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Tony Blair's own poll shows 66% want to leave the EU 'at whatever cost' watch

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    (Original post by Davij038)
    Agreed again.

    That said, I think both of their supporters may (rightly) also be more concerned with blairite sabatouers from within. Hopefully they’ll. e forced out and have to try and a Macron.
    I wonder if Labour had a more centrist leader like Umunna, whether we'd see a lot more tory rebels on Brexit. A lot of remainer tories are more worried about Corbyn than they are Brexit but if they had the choice of Umunna and soft Brexit, rather than May and hard Brexit I reckon a few would change tune.
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    (Original post by DeBruyne18)
    I wonder if Labour had a more centrist leader like Umunna, whether we'd see a lot more tory rebels on Brexit. A lot of remainer tories are more worried about Corbyn than they are Brexit but if they had the choice of Umunna and soft Brexit, rather than May and hard Brexit I reckon a few would change tune.
    Almost certainly.

    I think we desperately need such a ‘centrist’ party as that’s where most MPs would really belong.
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    (Original post by Davij038)
    Almost certainly.

    I think we desperately need such a ‘centrist’ party as that’s where most MPs would really belong.
    It's hard to think how you can get a viable centrist party that could challenge for power in our current electoral system though. The two main parties have too big a strangle hold in a fptp constituency based system.

    But I'm not sure the alternative is necessarily better, just look at Germany where they can't even form a government. If people thought the tory lib Dem horsetrading was bad, just wait until you have 4-5 parties in negotiations to form a government. Although in economically left wing I'm becoming more small c conservative on issues like that. I quite like the House of Lords too.
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    (Original post by bob072)
    However the idea the pound has crashed (not nessecarily good or bad) is a myth, it only went so low because the BoE halved rates. It goes up and down, currently against the US dollar, it's 1.38, just a week before the referendum it was 1.41 (then rose when a remain victory was predicted).
    It does seem to have climbed back up against the US Dollar, but against the Euro it has steadily declined for the past two years. I believe it is only worth the same now as it was back then because of the slow loss in faith of the US Dollar that investors seem to be having.
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    (Original post by bob072)
    I have to admit laughing at his failure to stitch up this poll.

    Attachment 728726

    They then claimed it was hijacked, just like Blair thinks people didn't really want to leave in the referendum and people didn't really want us to not illegally invade Iraq with mass protests in London.
    People like Alastair Campbell and Tony Blair should retire from Politics. Im sure the economy will drop so much and create so much debt just like the Iraq did.
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    (Original post by DeBruyne18)
    It's hard to think how you can get a viable centrist party that could challenge for power in our current electoral system though. The two main parties have too big a strangle hold in a fptp constituency based system.
    Either the likes of Umunna and Soubry vote as a block until the general election and then defect to a new party or defect en masses and trigger a new one.


    But I'm not sure the alternative is necessarily better, just look at Germany where they can't even form a government. If people thought the tory lib Dem horsetrading was bad, just wait until you have 4-5 parties in negotiations to form a government. Although in economically left wing I'm becoming more small c conservative on issues like that. I quite like the House of Lords too.
    Hmm. I still can’t make my mind up on tvOS issue. I like FPTP In principle but I also like having a real choice of parties. People who argue against coalitions forget that both main parties are in effect coalitions- when you have choice you can at least have some say as to the shape of the coalition than just voting for one candidate.
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    This is a ****ing Facebook poll.
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    (Original post by Captain Haddock)
    This is a ****ing Facebook poll.

    Yes, on a eurofanatic page and with 175,000 votes. No one's saying it's perfectly scientific.
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    (Original post by munchm_)
    It does seem to have climbed back up against the US Dollar, but against the Euro it has steadily declined for the past two years. I believe it is only worth the same now as it was back then because of the slow loss in faith of the US Dollar that investors seem to be having.

    I'm no economist, maybe you know more than me, but the strength of a currency depends on assessment of the present and future state of the economy. The Euro has been strong recently because it's growth has started picking up after years of poor growth and recession.


