Napp
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With friends like Trumps america, who needs friends?

US President Donald Trump has retracted his endorsement of the joint communique issued at the end of the G7 summit, accusing Canada of "dishonesty".
He said that other countries were imposing "massive tariffs" on the US.
The joint communique, advocating a "rules-based trading system", was reached despite tension over US tariffs on steel and aluminium imports.
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau vowed afterwards to press ahead with retaliatory tariffs on 1 July.
Speaking at a news conference, he described as "insulting" Mr Trump's decision to invoke national security concerns to justify steel and aluminium tariffs.
"It would be with regret but it would be with absolute clarity and firmness that we move forward with retaliatory measures on 1 July," Mr Trudeau said. "Canadians are polite and reasonable but we will also not be pushed around."
Tweeting en route to his next summit in Singapore, Mr Trump said he had instructed US officials "not to endorse the communique as we look at tariffs on automobiles".
He said the move was based on Mr Trudeau's "false statements at his news conference, and the fact that Canada is charging massive tariffs to our US farmers, workers and companies".
He suggested Mr Trudeau was "very dishonest and weak".
Mr Trump had earlier signed the joint statement agreed by all the G7 nations despite the trade row.
He also tweeted defiantly about not allowing "other countries to impose massive tariffs and trade barriers on its farmers, workers and companies".

ImageImage copyrightJESCO DENZEWhat is in the joint communique?

The G7 summit, held in La Malbaie, Quebec province, also covered such issues as relations with Russia.
In the communique, the group of major industrial nations - Canada, the US, the UK, France, Italy, Japan and Germany - agreed on the need for "free, fair, and mutually beneficial trade" and the importance of fighting protectionism.
"We strive to reduce tariff barriers, non-tariff barriers and subsidies," they said.
Other agreements reached include:
  • Russia: A joint demand that Moscow "cease with its destabilising behaviour". The leaders called on the Kremlin to stop with its attempts to "undermine democracy" and to withdraw its support for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad
  • Iran: A pledge to "permanently" ensure Tehran's nuclear programme remains peaceful. The group said they were committed to ensuring Iran would "never seek, develop or acquire a nuclear weapon"
  • Climate: An agreement to disagree. The US refused to sign a pledge to implement the Paris climate change accord after Mr Trump announced he was pulling out of the agreement last June in the hope of a new "fair" deal






What else did Trump have to say?

President Trump earlier told reporters he had proposed the idea of a tariff-free G7 to other leaders and described his talks with them as "extremely productive".
"The United States has been taken advantage of for decades and decades," he continued, describing America as a "piggy bank that everyone keeps robbing".

President Trump said retaliation tariffs from his allies were a "mistake" and warned that if it got as far as a trade war, then the US would "win that war a thousand times out of a thousand".
ImageImage copyrightGETTY IMAGESImage caption(from left) German Chancellor Angela Merkel, IMF chief Christine Lagarde and US President Donald Trump
He left the summit early to travel to Singapore for a landmark meeting with the North Korean leader Kim Jong-un to try to persuade him to give up the country's nuclear weapons.





What are the tariffs?

On 1 June, the US imposed a 25% tariff for steel and 10% for aluminium on imports from the EU, Canada, and Mexico. Mr Trump said the move would protect domestic producers that were vital to US security.
The EU then announced tariffs on US goods ranging from Harley-Davidson motorcycles to bourbon. Canada and Mexico are also taking action in retaliation.
ImageMedia captionDairy wars: Why is Trump threatening Canada over milk?Image





Trump's price

Jessica Murphy, BBC News, Quebec
The US president has made it clear he believes the removal of tariffs against his G7 allies should come at a price - and he doesn't expect the US to pick up the tab.
His statements on the sidelines of the contentious G7 summit come just weeks after his administration slapped metals tariffs on Canada, the EU and Mexico, who quickly announced their own retaliatory measures.
Sticking points also remain in the North American Free Trade Agreement (Nafta) renegotiations between Canada, the US and Mexico, despite it being a key topic during the bilateral meeting between Mr Trump and Canadian PM Justin Trudeau.
The American leader said a three-country deal would only be possible with substantial changes, and reiterated his interest instead in forming separate two-way trade accords with Mexico and Canada - an interest Canada has made clear it does not share.
While the consensus-based G7 might well agree on the benefits of both free and fair trade between economic allies, it appears what that could look like it still up for debate.
Image





What is the G7?

