You are Here: Home >< Maths

# Implied probabulity watch

1. Hi can someone cleverer than me assits with an implied probability query?

If the implied probability if an even lets call it A is 7-1 or14% (1.16 decimal)

I want to work out the implied probablity of this combined sequence

A, NOT A, A, NOT A

Therfore the % prob of A is 14% (100/7)
Therefore the % prob of NOT at is 100 - (100/7) = 86

Therefore the implied prob of " NOT A" as a decimal is = 100/86 = 1.16

is its 7 *.86 * 7 *.86 = 36 -1 ???? Is this right

Thanks everyone
2. (Original post by neilhardy)
Hi can someone cleverer than me assits with an implied probability query?

If the implied probability if an even lets call it A is 7-1 or14% (1.16 decimal)

I want to work out the implied probablity of this combined sequence

A, NOT A, A, NOT A

Therfore the % prob of A is 14% (100/7)
Therefore the % prob of NOT at is 100 - (100/7) = 86

Therefore the implied prob of " NOT A" as a decimal is = 100/86 = 1.16

is its 7 *.86 * 7 *.86 = 36 -1 ???? Is this right

Thanks everyone
Not familiar with the term "implied probability", but from a Google, I would think it would be 1/(1+7) = 0.125 in this case.

Assuming that's the probability of event A happening, then probabilty of not A = 1-0.125 = 0.875.

Then assuming the terms in the sequence are independent, the probability of the sequence is 0.125 x 0.875 x 0.125 x 0.875 = 0.011963 (5 sig fig.) or roughly 83-1.

I could be totally wrong, but that's my best guess.
3. (Original post by ghostwalker)
Not familiar with the term "implied probability", but from a Google, I would think it would be 1/(1+7) = 0.125 in this case.

Assuming that's the probability of event A happening, then probabilty of not A = 1-0.125 = 0.875.

Then assuming the terms in the sequence are independent, the probability of the sequence is 0.125 x 0.875 x 0.125 x 0.875 = 0.011963 (5 sig fig.) or roughly 83-1.

I could be totally wrong, but that's my best guess.
Thanks!!! - !!

TSR Support Team

We have a brilliant team of more than 60 Support Team members looking after discussions on The Student Room, helping to make it a fun, safe and useful place to hang out.

This forum is supported by:
Updated: February 27, 2018
Today on TSR

### Uni league tables

Do they actually matter?

### University open days

• Staffordshire University
Everything except: Midwifery, Operating Department Practice, Paramedic Undergraduate
Sun, 21 Oct '18
• University of Exeter
Wed, 24 Oct '18
Wed, 24 Oct '18
Poll
Useful resources

### Maths Forum posting guidelines

Not sure where to post? Read the updated guidelines here

### How to use LaTex

Writing equations the easy way

### Study habits of A* students

Top tips from students who have already aced their exams