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Should the Labour Party be optimistic after the 2017 general election? watch

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    Interested to poll opinion on this, it may well also form part of my EPQ's research so responses would be awesome. Its only two questions, so will probably take about a minute. What do you think?



    https://www.surveymonkey.co.uk/r/6TGSTNT
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    Nope. there are two reasons labour did well. Many from our generation haven't bothered to look back to see what previous labour governments have done, and the gullible in society who believe Corbyn can deliver what he promises. Of course, Labour will always get votes, especially from all those immigrants who want their relatives to come over here and claim their benefits. There also those extreme right wingers who vote Labour because they think they represent the working class. That's a strange combination, but there are thousands of them. Oh, and finally, the people who vote based on a leaders personality, rather than their politics. Hard to believe, but Tony Blair got away with for years.
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    (Original post by SpursMan)
    Nope. there are two reasons labour did well. Many from our generation haven't bothered to look back to see what previous labour governments have done, and the gullible in society who believe Corbyn can deliver what he promises. Of course, Labour will always get votes, especially from all those immigrants who want their relatives to come over here and claim their benefits. There also those extreme right wingers who vote Labour because they think they represent the working class. That's a strange combination, but there are thousands of them. Oh, and finally, the people who vote based on a leaders personality, rather than their politics. Hard to believe, but Tony Blair got away with for years.
    But are those reasons for Labour to not be optimistic? Given that they got those votes anyway, why shouldn't they be optimistic in the future?
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    Labour can only be optimistic if Brexit goes wrong or if the Conservative continue to fail to do anything about tuition fees or the housing system.

    Left-wing parties have been falling like dominoes across the Western world and the only anomalies continue to be Democrats and Labour because they have an advantage of a two-party political system which stops centrist challengers and a broken system for the youth.

    One only needs to look at the SDP of Germany, which is so right-wing it's not even Blairite, yet it keeps falling. The Socialist Party of France is basically dead, the Labour Party in the Netherlands appears to have disappeared in the mist as it failed to come in the top 5, while the Democratic Party in Italy just can't find a new low plateau and each new month since Spring 2014 is a month they're worse off.

    The future does not lie with parties of a left-wing persuasion (of our modern understanding of the term.)

    In Germany for the first time ever, AfD has taken on the role as the opposition. This not only comes as the expected opposition in the Bundestag, but now also unexpectedly in the polls, as SPD has fallen to its lowest ever vote share since they were founded in 1948.

    It appears the new political centre is precisely where parties like the Conservatives, Christian-Democratic Union and Les Republicains are, while the new centre-right/right is AfD, UKIP and National Front, and the new left will be parties like the Liberal Democrats, Freie Democraten and En Marche.

    We are yet to see whether this is a permanent trend or a temporary blip. But we'll need a good 10-15 years to make a definite statement, but for now this is a good hypothesis.

    Case of SPD...
    More worrying for the SPD is the fact that AfD came 2nd in the vast majority of German constituency-list votes. Not SPD.
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    What does the previous Labour government have to do with it?, Corbyn has gone for a totally different policy agenda, that's what the monumental scrap in the Labour party is about.

    And if you go further back, we can list improved social mobility, workers rights, women's rights, anti-racism and the creation of the NHS in Labour's legacy.

    Oh, and I think you copied my username.
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    (Original post by SpursMan)
    Many from our generation haven't bothered to look back to see what previous labour governments have done
    They gave us the NHS, all sorts of workers rights (which the Conservatives constantly try to weaken), minimum wage, and made things much better for LGBT people (scrapping section 28, introducing civil partnerships, etc).

    Can we please stop with this nonsense about how young people who support Labour are all gullible idiots who haven't taken their decision seriously. I and many others hate the conservatives for their awful environmental record, their treatment of poor and disabled people, their mismanagement of the NHS and their attempts to weaken the rights of workers.

    You do not have to be a naive gullible idealistic idiot to think that governments shouldn't abuse disabled people, shouldn't strip welfare payments off people unfairly and leave them penniless, shouldn't trash our natural environment, shouldn't weaken the ability of workers to bring employers to justice, and shouldn't use Brexit as an excuse for an authoritarian power grab that gives government the power to completely bypass parliament whenever it wants.
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    Hmm the truly incompetent leader should feel confident? They will lose seats if the Conservatives find a competent leader by next election. Let’s be honest, May had an easy job against Corbyn and she managed to mess that up
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    It depends on when the election takes place canterbury became labour despite being a historically tory place due to the high number of students voting there because the election took place before their exams

    Recent elections results don't really matter imo
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    (Original post by Sensual Bacon)
    Interested to poll opinion on this, it may well also form part of my EPQ's research so responses would be awesome. Its only two questions, so will probably take about a minute. What do you think?



    https://www.surveymonkey.co.uk/r/6TGSTNT
    Short answer, yes.
    The election was called because it looked like the tories were going to get a 1997 type majority.
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    Labour won on the backside of an awful campaign by the conservatives. The question becomes how can labour improve from 2017? It’s maximised all its resources and appeal which was mainly the young people and that still wasn’t enough. The fact is the key to government is the middle class.