It is an annual summit bringing together Canada, the US, the UK, France, Italy, Japan and Germany, which represent more than 60% of global net worth between them.
Economics tops the agenda, although the meetings now always branch off to cover major global issues.
Russia was suspended from the group in 2014 because of its annexation of Crimea from Ukraine. On Friday, Mr Trump made a surprise call for Moscow to be readmitted but German Chancellor Angela Merkel said other members were against the idea.
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anarchism101
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I don't give a damn for free trade, but Trump's sheer incompetence really is remarkable. Despite his claims to be a master negotiator and deal maker, he's revealed himself to be terrible at it. He's repeatedly torn up deals and then completely failed to deliver the replacements he promised. He repeatedly just hands over major bargaining chips* on a whim for nothing in return, and seems to believe this is some major diplomatic coup:
- He basically gave Bibi recognition of Jerusalem on a plate, for no Israeli concessions.
- He agreed, as President, to meet Kim in person, something the North Koreans have wanted for 70 years and previous presidents have thus withheld to use as leverage - again, for no concessions in return.
- And now, he wants to let Russia back into the G7/8, also for nothing. This may sound minor, but it's surprisingly high on Putin's priority list. He was more pissed off about being thrown out of the G8 than he was about the sanctions - for all the Russian statements that they don't care because they're still in the G20, in reality they kind of see G20 as the kids' table and G7/8 as the big boys' table.

Also, he weirdly endorsed the G7 statement when he was there, but then unendorsed it during his plane flight to Singapore. So, have to draw one of three conclusions:
i) He never wanted to sign the statement, but was embarassed about openly rejecting it in front of the other leaders.
ii) He changed his mind just a couple of hours later on a random whim.
iii) He didn't read the statement before endorsing it, but then read it on the flight, and changed his mind based on that.

None of them would surprise me, but I suspect ii) is most likely, which really is bad. At least i) would suggest he has some sort of plan, and iii) would suggest he actually eventually reads stuff. But no, he seems to just go entirely on gut instinct.

It's hard to exaggerate quite how incompetent and unfit for office Trump is. It's not even an ideological logic following rules or a pattern. Almost nothing he does follows any facts or logic.
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04MR17
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The whole Russia thing is just a massive game of "You can't sit with us" :rolleyes:


TSR's government have just allowed Russia to rejoin the G7
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anarchism101
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(Original post by 04MR17)
The whole Russia thing is just a massive game of "You can't sit with us" :rolleyes:
Of course it is. But as long as the Russians want to sit with us (and they do), it's a bargaining chip. Whether or not you approve of Russian activity in recent years is irrelevant here - it's basic negotiation 101 that you don't just give someone what they want for nothing if you want something from them. Case in point, Conte - he wants Russia back in, but in exchange for something.
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Napp
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(Original post by anarchism101)
I don't give a damn for free trade, but Trump's sheer incompetence really is remarkable. Despite his claims to be a master negotiator and deal maker, he's revealed himself to be terrible at it. He's repeatedly torn up deals and then completely failed to deliver the replacements he promised. He repeatedly just hands over major bargaining chips* on a whim for nothing in return, and seems to believe this is some major diplomatic coup:
- He basically gave Bibi recognition of Jerusalem on a plate, for no Israeli concessions.
- He agreed, as President, to meet Kim in person, something the North Koreans have wanted for 70 years and previous presidents have thus withheld to use as leverage - again, for no concessions in return.
- And now, he wants to let Russia back into the G7/8, also for nothing. This may sound minor, but it's surprisingly high on Putin's priority list. He was more pissed off about being thrown out of the G8 than he was about the sanctions - for all the Russian statements that they don't care because they're still in the G20, in reality they kind of see G20 as the kids' table and G7/8 as the big boys' table.

Also, he weirdly endorsed the G7 statement when he was there, but then unendorsed it during his plane flight to Singapore. So, have to draw one of three conclusions:
i) He never wanted to sign the statement, but was embarassed about openly rejecting it in front of the other leaders.
ii) He changed his mind just a couple of hours later on a random whim.
iii) He didn't read the statement before endorsing it, but then read it on the flight, and changed his mind based on that.

None of them would surprise me, but I suspect ii) is most likely, which really is bad. At least i) would suggest he has some sort of plan, and iii) would suggest he actually eventually reads stuff. But no, he seems to just go entirely on gut instinct.

