First year of applications, I was rejected by Cambridge, UCL and Bristol. Sussex and York offered me places (AAA), and Warwick offered me an interview, but I didn't go as I'd already decided to reapply.
This year, I had offers from Oxford, Sussex and Bristol, and an invitation to interview by UCL (which came on the day of my Oxford offer). I withdrew from Warwick, so I don't know what they would have done this time round.
I am none the wiser as to how unis make their decisions!