    In the event labour did win an election, I’d be worried for their future. The policies on business and banking are disastrous, desirable in theory but the effects are horrifically worrying in reality.

    Tuition fees is the dumbest debate of the decade, it’s not even a debate - it’s fair, it’s never going to be a burden, it’s progressive and most importantly it enables access to higher education for EVERYONE. in fact the only people who have a strong argument against the system is the lower middle class since their parental income says they earn a decent amount reducing their maintence loan yet it’s a huge stretch for parents to top up the extra those on lower income get higher loans + a uni bursary, those on higher income get the money from their parents but there’s a gap in the middle.

    Labour is so foolish for letting the Conservatives wreck their reputation in government, giving Tony Blair and Gordon Brown a bad name helps no one but the Conservatives and the left of labour are dumb enough to play along and not defend it. The Iraq war was not the ideology of the party at the time, labour should’ve campaigned to build on top of New Labour, it was flawed in many areas but it kept labour in government and proved great for the economy, moving away from it rather building on it was the start of labours choas.
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    They should be optimistic. People are more stupid now than at any time in generations. They can't see what a complete and utter piece of dog turd Corbyn and his team are. Never mind Theresa May - Corbyn is by far and away the worst politician for years and the whole Momentum project is a moral black hole. Yet - they seem to be doing ok.

    So yes - on the levels of horrendousness that they're operating on, they seem to have tapped into a sense of blindness and hundreds of thousands of people who have convinced themselves that they can have everything they want for free without consequence and that someone else will always pay for them. Maybe it's "the rich". Maybe it's China (meaning someone else will pay the debts in years to come) - but all that matters is there are always excuses for their Marxism.

    Given that they're not utterly destroyed as a party - there's no reason why they shouldn't be optimistic. Wouldn't you be?
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    (Original post by LostAccount)
    Labour can only be optimistic if Brexit goes wrong or if the Conservative continue to fail to do anything about tuition fees or the housing system.

    Left-wing parties have been falling like dominoes across the Western world and the only anomalies continue to be Democrats and Labour because they have an advantage of a two-party political system which stops centrist challengers and a broken system for the youth.

    One only needs to look at the SDP of Germany, which is so right-wing it's not even Blairite, yet it keeps falling. The Socialist Party of France is basically dead, the Labour Party in the Netherlands appears to have disappeared in the mist as it failed to come in the top 5, while the Democratic Party in Italy just can't find a new low plateau and each new month since Spring 2014 is a month they're worse off.

    The future does not lie with parties of a left-wing persuasion (of our modern understanding of the term.)

    In Germany for the first time ever, AfD has taken on the role as the opposition. This not only comes as the expected opposition in the Bundestag, but now also unexpectedly in the polls, as SPD has fallen to its lowest ever vote share since they were founded in 1948.

    It appears the new political centre is precisely where parties like the Conservatives, Christian-Democratic Union and Les Republicains are, while the new centre-right/right is AfD, UKIP and National Front, and the new left will be parties like the Liberal Democrats, Freie Democraten and En Marche.

    We are yet to see whether this is a permanent trend or a temporary blip. But we'll need a good 10-15 years to make a definite statement, but for now this is a good hypothesis.

    Case of SPD...
    More worrying for the SPD is the fact that AfD came 2nd in the vast majority of German constituency-list votes. Not SPD.
    The centre-left is collapsing. The left in a number of places is actually on the rise, albeit from a low base.

    For example, you mention the (centre-left) Socialist party in France is dead, yet the more left wing Melenchon very nearly made it in to the runoff.

    Likewise, the Labour party in Holland has collapsed, but the Greens are on the rise.
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    (Original post by DeBruyne18)
    The centre-left is collapsing. The left in a number of places is actually on the rise, albeit from a low base.

    For example, you mention the (centre-left) Socialist party in France is dead, yet the more left wing Melenchon very nearly made it in to the runoff.

    Likewise, the Labour party in Holland has collapsed, but the Greens are on the rise.
    Melenchon needs to be viewed in a French context. He's not that left-wing in how we understand the left. He's certainly no Corbyn.