    The USA also has good growth and record DOW J recently, the dollar may have fallen against other currencies, but certainly the pound hasn't crashed, there's some uncertainty but also record investment.
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    (Original post by bob072)
    I'm no economist, maybe you know more than me, but the strength of a currency depends on assessment of the present and future state of the economy. The Euro has been strong recently because it's growth has started picking up after years of poor growth and recession.


    The USA also has good growth and record DOW J recently, the dollar may have fallen against other currencies, but certainly the pound hasn't crashed, there's some uncertainty but also record investment.
    I'm no economist either, don't worry, I'm just politically active. However, I think the issue is that you've misinterpreted me a little.

    I never said the pound had crashed (it did for a moment after the vote but quickly recovered), just that the value of the currency is lower now that it was before. The Euro has been getting stronger recently, and in turn, the value of the pound is slowly becoming lower in comparison. It's not a rapid change, but it is certainly noteworthy when it comes to trade with Europe.
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    (Original post by munchm_)
    I dislike the way we treat the elderly in politics. When it comes to the NHS, they're put at the forefront of an emotional appeal to increase rather than revise spending, but when it comes to the ballot, they are discredited and shunned, regardless of their years of experience under the UK government. These people did not just get retirements and property out of nowhere - many of them worked hard for it.

    When we leave the EU, we will hopefully remove all of the regulatory burdens that came with membership. New competitors will be able to rise up in the market because of this. Current companies are unlikely to up and leave - most major European leaders are open to trade with Britain post-Brexit - but even if they do, there will be plenty of entrepreneurs to replace them.

    This could actually turn out to be very good for the younger generations. Many of them do not possess large amounts of capital currently, and therefore are not as affected by the drop in the value of the pound, unlike those who have saved (and, as you have already said, those who have retired) their money already. New business ventures will be open to them, and it will be much easier for them to export their goods as the pound is worth less currently.

    Domestic trade is also likely to increase as it becomes more difficult to import goods from other countries. Businesses will have more of an incentive to buy their raw materials from home rather than from abroad, which would keep money circulating in the economy, rather than it leaving the country.
    Both old and young will be affected if the pounds goes down because inflation will increase and erode savings and wages.

    It won't be more difficult to import goods, its will be more expensive due to depreciation of sterling and tariffs. Britain does not have a lot of raw materials and processing materials like steel needs vast investment and large scale to make it economical. Britain don't have that scale to make it worthwhile.

    The most likely scenario is Britain gets poorer, the sort of goods most people can afford will be the cheap stuff made in sweat shops overseas, although if wages fall enough, some manufacturing will return but the EU and some other countries will put barriers to prevent Britain deliberately lowering labour standards to export cheap goods that undercut their own domestic manufacturers.

    People will eat cheap, low grade food from the US, big manufacturers will move most of their export operations abroad and import stuff into Britain.
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    (Original post by Maker)
    Both old and young will be affected if the pounds goes down because inflation will increase and erode savings and wages.

    It won't be more difficult to import goods, its will be more expensive due to depreciation of sterling and tariffs. Britain does not have a lot of raw materials and processing materials like steel needs vast investment and large scale to make it economical. Britain don't have that scale to make it worthwhile.

    The most likely scenario is Britain gets poorer, the sort of goods most people can afford will be the cheap stuff made in sweat shops overseas, although if wages fall enough, some manufacturing will return but the EU and some other countries will put barriers to prevent Britain deliberately lowering labour standards to export cheap goods that undercut their own domestic manufacturers.

    People will eat cheap, low grade food from the US, big manufacturers will move most of their export operations abroad and import stuff into Britain.
    As me and Bob have already discussed, savings are going to depreciate, not erode, and as I've already said, the younger population does not have as much saved capital as the older generations do. Inflation is slowly going back down again and we've seen much higher than this before.

    It will be more difficult to import goods because it is more expensive to do so. The vast investment necessary that you discuss has actually shot up in the past 2 years as well. The country has plenty of materials up in Scotland, and granted, we will still have to import some materials, but the incentive to import anything that isn't a necessity is now lower and is less likely to happen.

    What you then describe seems to be completely impossible - not everything in this paragraph can be true at once. Britain would not be poorer if it undercut all of it's overseas competitors - loads of people would buy from Britain instead, and that would bring money into the economy, surely?

