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betfair trading vs matched betting watch

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    hi guys,
    I have been doing some matched betting and making some decent money over the past few months but i feel matched betting only gets you so far until it becomes more difficult, i have been looking at betfair trading on caanberry website and i am wondering what are my odds at something like this? does anyone have any guidance or info regarding this?
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    (Original post by rowabf)
    hi guys,
    I have been doing some matched betting and making some decent money over the past few months but i feel matched betting only gets you so far until it becomes more difficult, i have been looking at betfair trading on caanberry website and i am wondering what are my odds at something like this? does anyone have any guidance or info regarding this?
    Betfair trading is very high risk for very little return. You'll need to be betting £10,000s to get any sort of noticeable return.
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    (Original post by Reue)
    Betfair trading is very high risk for very little return. You'll need to be betting £10,000s to get any sort of noticeable return.
    Do you know what you're talking about? Betfair trading is very low risk, but the downside is it's also very low reward. Successful traders are putting huge sums through the market to make very low returns at very low risk.

    You can test strategies with a tiny amount of money, before you scale up. Worst case scenario is you lose maybe £10? Which is basically nothing.

    (Original post by rowabf)
    hi guys,
    I have been doing some matched betting and making some decent money over the past few months but i feel matched betting only gets you so far until it becomes more difficult, i have been looking at betfair trading on caanberry website and i am wondering what are my odds at something like this? does anyone have any guidance or info regarding this?
    Personally I wouldn't bother. I tried it myself for a few months, and actually getting hold of any decent information is almost impossible. There's too much conflicting and misleading information on the internet (and it's virtually impossible to tell what is good and what is bad).

    The successful traders also don't reveal their secrets. I've watched all of caanberry's and Peter Webb's Youtube videos. I was literally none the wiser after them - I didn't learn anything useful. They skirt around issues and don't actually reveal anything valuable. Many of their videos talk about money management, discipline etc. which is only useful once you have profitable strategies (which 99.9% of people will never achieve anyway!).

    Sorry for being negative. You can give it a go, but be prepared to run into a brick wall.

    As for your odds of success, well same as the odds in any extremely competitive field (examples such as music industry, financial trading, business etc.) - very very low. The rewards are huge for the tiny % of people who make it to the top, but getting to the top is virtually impossible and requires a lot of natural talent, hard work and luck.

    Don't let this put you off! Just saying that the odds are stacked against you, even if you go in with an extremely positive and open-minded outlook.
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    (Original post by snowman77)
    Do you know what you're talking about? Betfair trading is very low risk, but the downside is it's also very low reward. Successful traders are putting huge sums through the market to make very low returns at very low risk.
    I run a Betfair/Smarkets balance into 5 figures, I'm well aware of what I'm talking about.

    It is very high risk because of the numbers involved. One slip up could cost thousands.
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    (Original post by Reue)
    I run a Betfair/Smarkets balance into 5 figures, I'm well aware of what I'm talking about.

    It is very high risk because of the numbers involved. One slip up could cost thousands.
    It's not high risk. Swings and variance are tiny compared to other forms of gambling. If you use strict bankroll management, losses (in terms of % of your bankroll) will be extremely minimal.

    Newbies can start with as little as £10 to test strategies. You don't need thousands.
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    (Original post by snowman77)
    It's not high risk. Swings and variance are tiny compared to other forms of gambling. If you use strict bankroll management, losses (in terms of % of your bankroll) will be extremely minimal.

    Newbies can start with as little as £10 to test strategies. You don't need thousands.
    Again; mistakes can be made which costs thousands.
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    (Original post by Reue)
    Again; mistakes can be made which costs thousands.
    Seems like we have 2 different definitions of risk. I'm comparing it to other forms of gambling and you're using risk in an absolute sense.

    Do you or do you not agree it's low variance? Compared to say poker or forex trading, where swings can be massive.
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    (Original post by snowman77)
    Seems like we have 2 different definitions of risk. I'm comparing it to other forms of gambling and you're using risk in an absolute sense.

    Do you or do you not agree it's low variance? Compared to say poker or forex trading, where swings can be massive.
    It seems that way.

    Yes, low variance in that sense.
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    betfair trader here
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    volatility is a 2 way *****, high volatility presents more opportunity, but also more risk, in which case you should downsize your stakes if you expect a volatile market.

    you can go for straight betting if you dont wanna stare at your screen all day.

    after trying stocks and crypto, when it comes to pure cold trading i still prefer betfair, comms on profit only maximize the trader's edge.
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    (Original post by Reue)
    Again; mistakes can be made which costs thousands.
    well mistakes trading all asset classes will costs thousands. this is not unique to betfair.
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    (Original post by HucktheForde)
    volatility is a 2 way *****, high volatility presents more opportunity, but also more risk, in which case you should downsize your stakes if you expect a volatile market.

    you can go for straight betting if you dont wanna stare at your screen all day.

    after trying stocks and crypto, when it comes to pure cold trading i still prefer betfair, comms on profit only maximize the trader's edge.
    Yes exactly.

    High volatility ---> bigger wins but also bigger losses

    Low volatility ---> smaller wins but also smaller losses

    Betfair trading as a whole is low volatility. Do you trade Betfair for a living? That's pretty impressive if you do. If so, which markets do you trade?
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    (Original post by snowman77)
    Yes exactly.

