Should I message my ex happy birthday?

We broke up about two months ago. It’s his birthday in a few weeks.

I’m not over the relationship - I’ve been crying a lot about missing the way things were (regular affection and just having someone I could tell anything to). I recognise that we didn’t work as a couple, but I would love to be friends.

He said that he wants to be friends too, but says that it’s too early at the moment.

Also some really embarrassing **** happened recently and long story short, he blocked me on messenger. I know him fairly well - in my mind that’s his way of saying he doesn’t want to talk at the moment, not just to me but to other people, and I don’t think he’s completely over the relationship either as he’s not blocked me on anything else and still has pictures of us on his Facebook profile.

So, should I say happy birthday? Ngl, I’m worried about not getting a reply and just getting upset. Also I don’t want to bug him if he doesn’t want any contact from me.