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Brexit is an idiotic mistake - calendar week 8 summary watch

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    (Original post by Quady)
    So far my mortgage interest has been cut and dividends boosted.

    Whats not to like?
    And that's as a result of brexit because...?
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    Toyota and Airbus also announced massive investment in the UK this week. The Pound has more or less recovered from its post brexit fall (which was caused by Bank of England cutting rates not brexit)

    Sure the pound is lower than its $2 high, but this is a trend on going from 2007 and not brexit related.

    Unemployment is at lowest levels since 1975 https://www.ft.com/content/9433b360-...2-122c57916f26

    The EU27 are already worrying about, how fill the UK budgetary black hole. Having delusions and making silly demands is all part of an effective negotiation.

    We hold the money, so we hold all the cards. You think Western Europe is more worried about brexit, or the rising nationalism in eastern europe ?

    the UK is already a pretty famous country with investor friendly laws and market based economy, the only countries that need the EU are mafia states that need EU laws to stop their political system going fully corrupt eg italy, romania or are unknown eg eastern europe or WW2 guilt eg Germany
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    Well the dividends boosted because large numbers of FTSE 100 companies earnings are not in sterling, and their dividends are declared in say dollars, so if one say holds Shell paying say $0.47 a quarter dividend that dividend, in sterling terms, has jumped post June 2016. This is of course coupled with good growth in the RofW. Of course in dollar terms it may be the same. Same applies with HSBC and a few others.

    However inflation is galloping along to erode this jump, inflation ,only partly being impacted by exchange rates (as the basket of goods are only partially sourced overseas), does not show the full devaluation impact, also a lot of producers/sellers had hedges re prices into 2017, but as these ran out inflation has started to rise.

    Interest rates must be re a product or hedge as base rate has risen once and will likely increase again at least once or twice this year, unless HMG loosens the BofE remit re inflation and allows for stagnating growth.
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    Does brexit mean we can FINALLY rename CIF back to JIF?

    The notion of self rule is illusory in our society isnt it? Otherwise we'd be having referendums, post brexit, on loads of stuff. Like, erm, IDK, getting rid of the most undemocratic institution in our society, the unelected house of lords?

    Democracy means elected.

    Really think thats gonna happen? Nope. Yet, should that stop us from striving toward it anyway when given the choice? Nope.

    Maybe the EU was always doomed to fail because it is also so undemocratic? The idea of the EU was great indeed. The methods by which it was institutionalised and evolved are horrendous.

    Shame really....They have only got themselves to blame. Of course, the architects are never held accountable, its the lowest tiers of society who suffer.
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    I used to be pro brexit but now I'm more than a little worried with where we are heading...

    I'm your classic Surrey, private school, Tories girl...
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    Makes sense you would feel that way then. I wish I had understood myself better when younger. The kind of access to knowledge millenials have, we didnt. The internets an amazing tool. But mind you dont cut yourself. The internet is also the devils window.
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    (Original post by OldishStudent)
    Does brexit mean we can FINALLY rename CIF back to JIF?

    The notion of self rule is illusory in our society isnt it? Otherwise we'd be having referendums, post brexit, on loads of stuff. Like, erm, IDK, getting rid of the most undemocratic institution in our society, the unelected house of lords?

    Democracy means elected.

    Really think thats gonna happen? Nope. Yet, should that stop us from striving toward it anyway when given the choice? Nope.

    Maybe the EU was always doomed to fail because it is also so undemocratic? The idea of the EU was great indeed. The methods by which it was institutionalised and evolved are horrendous.

    Shame really....They have only got themselves to blame. Of course, the architects are never held accountable, its the lowest tiers of society who suffer.
    I would rather decisions about trade and economy be taken in London, than have 28 sets of politicians and political cycles. it makes for very poor and slow policy making and unaccountable power. silly arguments about naming chocolate and iphone volume, its out of control
    How am I suppose to influence a MEP from Austria ? near impossible.

    People who think the EU offers better worker protections and stuff forget the UK has a higher minimum holiday than the EU minimum and better protections in a range of areas.

    You have referendums on constitutional changes like voting system not loads of stuff.

