Frank Peters
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#1
Report Thread starter 3 years ago
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i want to know why Russia doesnt want Ukraine to join NATO

I have tried to look for answers but what I have read doesnt mean anything to my question and many just write that it threatens russia and so on and so forth.

so why doesnt Russia want this? A level geo prospective
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Napp
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It is a very long and complex issue but the salient points for you to explore would be;
- NATO is still seem in Russia as a hostile relic from the Cold War that is anathema to the federation. Having it encroaching upto Russia's boarder is seem as a direct threat to sovereignty.
- Russia do not want offensive military equipment such as ABM sites, heavy weapons etc. etc. stuck next door to them which could possibly be used against them.
- Before they retook Crimea the thought of loosing Crimea to NATO [which is the base for one of their fleets and their warm water port] was seen as intolerable
- The Kremlin understood that NATO promised never to move eastwards if they peacefully allowed German reunification

Essentially it boils down to NATO being seen, rightly in ones view, as a threat to Russian interests and having it encroach into what the Kremlin sees as its sphere of privileged interests was and is simply intolerable.

I would recommend reading the work of Trenin from the Carnegie center in Moscow - he gives a very good and detailed analysis of why Russia will not tolerate NATO enveloping Ukraine.
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Frank Peters
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(Original post by Napp)
It is a very long and complex issue but the salient points for you to explore would be;
- NATO is still seem in Russia as a hostile relic from the Cold War that is anathema to the federation. Having it encroaching upto Russia's boarder is seem as a direct threat to sovereignty.
- Russia do not want offensive military equipment such as ABM sites, heavy weapons etc. etc. stuck next door to them which could possibly be used against them.
- Before they retook Crimea the thought of loosing Crimea to NATO [which is the base for one of their fleets and their warm water port] was seen as intolerable
- The Kremlin understood that NATO promised never to move eastwards if they peacefully allowed German reunification

Essentially it boils down to NATO being seen, rightly in ones view, as a threat to Russian interests and having it encroach into what the Kremlin sees as its sphere of privileged interests was and is simply intolerable.

I would recommend reading the work of Trenin from the Carnegie center in Moscow - he gives a very good and detailed analysis of why Russia will not tolerate NATO enveloping Ukraine.

wow thank you so much!

one last question

How would this relate to energy security and the fact that Ukraine has 3 russian pipelines going through it.

do you think that Ukraine would then be able to threaten russia to obey its increased price for Ukraine to allow the Russian pipes to run through it?
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Napp
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Report 3 years ago
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(Original post by Frank Peters)
wow thank you so much!

one last question

How would this relate to energy security and the fact that Ukraine has 3 russian pipelines going through it.

do you think that Ukraine would then be able to threaten russia to obey its increased price for Ukraine to allow the Russian pipes to run through it?
Well under the 3rd energy package [or some similar name] the EU is essentially trying to diversify away from Russian gas an example would be Poland beginning to import from USA. The so called Russian energy weapon has been an issue for a while now, especially for countries like Germany who import a massive amount of Russian gas. Any conflict in or with ukraine endangers the supplies no end.

The energy security issue mainly comes from Ukraine being a problematic transit country in the past in that it stole gas meant for Europe from the pipelines and also didnt honour other contractual terms and thus Russia shut off the gas which of course effects countries down stream.

As for Ukraine being able to threaten Russia? Not really in my opinion. They can pinch gas but when it comes to any major threats they would harm ukraine more than Russia as Ukraine earns a lot of money from transit fees. Equally Russia is diversifying from Ukraine by expanding north stream, they tried to build south stream but it has been pooh poohed somewhat. and other pipe lines not to mention it is looking east for its business a lot more now.
I believe it was today though that an emergency shipment of Russian gas arrived in Kent after the north sea pipeline was shut down and the Austrian transit was damaged in an explosion.
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