No-deal Brexit will it harm the UK's economy?

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London090
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I've heard that Dominic Raab is planning on having a no-deal Brexit what are your thoughts and opinions?
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ByEeek
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It will definitely harm the economy. The question is how much and for how long. And if we see massive queues at Dover and airports we could see massive political upheaval too.
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PilgrimOfTruth
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(Original post by London090)
I've heard that Dominic Raab is planning on having a no-deal Brexit what are your thoughts and opinions?
Yep let's get it done. It's looking clearer and clearer that no-one is going to take BrExit seriously until and unless it is actually done. It's a bit like useless parents telling their naughty kids that if they are naughty again they'll be sent to their bedroom, but the parents never go through with the threat. As a result the kids just keep messing about, pushing the boundaries as far as they can because the threat just seems so unreal.

At present we have bunch of politicians, companies, media pundits etc etc none of whom are taking BrExit seriously. They are all happy to play the stalling game, just keep delaying in the hope that someone will fudge BrExit or hold a 2nd referendum.

No-one is taking it seriously.

A "No deal" hard BrExit is really needed to draw that line, once and for all. Only then will everyone accept that it HAS happened and then start diverting their efforts towards doing the things that need to be done to get the country back on track.

I know it will hurt, but nevertheless I am all for it.

Get us out of the EU

Get us out now

Get it done.

Then we can all move on and adapt.
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Realitysreflexx
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Yes, it will be a self imposed economic downfall. The poorest will suffer and the most talented, richest will snap up more and more control and power in an even smaller circle.

The UK will come out resembling the US even more, especially in income inequality.
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Kernel_Coder
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Although it would be political suicide to admit this publicly, the UK would respond to a "no-deal" scenario with tremendous deregulation of London's financial services sector (and if need be, other areas of the economy).

I think Brexit has 2 outcomes really:

1. A "deal" which is Brexit in name only, nothing much will actually change in the long run, and within 5-10 years things will be pretty much the same as 2014. The UK economy (as with many western economies) relies on a Ponzi-scheme like structure of a continuously increasing population.

2. "No deal", the UK responds by massively deregulating London/other industries to compete, possibly triggering a "race to the bottom".

I find it rather amusing that many who voted for Brexit will be the hardest hit by number 2.

Off-topic: I just hope the pound recovers at some point, Brexit has severely delayed my plan to move to the states, though I'm hopeful for a recovery within the next 3 years.
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ByEeek
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(Original post by PilgrimOfTruth)
A "No deal" hard BrExit is really needed to draw that line, once and for all. Only then will everyone accept that it HAS happened and then start diverting their efforts towards doing the things that need to be done to get the country back on track.

I know it will hurt, but nevertheless I am all for it.

Get us out of the EU

Get us out now

Get it done.

Then we can all move on and adapt.
Your analogy is all wrong. We are playing the role of petulant child. The EU is a club with benefits like a golf club. Folks like you think you can leave but then enjoy better terms than the members afterwards. And now you are suggesting you right off your BMW 7 series on the way out to show you mean business. I am sure you can afford to weather economic melt down but I can't. I'm not having people like you take me down in order to get some mystical soverenty back that we never had in the first place.
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Jammy Duel
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(Original post by ByEeek)
Your analogy is all wrong. We are playing the role of petulant child. The EU is a club with benefits like a golf club. Folks like you think you can leave but then enjoy better terms than the members afterwards. And now you are suggesting you right off your BMW 7 series on the way out to show you mean business. I am sure you can afford to weather economic melt down but I can't. I'm not having people like you take me down in order to get some mystical soverenty back that we never had in the first place.
Would you like to explain then why it is that a number of the demands the EU makes are made solely for the UK? Why did it not demand Japan accept freedom of movement for a trade deal, why did it not demand customs union membership for South Korea, or single market membership for Canada. How about why it is that for all their saying "that isn't good enough" not once have they made proposals themselves, such as with the Irish border; every month we say that we don't want a hard border, the EU say they don't want one, but then they every time say that there is no choice but to have one.

With a bold government the harm of the EU's protectionist policies will become apparent and the biggest beneficiaries are the poorest.
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CountBrandenburg
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Well logically one would have to prepare for no deal anyway... the EU despite having preferences, will not agree to such ideals because they fear should we actually agree to a good deal (not this odd mismatch of remaining all but in name only) more will be willing to hold referendums on the issue of EU membership. A hard Brexit is ideal where there are minimal ties to European bureaucracy and courts but allowing us to form trade deals with members, but as it stands no deal would be better than a soft Brexit ( since it seems to be apparent that the incompetent muppets in government are unwilling to properly negotiate)
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Pantera Fan Club
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When the government might be stockpiling food (
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknew...eal/ar-BBKVw0q) as if rationing and food queues might be needed post-Brexit, you know there might be a problem.
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the bear
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rationing will bring us back together as a Nation, just like in the Blitz.

plus all of the fat people will soon become thin again


https://uki16.files.wordpress.com/20...r-everyone.jpg
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ByEeek
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(Original post by Jammy Duel)
Would you like to explain then why it is that a number of the demands the EU makes are made solely for the UK? Why did it not demand Japan accept freedom of movement for a trade deal, why did it not demand customs union membership for South Korea, or single market membership for Canada. How about why it is that for all their saying "that isn't good enough" not once have they made proposals themselves, such as with the Irish border; every month we say that we don't want a hard border, the EU say they don't want one, but then they every time say that there is no choice but to have one.

