over after May will simply blame the inevitable catastrophe on Labour (somehow) or May's government being too soft with the EU and the public will probably go along with it and (2) even if the Tories failed to blame-shift, a catastrophe is a catastrophe and the knowledge that things might be fine in a couple of decades won't be hugely helpful.
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/940654214799339520

71% of REMAINERS don't want to revert Brexit.

That's what we are dealing with. In this situation the best thing to go for is remaining in some sort of customs union or single market. You can still call it Brexit, but it reverts total disastor. Which Ireland is probably going to make happen anyway regardless of who is in government. The other option is turning the UK into some sort of nightmare dystopian tax heaven for the super rich.

I agree though, there is no good outcome to this. Only least worse ones. But we are not a technocracy. Everything Brexit has to get the approval of the plebs and the plebs want Brexit. There is a slight chance I suppose that things do change and the Lib Dems current anti-brexit position pays back in dividend and they manage to become a powerful bargaining chip in a future election, agreeing only to go into coalition on the grounds of reversing Brexit. But this is the Lib Dems we are talking about, not the DUP. They proved so ineffective and useless in 2010. I still think the only way for Brexit to be stopped is if Labour senses the way to power is to reverse Brexit or provide another final referendum, but I can't see that happening.
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Arran90
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#33
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When it comes to Brexit one of the acid tests for Labour is immigration and freedom of movement of people. Labour has to realise that a high proportion of the traditional Labour demographic, along with a significant fraction of floating voters and ethnic minorities, voted Leave because of this. Unless they come up with a policy comparable to that of the Conservatives then they will badly lose votes in places that matter.

Something I have noticed about the 2017 general election is Labour stacked up big majorities in certain constituencies but failed to win the election because they failed to win enough votes in the marginal and battleground constituencies.
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Rakas21
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#34
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(Original post by DeBruyne18)
Hear me out!

Since the 2017 election, the two parties have been pretty much level pegging in the polls. The majority showing Labour with a small lead, but some recently showing the Tories either level or with a small lead themselves. Labour haven't pulled clear, which they may have been expecting to.

I've seen a lot of commentators in the press such as Osborne and even centre-left folk claiming that if Labour had a more centre-left leader, that they would be way out ahead. Then again, I don't know if a more centrist leader would be as popular with younger voters.

We seem to be in a similar position to 2005, an unpopular government with an equally unpopular opposition.

Thoughts?
It's hard to say objectively since the rules of the game have changed with the collapse of both the Lib Dem and Kipper parties. This has meant that FPTP has been allowed to force a 2 party state back upon us. With less worrying about the Lib Dem's both parties have more room to manoeuvre.

If we look at hard data then both parties have fairly popular policies but the public still trust the Tories on key issues more than Labour (health being the biggest lead for Labour), May also leads Corbyn and Hammond leads McDonnel. This suggests to me that Corbyn is probably a drag but the two party nature has kept the vote with them or alternatively that the Tory performance is being understated by DK (one of the big reasons Labour dropped to the mid twenties were their voters opting for DK and being excluded or realocated in polls).

Equally though, a lot of the policies of the left economically are quite popular so although Corbyn may be a drag a more centrist leader may have less popular policies even if personal approval ratings are higher.

I would probably say that both parties would be advised to keep their current economic positions but seek more articulate and dynamic leadership.

(Original post by Davij038)
Well the next election will be 2022 which is ages away so who knows what will happen. The Tories will have a new leader and a new manifesto. If both of these are as dreadful as the last (on terms of electoral success) then possibly Corbyn may have a shot- although he’ll be pretty old- a younger corbynite may prove better at taking over the reigns.

I don’t think labour can win unless brexit is as bad as the experts predict it to be or there is a major disaster and the Tories elect somebody useless / uninspiring though.
This.

Assuming a summer 2019 election I think that if the Tories are level pegging when Brexit completes and they can change leader then with a bigger economy focus, they could well regain a small majority.
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Rakas21
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#35
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(Original post by ChaoticButterfly)
That's all very noble but it wont stop Brexit. The country was also not fine pre-referendum and the lib dems played a large part in creating the conditions that allowed Brexit to happen. The lib dems pandered to the misinformed with their austerity economics and it resulted in brexit. As the science shows, the same austerity that has killed 120000 people http://www.independent.co.uk/news/he...-a8057306.html

I'd like to find a democracy that does not pander to the misinformed, it is they after all who have the vote.

If your aim is to stop Brexit public opinion has to shift decisively in favor of it. In this sense being slightly more Remain than the Tories, and this bit is important, let the Tories own the ****fest that will commence whilst leaving all options open is a strategy for doing that. When you enemy is making a mess don't interrupt them. Labour could be playing more upfront role in trying to lead public opinion rather than just reacting to it I agree, but that is not without its risks. The fact labour is currently a balancing act of various views on Brexit stops any real hard position being taken. Which is both good and bad if you want to Remain in the EU. Options are still there for Remainers.

The Labour position is good politics for right now. There is still the argument that taking an unpopular strong remain position now may help in the future when it is a disaster. But I don't really trusts the "misinformed bigots" ability to blame the Tories. Xenophobia will just win the day again and it will be someone else fault. A hard remain line requires the electorate to be something that you yourself have identified they are not.

I'm sure Corbyn would be happy to trade remaining being in the EU, or a soft Brexit, if it meant he could be PM.

We're ****ed more or less and compared to all the other actors, especially the bloody lib dems, Labour is the least to blame for this.
The dynamics of a post Brexit bad deal "s fest" are interesting in that although they give Labour an opportunity to jump with a position, I can see the possibility that that Tories would love an excuse to stir up nationalism for an election.
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Arran90
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It's possible that if Labour gets a more centrist leader and the party commits itself to Brexit with no free movement of people then a large slice of Labour membership and support could go to the Green Party which will try to follow in Corbyn's footsteps and commit itself to rejoining the EU.

The Lib-Dems are probably better placed to pick up pro-EU Conservative voters in places like Oxfordshire and Hampshire.
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username3672344
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#37
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(Original post by Arran90)
It's possible that if Labour gets a more centrist leader and the party commits itself to Brexit with no free movement of people then a large slice of Labour membership and support could go to the Green Party which will try to follow in Corbyn's footsteps and commit itself to rejoining the EU.

The Lib-Dems are probably better placed to pick up pro-EU Conservative voters in places like Oxfordshire and Hampshire.
Yes, the Labour Party needs the Lib Dems to recover and start taking Tory votes.


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stoyfan
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#38
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To me, Labour is too left wing and the conservative are too right wing.

I would vote for Labour or the Conservatives if they were more centrist.
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Jammy Duel
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(Original post by stoyfan)
To me, Labour is too left wing and the conservative are too right wing.

I would vote for Labour or the Conservatives if they were more centrist.
If the Tories were to move even further left how would they be distinguished from the lib Dems after brexit. Similarly Labour moving right

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stoyfan
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(Original post by Jammy Duel)
If the Tories were to move even further left how would they be distinguished from the lib Dems after brexit. Similarly Labour moving right

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In this day of age the Lib Dems are rather irrelevant and I don't think they will recover.

The main differentiation between the conservatives and Lib Dems is that the conservatives are more pro-brexit than the liberals. Idk for labour.
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