The only way we’ll stay in or return to the EU... Watch

Davij038
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Is if a parliamentary party is elected into government with that on their manifesto.

The last election, the only parties elected on such a platform (Lib dems and snp) lost their share of the vote. There will not be a second referendum.

My analysis

Corbyn is playing a very shrewd game and knows that as long as he also technically endorses brexit, the hapless May is on the ropes. If she fails, which she probably will, he can credibly day that we have no choice but to stay in the EU.

Another case we’re the establishment go through the motions of dong what the people want, set it up to fail and then blame the people for their failure. Liberal ‘democracy’ folks
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mojojojo101
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(Original post by Davij038)
.

Another case we’re the establishment go through the motions of dong what the people want, set it up to fail and then blame the people for their failure. Liberal ‘democracy’ folks
Getting your excuses in early. I like it.
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999tigger
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(Original post by Davij038)
Is if a parliamentary party is elected into government with that on their manifesto.

The last election, the only parties elected on such a platform (Lib dems and snp) lost their share of the vote. There will not be a second referendum.

My analysis

Corbyn is playing a very shrewd game and knows that as long as he also technically endorses brexit, the hapless May is on the ropes. If she fails, which she probably will, he can credibly day that we have no choice but to stay in the EU.

Another case we’re the establishment go through the motions of dong what the people want, set it up to fail and then blame the people for their failure. Liberal ‘democracy’ folks
This is some pretty deep analysis by you davij have you ever thought of running for office?
We have already said we are leaving. the only change now is whether they cobble together a deal or not.
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Trinculo
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(Original post by Davij038)
Is if a parliamentary party is elected into government with that on their manifesto.

The last election, the only parties elected on such a platform (Lib dems and snp) lost their share of the vote. There will not be a second referendum.

My analysis

Corbyn is playing a very shrewd game and knows that as long as he also technically endorses brexit, the hapless May is on the ropes. If she fails, which she probably will, he can credibly day that we have no choice but to stay in the EU.

Another case we’re the establishment go through the motions of dong what the people want, set it up to fail and then blame the people for their failure. Liberal ‘democracy’ folks
What are you on about? Corbyn does and always has fundamentally opposed the EU on a philosophical basis. It's part of his mad Trot view of the world.
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Davij038
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(Original post by mojojojo101)
Getting your excuses in early. I like it.
I voted remain and aren’t that bothered as I think the EU is going down a nationalist route, (if it does I’d be die hard remain).

I’m this case I’m calling it how I see it
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Davij038
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(Original post by Trinculo)
What are you on about? Corbyn does and always has fundamentally opposed the EU on a philosophical basis. It's part of his mad Trot view of the world.
Sure. But he’s also willing to sell out on that if it gets him elected- as we saw from him endorsing remain in the referendum.
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nulli tertius
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(Original post by Trinculo)
What are you on about? Corbyn does and always has fundamentally opposed the EU on a philosophical basis. It's part of his mad Trot view of the world.
But he is in a minority amongst the southern lefties that back him, although less so amongst the northern machine politicians who don't.

As a result he is trying to keep his head down and hope that either May sorts this out on her watch or we run out of time so that he can put forward a "buy more time" scenario with broad support.
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ChaoticButterfly
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(Original post by Trinculo)
What are you on about? Corbyn does and always has fundamentally opposed the EU on a philosophical basis. It's part of his mad Trot view of the world.
Corbyn was a bennite, not a trot.

Also Trotsky supported a United States of Europe.
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Trinculo
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(Original post by ChaoticButterfly)
Corbyn was a bennite, not a trot.

Also Trotsky supported a United States of Europe.
You are right here. I use Trot as a term of derision -not that being a Bennite is much better. Also, Trotsky's United Europe was obv a socialist one.
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ChaoticButterfly
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(Original post by Davij038)
Another case we’re the establishment go through the motions of dong what the people want, set it up to fail and then blame the people for their failure. Liberal ‘democracy’ folks
It will never be their fault. Instead it will be some other.

Bad economic fallout from leaving will not result in demand to re-enter the EU. It will get channeled elsewhere.
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ChaoticButterfly
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(Original post by Trinculo)
You are right here. I use Trot as a term of derision
And thus making it devoid of all meaning.

Nope. Trotsky supported a capitalist United States of Europe.

"If the capitalist states of Europe succeeded in merging into an imperialist trust, this would be a step forward as compared with the existing situation, for it would first of all create a unified, all-European material base for the working class movement. The proletariat would in this case have to fight not for the return to “autonomous” national states, but for the conversion of the imperialist state trust into a European Republican Federation. "

https://www.marxists.org/archive/tro.../06/europe.htm

It's in line with the general marxist view that capitalism lays the ground work for communism, and that nationalism is a major barrier to prolertariet class conscoiusness.