    Also, I doubt there will be much of a change in the amount of cheap sweatshop products we buy whether we leave or stay. That is a sad but true reality.

    Most of the food we import comes from Europe and South America, not the US. And that last point makes no economic sense - if it is currently cheaper to export your goods into the EU here, why move out of the EU and import into the UK which costs even more? Also, the values of currencies quickly change - companies will not be so quick to hop around countries if they wish to survive.
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    (Original post by Maker)
    Both old and young will be affected if the pounds goes down because inflation will increase and erode savings and wages.

    It won't be more difficult to import goods, its will be more expensive due to depreciation of sterling and tariffs. Britain does not have a lot of raw materials and processing materials like steel needs vast investment and large scale to make it economical. Britain don't have that scale to make it worthwhile.

    The most likely scenario is Britain gets poorer, the sort of goods most people can afford will be the cheap stuff made in sweat shops overseas, although if wages fall enough, some manufacturing will return but the EU and some other countries will put barriers to prevent Britain deliberately lowering labour standards to export cheap goods that undercut their own domestic manufacturers.

    People will eat cheap, low grade food from the US, big manufacturers will move most of their export operations abroad and import stuff into Britain.

    The EU is a protectionist club which through it's customs union imposes high tariffs on the rest of the world (things like food, clothing are often 10-20% (far higher than likely currency devaluations)). It does so to please big business, which therefore doesn't have to be competitive and can lobby for regulations to strangle small business, so the EU gives big corporates a monopoly.


    Once we've left, we can instantly reduce these tariffs to zero and save households a large proportion of spending. In addition we will be able to deregulate and have competition driving down prices.


    On top of that, the EU makes us set VAT at a minimum of 20%, so we could abolish or vastly reduce. When people have more disposable income they will help grow the economy in other areas.


    Whether the current government will do all this is another question, but it offers an exciting prospect.
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    (Original post by bob072)
    The EU is a protectionist club which through it's customs union imposes high tariffs on the rest of the world (things like food, clothing are often 10-20% (far higher than likely currency devaluations)). It does so to please big business, which therefore doesn't have to be competitive and can lobby for regulations to strangle small business, so the EU gives big corporates a monopoly.


    Once we've left, we can instantly reduce these tariffs to zero and save households a large proportion of spending. In addition we will be able to deregulate and have competition driving down prices.


    On top of that, the EU makes us set VAT at a minimum of 20%, so we could abolish or vastly reduce. When people have more disposable income they will help grow the economy in other areas.


    Whether the current government will do all this is another question, but it offers an exciting prospect.

    Arghh both sides of this debate are so annoying.

    We seem to have people either saying leaving the EU will lead to disaster or leaving the EU will mean sunshine and rainbows forever. There seems to be next to no balance on any side.

    VAT is one of our highest generators of revenue. If we cut that what are you going to raise to make up the shortfall, especially if you plan on running a surplus or paying off our debt? Do you think VAT should be cut and income taxes raised on higher earners?

    Not to mention that the Conservative party love to raise VAT. The idea that the only reason VAT is high is because of the EU, is laughable.
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    (Original post by DeBruyne18)
    Arghh both sides of this debate are so annoying.

    We seem to have people either saying leaving the EU will lead to disaster or leaving the EU will mean sunshine and rainbows forever. There seems to be next to no balance on any side.

    VAT is one of our highest generators of revenue. If we cut that what are you going to raise to make up the shortfall, especially if you plan on running a surplus or paying off our debt? Do you think VAT should be cut and income taxes raised on higher earners?

    Not to mention that the Conservative party love to raise VAT. The idea that the only reason VAT is high is because of the EU, is laughable.

    I'm in favour of brexit, I was responding to the argument costs of living would increase by explaining what we could do to reduce them. If you think I'm incorrect, please tell me.


    If VAT was lowered, yes there would be a fall in revenues however cash-in-hand to avoid it is common and more people would be more honest if more affordable. If everyday costs were reduced we could reduce welfare spending for a start.