It's hard to exaggerate quite how incompetent and unfit for office Trump is. It's not even an ideological logic following rules or a pattern. Almost nothing he does follows any facts or logic.
He rather comes across as a schizophrenic, or to be more apt a geriatric old man with advanced alzheimers.
If it wasn't so profoundly destructive his impulses would be quite comical.
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Maker
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Its dictator 101, all bad leaders try to make other countries into enemies so people get behind them. Mussolini, Hitler, Stalin and Mugabe all made other countries into enemies and Trump is doing the same with his trade wars against every country except Russia who is a real enemy.
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Napp
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(Original post by Maker)
Its dictator 101, all bad leaders try to make other countries into enemies so people get behind them. Mussolini, Hitler, Stalin and Mugabe all made other countries into enemies and Trump is doing the same with his trade wars against every country except Russia who is a real enemy.
How exactly are they a ‘real enemy’ compared to the likes of China?
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LinleyG
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(Original post by anarchism101)
I don't give a damn for free trade, but Trump's sheer incompetence really is remarkable. Despite his claims to be a master negotiator and deal maker, he's revealed himself to be terrible at it. He's repeatedly torn up deals and then completely failed to deliver the replacements he promised. He repeatedly just hands over major bargaining chips* on a whim for nothing in return, and seems to believe this is some major diplomatic coup:
- He basically gave Bibi recognition of Jerusalem on a plate, for no Israeli concessions.
- He agreed, as President, to meet Kim in person, something the North Koreans have wanted for 70 years and previous presidents have thus withheld to use as leverage - again, for no concessions in return.
- And now, he wants to let Russia back into the G7/8, also for nothing. This may sound minor, but it's surprisingly high on Putin's priority list. He was more pissed off about being thrown out of the G8 than he was about the sanctions - for all the Russian statements that they don't care because they're still in the G20, in reality they kind of see G20 as the kids' table and G7/8 as the big boys' table.

Also, he weirdly endorsed the G7 statement when he was there, but then unendorsed it during his plane flight to Singapore. So, have to draw one of three conclusions:
i) He never wanted to sign the statement, but was embarassed about openly rejecting it in front of the other leaders.
ii) He changed his mind just a couple of hours later on a random whim.
iii) He didn't read the statement before endorsing it, but then read it on the flight, and changed his mind based on that.

None of them would surprise me, but I suspect ii) is most likely, which really is bad. At least i) would suggest he has some sort of plan, and iii) would suggest he actually eventually reads stuff. But no, he seems to just go entirely on gut instinct.

It's hard to exaggerate quite how incompetent and unfit for office Trump is. It's not even an ideological logic following rules or a pattern. Almost nothing he does follows any facts or logic.
I have to say I don’t agree with that. If you had said to someone 2 years ago that in 2 years time the US President would be negotiating any sort of de-nuclearisation programme with North Korea they’d have told you that you were off your head.You certainly wouldn’t have had Hillary Clinton being able to achieve that.
Of course the likes of Germany and France aren’t going to be interested in a common trade arrangement amongst the G7 because they need to protect the EU and frankly in supporting this, it would make their position in negotiating Brexit with Britain much harder ( which despite what they may say publicly is to make sure it’s as hard a Brexit as possible and I suspect Trump knows this and doesn’t believe it will be good for the G7 and Europe long term.) Its just a pity the UK Govt doesn’t realise it.
In relation to Russia - his logic is very simple, it’s better they are in the tent talking than outside the tent walking - into Ukraine or wherever else
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Napp
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(Original post by LinleyG)
I have to say I don’t agree with that. If you had said to someone 2 years ago that in 2 years time the US President would be negotiating any sort of de-nuclearisation programme with North Korea they’d have told you that you were off your head.You certainly wouldn’t have had Hillary Clinton being able to achieve that.
Of course the likes of Germany and France aren’t going to be interested in a common trade arrangement amongst the G7 because they need to protect the EU and frankly in supporting this would make their position in negotiating with Britain much harder.
They want to make Brexit as hard as possible for Britain which is what the UK Govt don’t seem to realise.
I’m relation to Russia - his logic is very simple, it’s better they are in the tent talking than outside the tent walking - into Ukraine or wherever else
It’s probably also got something to do with Britain making Brexit as hard as possible for itself, never mind what the Europeans are doing. The fact they have no negotiating strategy and no government, for all intents and purposes, makes it somewhat hard to negotiate with them.
Equally trump is negotiating nothing as of yet. The north will not be giving up their weapons unless something truly cataclysmic happens.
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04MR17
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(Original post by anarchism101)
Of course it is. But as long as the Russians want to sit with us (and they do), it's a bargaining chip. Whether or not you approve of Russian activity in recent years is irrelevant here - it's basic negotiation 101 that you don't just give someone what they want for nothing if you want something from them. Case in point, Conte - he wants Russia back in, but in exchange for something.
There are far less petty bargaining chips to use.
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anarchism101
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(Original post by Napp)
The north will not be giving up their weapons unless something truly cataclysmic happens.
The most likely cataclysmic thing being a war in which NK will "give up" their weapons by firing them at Tokyo, Guam, Honolulu and San Diego.