With a bold government the harm of the EU's protectionist policies will become apparent and the biggest beneficiaries are the poorest.
Because we are not South Korea, Canada or Japan. And we are not going from a position of nothing to something, we are going from everything to not much. And of course the EU are being protectionist. Why wouldn't they? If your partner decided to suddenly leave and decided to rip out the kitchen as part of the deal would you stand back and offer the dining room?

As for strong government. This issue is so complex and devisive there is no government in the world that could satisfy even one interest. Brexit is basically incompatible with the NI Peace Treaty. So you can either have your beloved trade deals or a return to violence.
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InnerTemple
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(Original post by Jammy Duel)
Would you like to explain then why it is that a number of the demands the EU makes are made solely for the UK? Why did it not demand Japan accept freedom of movement for a trade deal, why did it not demand customs union membership for South Korea, or single market membership for Canada.
Probably because the UK is asking for more than those countries have got. The EU actually suggested that the UK should seek a Canada style deal. However it was the Prime Minister who said no to that, stating that she would get a superior and more comprehensive deal.

The Canadian deal doesn’t offer a comprehensive agreement on services and Canada has no say in regulations and standards on goods traded in the bloc. The UK, as explained by the PM, wants more than the Canadian deal. Services must be covered and we need a say on the rules so that we are not a rule taker.

And that’s the problem. The UK essentially wants things to stay the same but do away with all the negative points - like paying our membership fee and taking heed of rules we don’t much like.

The other thing which makes the UK different is the Irish border issue. No other country I’m aware of finds itself in that predicament. I’d argue that it isn’t necessarily for the EU to come up with a solution. They’ve put their cards on the table - they want no hard border. The UK voted to leave, the UK should now come up with a sensible solution which satisfies both the Brexiter red lines and the Good Friday Agreement (clue: there isn’t one!)
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Realitysreflexx
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(Original post by Kernel_Coder)
Although it would be political suicide to admit this publicly, the UK would respond to a "no-deal" scenario with tremendous deregulation of London's financial services sector (and if need be, other areas of the economy).

I think Brexit has 2 outcomes really:

1. A "deal" which is Brexit in name only, nothing much will actually change in the long run, and within 5-10 years things will be pretty much the same as 2014. The UK economy (as with many western economies) relies on a Ponzi-scheme like structure of a continuously increasing population.

2. "No deal", the UK responds by massively deregulating London/other industries to compete, possibly triggering a "race to the bottom".

I find it rather amusing that many who voted for Brexit will be the hardest hit by number 2.

Off-topic: I just hope the pound recovers at some point, Brexit has severely delayed my plan to move to the states, though I'm hopeful for a recovery within the next 3 years.
Sorry about the pound devaluing, but for me an EU student in the UK brexit has actually been my key to survival so far.

At pound 1.30 to euro i couldnt have existed.

So ironic how Brexit has actually only helped europeans and foreigners, allowed for inflation domestically and hurt most alot of those who voted to "leave".
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999tigger
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(Original post by London090)
I've heard that Dominic Raab is planning on having a no-deal Brexit what are your thoughts and opinions?
In the short term its a definite yes. It could be chaos. That isnt project fear it is reality for people that do business with Europe suddenly having a lot more bureaucracy and delays to deal with.

In the long term harder to say. It could take several years to recover, but whi knows if the UK will be able to make its own trade deals then have a success of it.
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Alfissti
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It will be good for Britain to have a hard No Deal Brexit as every other deal put on the table isn't cutting off the umbilical cord in totality.

The world is changing and in 5 years there probably would be no EU as we know it today anyway so why even bother?
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London090
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What do you guys think about the potential tariff-free trade status of the UK which it may lose after Brexit?
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Quady
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(Original post by London090)
What do you guys think about the potential tariff-free trade status of the UK which it may lose after Brexit?
We dont have tariff free status......
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Quady
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(Original post by Alfissti)
The world is changing and in 5 years there probably would be no EU as we know it today anyway so why even bother?
seems unlikely, it's two years since the brexits vote and nowt happened
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Quady
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(Original post by Kernel_Coder)
Although it would be political suicide to admit this publicly, the UK would respond to a "no-deal" scenario with tremendous deregulation of London's financial services sector (and if need be, other areas of the economy).

I think Brexit has 2 outcomes really:

1. A "deal" which is Brexit in name only, nothing much will actually change in the long run, and within 5-10 years things will be pretty much the same as 2014. The UK economy (as with many western economies) relies on a Ponzi-scheme like structure of a continuously increasing population.

2. "No deal", the UK responds by massively deregulating London/other industries to compete, possibly triggering a "race to the bottom".

I find it rather amusing that many who voted for Brexit will be the hardest hit by number 2.

Off-topic: I just hope the pound recovers at some point, Brexit has severely delayed my plan to move to the states, though I'm hopeful for a recovery within the next 3 years.
How will Nigel Farage be hit hard by brexits?
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Kernel_Coder
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(Original post by Quady)
How will Nigel Farage be hit hard by brexits?
It probably won't have much of an impact on him, but too be fair Farage's economic status (income, upbringing, etc...) is quite different to your average person in the UK...

Don't get me wrong, I'm not actually against deregulation at all. It could be a massive benefit to the UK, it would just be very difficult to market from a political standpoint.
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