    Both Melenchon's movement and the Five Star Movement in Italy are left-wing in their respective contexts but not actually left-wing in our society in any way.

    For example, the M5S is anti-immigration and in favour of lower taxes for the middle class, and in favour of higher tariffs and against minimum wages, but pro-unions.

    Melenchon is just a "left Gaullist" - i.e. the economic policies of de Gaulle mixed with more liberal social views and environmentalism. Everyone from the Communist Party through to the "Socialist" Blairite party has condemned him for being too right-wing. He's also of course anti-EU, and his only discernible difference from Marine Le Pen is Islam, with Melenchon being ambivalent (welcoming to people, unwelcoming to the religion) and Le Pen being rabidly anti-Muslim.

    Take away Le Pen's and Melenchon's mutual hatred for each other and there honestly are no policy differences beyond 'welcoming level' of Islam, other than Melenchon supporting renewables and Le Pen supporting nuclear.
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    People may disagree but I think the reason they did so well is many assumed Theresa would win a landslide and did not bother to vote / Corbyn got a lot of protest votes / socialists for the first time had a party to vote for / obviously young people.

    That said I still think Theresa will win in 2022. I think she will stay on dependent on how the Brexit event goes.
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    Possibly. They lost by much less than everyone thought. But it is widely accepted that the Conservative campaign was a rolling disaster.
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    Labour need two things to win the next general election:

    1. A new leader and rein in some of the more socialist rhetoric which will spook a large chunk of the electorate, the secret is to keep the radical/ youth vote onboard whilst making electoral progress into New Labour territory, difficult under Corbyn but possible if, for the good of the party, he steps aside along with John McDonnell.

    2. The Government continuing to make a complete mess of Brexit.

    I am not sure 1 will happen but 2 is looking more and more likely.

    And of course if Brexit does start looking to be certain to be a total disaster, rather than merely possibly a total disaster, if say we get a steady flow of announcements re financial services migrating into Europe in the latter part of this year, as the banks etc are forced to migrate due to continuing uncertainty, and if NI border issue/customs union fudge cannot be worked out, then whether a Conservative party survives in any meaningful way ,in say five years time, is also open to question.

    The vote leave element of their support will, if Brexit does result in heavy job losses, feel very betrayed and will turn on them for a generation, not sure, given the infighting that would then erupt within the party ,if what we currently know as the Conservative Party could actually survive.

    They have basically in poker terms gone all in on Brexit, John Major's speech urging a free vote in the H of Ps re final terms was partly to head of the worst excesses being pursued but also as a political move to if need be spread the blame if it all turns very sour ,so the Conservatives, politically, would not shoulder all the blame- his speech is worth listening to for the very brief understated warning to his own party which they really ought to heed.

    Of course the more it looks like they will not heed the warnings the more likely it is JC will hang around, if 2018 is as bad as 2017 was re negotiations, if no transition has been agreed, if NI is still up in the air, JC must fancy that even he might beat the Conservatives; 2018 is make or break year.
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    The simple answer to the thread is Yes. They have ultimately achieved an election winning percentage of the vote already and therefore have the luxury of a head start. Only a few percent swap in votes between Tories and Labour put them in power.

    With all that being said i suspect that many people underestimate the Tories. They did ultimately win and they are ultimately averaging more than 40% in the polls despite the first phase of negotiations and the negative media impression and perhaps more importantly the movement to Corbyn on best PM and the economy did stop. Although it will be difficult to build vote share from a 34 year high it is still entirely probable that with an even average campaign we can increase the margin a little and perhaps retake the majority.

    In essence they should be optimistic but not arrogant.
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    (Original post by Mr XcX)
    People may disagree but I think the reason they did so well is many assumed Theresa would win a landslide and did not bother to vote / Corbyn got a lot of protest votes / socialists for the first time had a party to vote for / obviously young people.

    That said I still think Theresa will win in 2022. I think she will stay on dependent on how the Brexit event goes.
    I'd be VERY VERY VERY surprised if May is still there by then. Hopefully, the Tories get a more competent leader.
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    No.

    This current government is utterly useless, out of touch and many other things besides. And labour were glad to come second to it,
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    (Original post by Davij038)
    No.

    This current government is utterly useless, out of touch and many other things besides. And labour were glad to come second to it,
    Bit silly. They were 20 to 25 points behind a year ago. Now they are ahead in the pills despite every expert and commentator out there having told us that Labour were heading for electoral oblivion under Corbyn.
 
 
 
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