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    Hi can someone cleverer than me assits with an implied probability query?

    If the implied probability if an even lets call it A is 7-1 or14% (1.16 decimal)

    I want to work out the implied probablity of this combined sequence

    A, NOT A, A, NOT A

    Therfore the % prob of A is 14% (100/7)
    Therefore the % prob of NOT at is 100 - (100/7) = 86

    Therefore the implied prob of " NOT A" as a decimal is = 100/86 = 1.16

    is its 7 *.86 * 7 *.86 = 36 -1 ???? Is this right

    Thanks everyone
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    (Original post by neilhardy)
    Hi can someone cleverer than me assits with an implied probability query?

    If the implied probability if an even lets call it A is 7-1 or14% (1.16 decimal)

    I want to work out the implied probablity of this combined sequence

    A, NOT A, A, NOT A

    Therfore the % prob of A is 14% (100/7)
    Therefore the % prob of NOT at is 100 - (100/7) = 86

    Therefore the implied prob of " NOT A" as a decimal is = 100/86 = 1.16

    is its 7 *.86 * 7 *.86 = 36 -1 ???? Is this right

    Thanks everyone
    Not familiar with the term "implied probability", but from a Google, I would think it would be 1/(1+7) = 0.125 in this case.

    Assuming that's the probability of event A happening, then probabilty of not A = 1-0.125 = 0.875.

    Then assuming the terms in the sequence are independent, the probability of the sequence is 0.125 x 0.875 x 0.125 x 0.875 = 0.011963 (5 sig fig.) or roughly 83-1.

    I could be totally wrong, but that's my best guess.
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    (Original post by ghostwalker)
    Not familiar with the term "implied probability", but from a Google, I would think it would be 1/(1+7) = 0.125 in this case.

    Assuming that's the probability of event A happening, then probabilty of not A = 1-0.125 = 0.875.

    Then assuming the terms in the sequence are independent, the probability of the sequence is 0.125 x 0.875 x 0.125 x 0.875 = 0.011963 (5 sig fig.) or roughly 83-1.

    I could be totally wrong, but that's my best guess.
    Thanks!!! - !!
 
 
 

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