Failing that, really our best shot of denuclearising NK is hoping that Kim dies unexpectedly without an obvious family successor, and the resulting scramble for power results in far-reaching concessions from whoever ends up on top. Or failing that, the collapse of the state.
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anarchism101
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(Original post by LinleyG)
I have to say I don’t agree with that. If you had said to someone 2 years ago that in 2 years time the US President would be negotiating any sort of de-nuclearisation programme with North Korea they’d have told you that you were off your head.
If that person was informed on the issue, they really wouldn't. We've already seen such negotiations twice before - the Agreed Framework in 1994, and the 2003-2007 Six Party Talks.

North Korea has never been prepared to give up its nukes. They've only been prepared to agree to a general vague ambition to denuclearise at some point down the line, along with everyone else (something that all nuclear states have done). What's likely to be the core of the deal - a vague declaration on denuclearisation, plus a formal peace treaty for the Korean War - is something any President could have achieved, but chose to withhold until they got more substantive concessions.

There is a difference this time round, in that we're dealing with a North Korea that has largely finished its nuke program rather than still working on it. As such, Kim Jong-Un is likely prepared to concede on things that his father never would have - a cap on his arsenal, destruction of his test sites, signing up to to the CTBT - but this isn't because of pressure of shrewd negotiation on Trump's part, it's because Kim's more or less achieved the arsenal he wants, whereas in all previous talks, his father was still trying to achieve that.


Of course the likes of Germany and France aren’t going to be interested in a common trade arrangement amongst the G7 because they need to protect the EU and frankly in supporting this, it would make their position in negotiating Brexit with Britain much harder ( which despite what they may say publicly is to make sure it’s as hard a Brexit as possible and I suspect Trump knows this and doesn’t believe it will be good for the G7 and Europe long term.) Its just a pity the UK Govt doesn’t realise it.
If Trump knew it, he could quite easily have decoupled the UK from the other five by promising them favourable terms on a post-Brexit US-UK trade deal. He either didn't think of that, or he's just set against offering anyone else a favourable trad deal, I'd believe either.

In relation to Russia - his logic is very simple, it’s better they are in the tent talking than outside the tent walking - into Ukraine or wherever else
G20 serves that purpose. They're not really needed in G8 - Russia's economy was the smallest of the eight countries, and letting them join it was always granting them more economic weight than they would otherwise hold. Letting them back in would be a significant concession.
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ChaoticButterfly
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(Original post by anarchism101)





If Trump knew it, he could quite easily have decoupled the UK from the other five by promising them favourable terms on a post-Brexit US-UK trade deal. He either didn't think of that, or he's just set against offering anyone else a favourable trad deal, I'd believe either.

Someone else must have thought of it and told him though.
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Maker
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(Original post by Napp)
How exactly are they a ‘real enemy’ compared to the likes of China?
Russia poisons people in the street, interferes with elections, hacks computers and invades other countries.
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Maker
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(Original post by anarchism101)
The most likely cataclysmic thing being a war in which NK will "give up" their weapons by firing them at Tokyo, Guam, Honolulu and San Diego.

Failing that, really our best shot of denuclearising NK is hoping that Kim dies unexpectedly without an obvious family successor, and the resulting scramble for power results in far-reaching concessions from whoever ends up on top. Or failing that, the collapse of the state.
NK will never give up its nukes, especially not for Trump, he changes his mind more often than his underwear and don't stick to deals. NK would most likely reduce the number of nukes or at least appear to do so but since what happened to Gadaffi when he gave up his nuclear programme. NK would be stupid to do the same.
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(Original post by 04MR17)
The whole Russia thing is just a massive game of "You can't sit with us" :rolleyes:
Considering events in Crimea, Salisbury and interference in elections, I imagine it makes sense beyond 'you can't sit with us'.