    High volatility ---> bigger wins but also bigger losses

    Low volatility ---> smaller wins but also smaller losses

    Betfair trading as a whole is low volatility. Do you trade Betfair for a living? That's pretty impressive if you do. If so, which markets do you trade?
    irish racing or in play racing has high volatility.

    no i dont do it for a living. football and horse markets.

    i started trading cryptocurrency market but the liquid is poor, cant go in with large stakes but still made some money nonetheless.
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    (Original post by HucktheForde)
    irish racing or in play racing has high volatility.

    no i dont do it for a living. football and horse markets.

    i started trading cryptocurrency market but the liquid is poor, cant go in with large stakes but still made some money nonetheless.
    Interesting. Not singling you out in particular, but I notice that many people on forums speak with such authority on trading. Then when you press them further, they either don't do it for a living, or vague terms like "make decent money" (which could mean absolutely anything). It would be nice to hear some strategies from people who do it for a living! (even though they probably wouldn't reveal such info)
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    (Original post by snowman77)
    Interesting. Not singling you out in particular, but I notice that many people on forums speak with such authority on trading. Then when you press them further, they either don't do it for a living, or vague terms like "make decent money" (which could mean absolutely anything). It would be nice to hear some strategies from people who do it for a living! (even though they probably wouldn't reveal such info)
    i dont do it for a living because

    >i like security, it makes me more fearless when taking risk.
    >i dont have a huge bank
    >i do **** up sometimes doing stupid things, imaging trading being your main source of income, you would be destroyed.
    >Over the years of trading i figured out the same effort and time you spend in perfecting your skills in the world of betting, if you spent it on something else like getting a professional cert or MBA, you would have made more money

    I also didnt say i am making decent money, i am making some money, decent or not is objective.

    Strategies are just a course of pre-planned action, it doesnt mean much. Things and markets change all the time, so do strategies.

    The reason why Caan berry and Peter Webb did not reveal much about their strategies (Caan Berry certainly did, he always speak of backing horses that look keen to lead the pack during the pre race session on twitter) is because they dont have any fixed strategies. They just look at the price and guess what causes it to move to the current price and think if it is justified for it to be priced so.
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    (Original post by HucktheForde)
    i dont do it for a living because

    >i like security, it makes me more fearless when taking risk.
    >i dont have a huge bank
    >i do **** up sometimes doing stupid things, imaging trading being your main source of income, you would be destroyed.
    >Over the years of trading i figured out the same effort and time you spend in perfecting your skills in the world of betting, if you spent it on something else like getting a professional cert or MBA, you would have made more money

    I also didnt say i am making decent money, i am making some money, decent or not is objective.

    Strategies are just a course of pre-planned action, it doesnt mean much. Things and markets change all the time, so do strategies.

    The reason why Caan berry and Peter Webb did not reveal much about their strategies (Caan Berry certainly did, he always speak of backing horses that look keen to lead the pack during the pre race session on twitter) is because they dont have any fixed strategies. They just look at the price and guess what causes it to move to the current price and think if it is justified for it to be priced so.
    Sorry, I wasn't singling you out in particular, it was more a general point about people on forums!

    "They just look at the price and guess what causes it to move to the current price and think if it is justified for it to be priced so."

    How do you know what causes it to move and think if it is justified to be at that price? All you have is a graph (or in case of horse racing, multiple graphs) and some volume figures. There's very little to go on.
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    (Original post by HucktheForde)
    well mistakes trading all asset classes will costs thousands. this is not unique to betfair.
    Most trades cannot go to worthless in a minute.
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    (Original post by Reue)
    Most trades cannot go to worthless in a minute.
    yea, thats true for all asses classes, betfair or not. even though options do go to worthless in a minute depending on the timing of your purchase..most trades cannot go to worthless in a minute, just a small minority of them like in play trading / expiring options and stuff.
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    (Original post by snowman77)
    Sorry, I wasn't singling you out in particular, it was more a general point about people on forums!

    "They just look at the price and guess what causes it to move to the current price and think if it is justified for it to be priced so."

    How do you know what causes it to move and think if it is justified to be at that price? All you have is a graph (or in case of horse racing, multiple graphs) and some volume figures. There's very little to go on.
    thats the trick, no one can ever be 100% right...you can either check whats going on the race track, if a horse is acting up, sweating or refuse to be mounted causing a certain horse to drift.

    or you can observe the ladder and see if there is "genuine money" or someone trying to manipulate the market, or there are some shewed money coming into the market.

    its really really hard to tell unless you are experience and sensitive towards price like peter webb and caan berry.
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    (Original post by HucktheForde)
    thats the trick, no one can ever be 100% right...you can either check whats going on the race track, if a horse is acting up, sweating or refuse to be mounted causing a certain horse to drift.

    or you can observe the ladder and see if there is "genuine money" or someone trying to manipulate the market, or there are some shewed money coming into the market.

    its really really hard to tell unless you are experience and sensitive towards price like peter webb and caan berry.
    I've heard of both those. The first one doesn't work because of people at the track/those with ultra-fast data feeds and the second one doesn't work because it's too easy for big traders to manipulate the market to make it appear like big money is coming in for a horse, when it's actually not.

    I've heard caanberry and peter webb say many times that each market requires a different strategy and don't try to trade every race. What strategies are needed for the different types of horse races and which races should you avoid trading?
 
 
 
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