    House of Lords fulfills the purpose it was suppose to do. Revise primary legislation by experts in industry, civil service, academia etc

    People who do not have political ambitions of their own. Its quite unique really, Lords have no direct democratic mandate so it limits their power, but at the same time they dont have to worry about reelection so dont have follow the party line or care about daily mail headlines.
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    (Original post by hannah00)
    I would rather decisions about trade and economy be taken in London, than have 28 sets of politicians and political cycles. it makes for very poor and slow policy making and unaccountable power. .
    That has to be irony? We have a negotiation running where the 27 on one side are firming their position far faster than 1 (or 2 if you include the DUP) can reach any consensus on our side.

    Still, our leader is to speak tomorrow (I believe she has her merry band meeting this a.m. to put the final details on the masterplan) ,but I, a bit like the 27, am not holding my breath that there will be any real meat on the bones re what she says but merely more platitudes, as has been said in US politics,"Where's the beef"
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    (Original post by DJKL)
    That has to be irony? We have a negotiation running where the 27 on one side are firming their position far faster than 1 (or 2 if you include the DUP) can reach any consensus on our side.

    Still, our leader is to speak tomorrow (I believe she has her merry band meeting this a.m. to put the final details on the masterplan) ,but I, a bit like the 27, am not holding my breath that there will be any real meat on the bones re what she says but merely more platitudes, as has been said in US politics,"Where's the beef"
    No irony at all, surely you can see a difference between a one off negotiation involving 27 countries, and having regular 28 party negotiations on everything from internet cookies to banking regulations.

    We havnt reached a consensus because we still weighting up what level of access to agree, which is how democracy is suppose to work.

    EU27 have easier negotiation position because brexit deal wont really affect them so they dont have as much of internal consideration, and just favouring the default
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    (Original post by hannah00)

    EU27 have easier negotiation position because brexit deal wont really affect them so they dont have as much of internal consideration, and just favouring the default
    Well if it does not really affect them what makes anyone think they have any need to agree to anything we want.

    It does affect them but individually, on a country by country basis, a border with tariffs hits us far harder than it hits them.

    Falling into WTO tariffs and no regulatory agreement re products/standards re goods will be bad, no agreement re cross border services catastrophic re our circa £59 billion a year sales of services into the EU.

    There were glimmers in May's speech re the Customs Partnership angle, recognition that no two trading blocks have ever managed a comprehensive agreement re financial services (39% of our services exported in the first 9 months of 2017 went into the EU) and an acknowledgement that further discussions would take place with the irish and EU re the border issues there, but beyond that little of substance re details, we got given what she wants but are not much nearer seeing how she proposes to get there, her speech was in some ways more trying to but the more strident pro Brexit part of her party back in the box.

    Come likely April-June , barring some certainties/agreement, the financial institutions trading into the EU from the UK have to really start implementing their plan B proposals, they will need the time to get EU regulatory approvals in place to be in a position to carry on their within EU activities after 29th March 2019.

    A limited few have done this to date, on a reduced scale, but vast numbers more will likely follow in the absence of something more positive than a mission statement re a transition deal post march 2019 which is now less than thirteen months away.

    She has no more time to remain on the fence, she needs to place before the EU concrete proposals re the "how" rather than keep bleating about what she wants, her five guiding ideals are mere fluff.
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    it's not always economics at play. The EU applies a series of tariffs on goods and raw materials. Look at some of the tariffs that the EU applies to some non-EU food imports.

    The UK will have flexibility to change these tariffs to suit the British people and not have to protect fledgling European businesses by imposing unfair tariffs on third world countries.

    The demand for high end manufacturing will rise as the emerging economies mature. Robotics, nanotech,software, medicine and engineering industries will grow to name a few.

    Inflation will go down as predicted by most economists. (not that we can trust them). Inflation goes up interest rates go up. Inflation goes down interest rates go down. Same cycle as always, repeated over many decades. let's also not forget that we are all at the mercy of poor banking decisions and stock market crashes. We can not act like if we play by a set of rules and stay in the EU that we will be protected from economic boom and bust. The monetary policy practiced by Britain, America and the EU is bordering insane and is nothing more than a pyrimid scheme.

    I completely accept your last point I can not see us hitting the ground running. More because nobody planned for a Brexit vote. David Cameron in his arrogance has screwed us all.

    I did vote Brexit reluctantly. I could never see the EU changing and deeper integration of policy and economies will not work. if it was kept to northern Europe I would be all for it but the inclusion of Romania and similar countries is just not good for us on so many levels. The European project should have just concentrated on trade and it would have been great for all involved.



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