Is the post-Brexit Irish border a red herring? Watch

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#21
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#21
(Original post by bob072)
They are legally obliged to, if polling continues the way it is.
She would hardly be expected to pay much attention to the sort of conditional polls that are doing the rounds at the moment. And I suspect that, if there was really some evidence of this, the UK Government would conduct its own private polling on the topic before a decision was made.

The Northern Ireland Act notably doesn't specify how a Border Poll should come about. For example, the process to legislate for one on a date in the future could be started, but then stopped if a contrary intention appears. It's not a particularly effective piece of legislation, unless there's an enduring, clear and sustained intention among the people of Northern Ireland to unify with the Republic. In which case, I'd suggest that it would probably happen anyway.
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gerrygerry
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#22
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Therefore NI is a red herring as far as Brexit is concerned,
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revolver777
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#23
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I've thought all along this has been made out to be a bigger problem than it actually is, as an excuse to either not leave the EU properly (i.e. CU and SM) or to not have Brexit at all.

At the end of the day, the UK has come out and said they will never put a border with customs posts up between Ireland and NI.. the Irish government have said they will never put a border up, the EU have assured the Irish they won't have to, the WTO has even said there doesn't have to be a border, and goods flowing between two countries is down to those two countries to determine how this change is governed, and that they would only intervene with a dispute from one of the WTO members. So if it came to a no deal, then who is going to 'erect' this magic border?

All we need to do is propose an international treaty reaffirming that we'd never put up a border, and ask the Irish and EU to sign it. If they refuse, questions would be asked about their real motives in all of this and they would look incredibly stupid after their commitment to the GFA, so of course they would sign it. That then would shift over completely any potential problems to the WTO side of things, say if a country from outside of the EU has reason to think we're treating them unfairly because we're doing full checks on their goods but not across the Irish border. But those disputes take about 18 months and they're complciated and gruelling, so which country is going to go through all that for the sake of a 300 mile border where a tiny percentage of trade flow between the UK and the EU takes place? I mean really? There'll be goods checks everywhere else like Dover - Calais, Rotterdam- Felixstowe etc. so would any WTO member really think this is worth a longwinded dispute? I very highly doubt it. At the very worst we might have to offer to add pre-departure declaration via electronics, but with no customs posts, and no deadline date. Any gradual work towards some kind of light checks would render any dispute meaningless.

It's just so infuriating how remain politicians and many news outlets are talking as though this border issue somehow majorly hinders Brexit, and that a no deal = a border appearing as though it's a stonewall fact. It blatantly isn't the case at all.
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anarchism101
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#24
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(Original post by revolver777)
I've thought all along this has been made out to be a bigger problem than it actually is, as an excuse to either not leave the EU properly (i.e. CU and SM) or to not have Brexit at all.

At the end of the day, the UK has come out and said they will never put a border with customs posts up between Ireland and NI.. the Irish government have said they will never put a border up, the EU have assured the Irish they won't have to, the WTO has even said there doesn't have to be a border, and goods flowing between two countries is down to those two countries to determine how this change is governed, and that they would only intervene with a dispute from one of the WTO members. So if it came to a no deal, then who is going to 'erect' this magic border?
If there are fundamental regulatory differences between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, some sort of border check becomes inevitable. The EU isn't going to just let us ship goods prohibited by EU law into Ireland.

And if we're not going to make any significant divergences from EU law, then what are we leaving for?

All we need to do is propose an international treaty reaffirming that we'd never put up a border, and ask the Irish and EU to sign it.
We're doing that now, it's called the backstop.
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revolver777
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#25
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(Original post by anarchism101)
If there are fundamental regulatory differences between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, some sort of border check becomes inevitable. The EU isn't going to just let us ship goods prohibited by EU law into Ireland.

And if we're not going to make any significant divergences from EU law, then what are we leaving for?