    Really VAT is a separate question, the point is we will control it.
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    (Original post by bob072)
    The EU is a protectionist club which through it's customs union imposes high tariffs on the rest of the world (things like food, clothing are often 10-20% (far higher than likely currency devaluations)). It does so to please big business, which therefore doesn't have to be competitive and can lobby for regulations to strangle small business, so the EU gives big corporates a monopoly.


    Once we've left, we can instantly reduce these tariffs to zero and save households a large proportion of spending. In addition we will be able to deregulate and have competition driving down prices.


    On top of that, the EU makes us set VAT at a minimum of 20%, so we could abolish or vastly reduce. When people have more disposable income they will help grow the economy in other areas.


    Whether the current government will do all this is another question, but it offers an exciting prospect.
    Lowering tariffs on food will hit UK farmers hard and drive some out of business, the Tory govt will never do that because they get a lot of support from farmers. If they lower tariffs, they will have to increase support for farmers which means more taxation or borrowing.

    The EU sets the minimum rate of VAT at 15%, its the UK govt's choice to increase or decrease it, make sure you know what you are talking about first before you attempt to debate it.

    Lowering VAT means more taxes elsewhere, where do you think should those taxes come from?
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    (Original post by bob072)
    I have to admit laughing at his failure to stitch up this poll.

    Attachment 728726

    They then claimed it was hijacked, just like Blair thinks people didn't really want to leave in the referendum and people didn't really want us to not illegally invade Iraq with mass protests in London.
    Why do you care so much about a poll created by the organisation of a person who inadvertently helped create ISIS?

    NB - I usually vote for the uncommon answer in these facebook posts, I'm not sure how many of these votes are serious. It's strange, given that most Labour supporters I've seen are pro-EU
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    (Original post by munchm_)
    As me and Bob have already discussed, savings are going to depreciate, not erode, and as I've already said, the younger population does not have as much saved capital as the older generations do. Inflation is slowly going back down again and we've seen much higher than this before.

    It will be more difficult to import goods because it is more expensive to do so. The vast investment necessary that you discuss has actually shot up in the past 2 years as well. The country has plenty of materials up in Scotland, and granted, we will still have to import some materials, but the incentive to import anything that isn't a necessity is now lower and is less likely to happen.

    What you then describe seems to be completely impossible - not everything in this paragraph can be true at once. Britain would not be poorer if it undercut all of it's overseas competitors - loads of people would buy from Britain instead, and that would bring money into the economy, surely?

    Also, I doubt there will be much of a change in the amount of cheap sweatshop products we buy whether we leave or stay. That is a sad but true reality.

    Most of the food we import comes from Europe and South America, not the US. And that last point makes no economic sense - if it is currently cheaper to export your goods into the EU here, why move out of the EU and import into the UK which costs even more? Also, the values of currencies quickly change - companies will not be so quick to hop around countries if they wish to survive.
    A prolonged devaluation of sterling and higher inflation will erode everyone's money as it has already

    What resources do they have in Scotland? If it get more expense to import raw materials, then manufacturers will relocate to somewhere where its cheaper to do so.

    A low wage Britain will make everyone poorer and the better educated will migrate to countries where they can get more money, Vietnam makes lots of cheap things for export, its not a rich country.

    The govt is keen to do trade deals with the US and the US will no doubt demand and get better access to the UK for their food exports, they have lower food standards and will undercut UK producers.
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    (Original post by Maker)
    A prolonged devaluation of sterling and higher inflation will erode everyone's money as it has already

    What resources do they have in Scotland? If it get more expense to import raw materials, then manufacturers will relocate to somewhere where its cheaper to do so.

    A low wage Britain will make everyone poorer and the better educated will migrate to countries where they can get more money, Vietnam makes lots of cheap things for export, its not a rich country.

    The govt is keen to do trade deals with the US and the US will no doubt demand and get better access to the UK for their food exports, they have lower food standards and will undercut UK producers.
    If you're so certain sterling will go down, why don't you invest in it.
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    And he instead to post his "more accurate, not hijacked" Twitter poll that had literally only around 1% of the people who voted on Facebook, and that wasn't even 100%, despite it being on his Twitter page, with extremely loaded options.
 
 
 
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