(Original post by Maker)
NK will never give up its nukes, especially not for Trump, he changes his mind more often than his underwear and don't stick to deals. NK would most likely reduce the number of nukes or at least appear to do so but since what happened to Gadaffi when he gave up his nuclear programme. NK would be stupid to do the same.
I'm highly certain Trump will be seeking to ensure, at the very least, NK reduces it's stock of weapons that could potentially hit US territory, in exchange for some easing of sanctions. Beyond that, I don't think they're ever going to fully denuclearise.
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ChaoticButterfly
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(Original post by anarchism101)
It's hard to exaggerate quite how incompetent and unfit for office Trump is. It's not even an ideological logic following rules or a pattern. Almost nothing he does follows any facts or logic.
The flip side is he may allow for some creative destruction by acting as a catalyst for breaking up stalemates. He forces stuff to happen.

I think what explains a lot of Trumps behaviour is that he see deals as a zero sum game with only winners and losers. The idea you can make a trade deal with another country where both parties gain something is totally alien to him. Making deals to trump is purely about ripping people off and if the other side is gaining something that means you are being ripped off. So when he sees the other side doing well from a deal his gut reaction is that the US is being ripped off so he tares up the trade deal. Hence the impulsive trade wars that don't benefit the looser of globalisation (ie the Rustbelt working class) who he is supposedly fighting for.
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anarchism101
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(Original post by ChaoticButterfly)
The flip side is he may allow for some creative destruction by acting as a catalyst for breaking up stalemates. He forces stuff to happen.
I'd distinguish here between domestic and foreign policy.

On foreign policy, though some liberal analysts have predictably been treating this as catastrophic, I think it's not as bad as all that. The next POTUS will have to reconstruct these alliances, but I think they'll only be able to do so with the US in a noticeably reduced capacity. The EU will likely end up as the US' equal partner rather than a junior one.

The only thing I do worry about with regard to foreign policy is the prospect of another arms race with Russia. Trump seems childishly set on destroying everything Obama did, so I think the chances of him renewing New START are low, which worries me. We've spent 30 years cutting down nuclear stockpiles and Trump seems to want to reverse that trend for no obvious reason (except dislike for all his predecessors, and possibly simply because lots of missiles make him feel more manly). That said, the deadline for renewal technically isn't until a couple of weeks into the next presidential term, and Putin does seem to want renewal, so maybe it's not so bad.

Domestically I think it's much more troubling. Not because of any particular actual policy - they're getting quite a lot of pushback - but the sheer corruption and collapse of basic democratic norms that he's started to normalise. The "vaccination theory" (i.e. that Trump's actions will crystallise opposition and strengthen American democracy against similar future attempts to subvert it) isn't really working here like it is to an extent in actual domestic policy areas.

I think what explains a lot of Trumps behaviour is that he see deals as a zero sum game with only winners and losers. The idea you can make a trade deal with another country where both parties gain something is totally alien to him. Making deals to trump is purely about ripping people off and if the other side is gaining something that means you are being ripped off. So when he sees the other side doing well from a deal his gut reaction is that the US is being ripped off so he tares up the trade deal. Hence the impulsive trade wars that don't benefit the looser of globalisation (ie the Rustbelt working class) who he is supposedly fighting for.
Absolutely. This is why whenever some mediating figures (i.e. moderate Republicans, the European governments) present compromises that his opponents (the Democrats, Iran) are still nevertheless willing to accept, he's immediately suspicious of it. He doesn't seem to grasp the possibility of win-win deals.

He also strangely sees the US trade deficit as a bug of the American economy, rather than a feature.
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anarchism101
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(Original post by Napp)
He rather comes across as a schizophrenic, or to be more apt a geriatric old man with advanced alzheimers.
If it wasn't so profoundly destructive his impulses would be quite comical.
Indeed. If this was happening in say, Australia, we'd be treating him purely as a laughing stock, rather than trying to find some pattern we can learn how to manipulate.
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he's a businessman so he thinks he knows what he's doing but while this would work in getting rival companies to back off in the business world, on the international stage it doesn't work like that
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