We're doing that now, it's called the backstop.
It would have to go through a lengthy WTO dispute and a unanimous vote from the EU council first, which would be a very unlikely decision from the EU given they've already assured Ireland that they'd never have to put up a hard border, plus the countries like Netherlands who rely on our exports. And you don't need an insurance policy like a backstop which would destroy the UK's negotiating hand completely, basically keeping us in the CU and NI with single market regulations to the UK, which is unacceptable and also in breach of the GFA. A treaty of reaffirmation would more than suffice in this instance.

And again, we're talking about a tiny percentage of the trade that is carried out between the UK and the EU. Everywhere else, all the ports will have checks in place, so there will be those huge differences we're talking about. If there has to be some kind of electronic checks for departures and arrivals through the Irish border, maybe that could be applied in time, or diverting of goods that need full physical checks. Companies make other arrangements etc. There are so many ways around it, it's crazy that it is even this big talking point. If you think about, it was barely mentioned during the referendum campaign compared to the talk of house prices, economic armageddon etc. It's certainly a convenient stumbling block for the politicians who want to keep us as closely aligned to the EU as possible. And like you say, why leave if we have to stay closely aligned? We should leave in full. If it can't be a FTA, then no deal is more than acceptable.

But one thing is certain. The WTO have already said there doesn't have to be a border in a WTO option, and would only intervene in a dispute. Which is very unlikely for even other non-EU countries for that one small border. It just wouldn't be worth it.
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zhog
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Were we to leave without a deal, the boot would be on the other foot. Then it's up to them whether they want a wall or not, it could be the Irish flying to Brussels instead of May.
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bob072
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#27
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#27
Poll out today shows 57% for a united Ireland post-Brexit.
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sammcc86
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#28
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#28
(Original post by bob072)
It's physically impossible to create a border with Northern Ireland without going back to military control. Roads cross it dozens of times and it divides farms and houses. Even if anyone seriously suggested a checkpoint at every crossing there would be smuggling; and for political reasons it's undesirable.


So why not keep an open border like we currently have, for people and goods. We already have different tax rates, currencies and regulations. The fact they might be more different doesn't mean it wouldn't work.


The population of Ireland is less than 7 million people, even if we didn't have zero tariffs surely making an exception for free trade is better than breaking the Good Friday Agreement. We only spot check a tiny proportion of imports to our ports so we can rely on paperwork in Ireland.
Ever crossed the border.. all the open border is, is movement of people is unhindered.. cargo checks still occur.. if they didn't why are cars and vans stopped when transport beer and **** across the border if theirs no checks? All the good friday agreement entails is no disruption of commuters, it speaks nothing of goods which have always had lose checks.
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sammcc86
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#29
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(Original post by bob072)
Poll out today shows 57% for a united Ireland post-Brexit.
Poll by who?
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paul514
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#30
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#30
(Original post by bob072)
Poll out today shows 57% for a united Ireland post-Brexit.
Great if true we can get rid of them.
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TensorTympani
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#31
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(Original post by Napp)
Because it isn't just Britains boarder it is also an EU one and if they don't want a non-boarder there shall not be one. Especially given the hilariously stupid ideas being thought up in Westminster.
Not that stupid because people who want to get into the UK could just come in from Northern Ireland if there was no border there. And the only thing that Westminster have said is about the backstop and that is not permanent.
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Napp
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#32
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(Original post by Shravan177)
Not that stupid because people who want to get into the UK could just come in from Northern Ireland if there was no border there. And the only thing that Westminster have said is about the backstop and that is not permanent.
Like whom exactly? It’s not like we have a tunnel to the continent nor only 20miles of sea.
They hope it wouldn’t be permanent.
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Quady
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#33
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#33
(Original post by sammcc86)
Ever crossed the border.. all the open border is, is movement of people is unhindered.. cargo checks still occur.. if they didn't why are cars and vans stopped when transport beer and **** across the border if theirs no checks? All the good friday agreement entails is no disruption of commuters, it speaks nothing of goods which have always had lose checks.
Goods suddenly includes those which incur duty.

Want to take a couple of bottles of Bushmills home to Cork? No, no, no.
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