I'm sure something can be said about the increasing globalised world we live in now and this.
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Davij038
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(Original post by 999tigger)
This is some pretty deep analysis by you davij have you ever thought of running for office?[
👍🏻
Not unless someone deletes my tsr posts! 😂

I would, but I’m pretty sure someone would shoot me.

We have already said we are leaving. the only change now is whether they cobble together a deal or not.
They’ll make up a deal it’ll just be rubbish
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nulli tertius
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(Original post by Davij038)
Is if a parliamentary party is elected into government with that on their manifesto.

The last election, the only parties elected on such a platform (Lib dems and snp) lost their share of the vote. There will not be a second referendum.

My analysis

Corbyn is playing a very shrewd game and knows that as long as he also technically endorses brexit, the hapless May is on the ropes. If she fails, which she probably will, he can credibly day that we have no choice but to stay in the EU.

Another case we’re the establishment go through the motions of dong what the people want, set it up to fail and then blame the people for their failure. Liberal ‘democracy’ folks
There is no Parliamentary majority for anything and May must know that.

That means there has to be a game changer:-

1 Referendum. Still the most likely. A one question referendum with three answers will be seen as a fix. AV runs the risk that the her deal is the lowest supported option. A two question referendum would work.

2 An election. Unless she has an overwhelming victory, the problem isn't cured. If Corbyn wins narrowly the Labour Brexiteers will gang up with the Tories. If Corbyn wins handsomely, it becomes Corbyn's problem. If the Tories win narrowly, will the radical Brexiteers/Remainers consider themselves bound by the national manifesto? Why should they. If you vote Rees-Mogg, you know he doesn't support a Brexit fudge. Likewise you know Grieve is a Remainer.

3 A coupon election? Does she have enough power in the Party to require a pledge of loyalty in order to secure Central Office supportand make that stick?

4 A National government? If Corbyn starts deselecting, those in peril might be willing to form a new party to go into coalition in return for no Tory opposition at a general election.


4 A deal with the Scots? Could May sell Davidson down the river for SNP support in return for an independence referendum?

5 Liberals? What could she offer them and deliver, given that Cameron wasn't able to give them PR?

6 The Irish? Any deal to get the Shiners on board would surely lose the DUP and she needs both.

7 Any others?
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ChaoticButterfly
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(Original post by nulli tertius)
But he is in a minority amongst the southern lefties that back him, although less so amongst the northern machine politicians who don't.
Where does this idea come from that no one in the north supports corbyn?

The south west has always been a bad place for labour.

Or that there are no working class poeple in the south...
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nulli tertius
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(Original post by ChaoticButterfly)
Where does this idea come from that no one in the north supports corbyn?

The south west has always been a bad place for labour.

Or that there are no working class poeple in the south...
It is a generalisation about factions in the Labour Party.
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Davij038
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(Original post by ChaoticButterfly)
It will never be their fault. Instead it will be some other.

Bad economic fallout from leaving will not result in demand to re-enter the EU. It will get channeled elsewhere.
But real Brexits never been tried 😂
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Davij038
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(Original post by nulli tertius)
There is no Parliamentary majority for anything and May must know that.
Given last years manifestos from both labour and cons there is actually a big mandate for brexit.



That means there has to be a game changer:-

1 Referendum. Still the most likely. A one question referendum with three answers will be seen as a fix. AV runs the risk that the her deal is the lowest supported option. A two question referendum would work.
But this has already happened...

This is rightly seen as a fix.

2 An election. Unless she has an overwhelming victory, the problem isn't cured. If Corbyn wins narrowly the Labour Brexiteers will gang up with the Tories. If Corbyn wins handsomely, it becomes Corbyn's problem. If the Tories win narrowly, will the radical Brexiteers/Remainers consider themselves bound by the national manifesto? Why should they. If you vote Rees-Mogg, you know he doesn't support a Brexit fudge. Likewise you know Grieve is a remainer
A pro eu Corbyn labour vs a pro brexit (walk away) mogg con is probably the best option for getting us out of this mess. Would be a treat to watch too.

3 A coupon election? Does she have
enough power in the Party to require a pledge of loyalty in order to secure Central Office supportand make that stick?

4 A National government? If Corbyn starts deselecting, those in peril might be willing to form a new party to go into coalition in return for no Tory opposition at a general election.


4 A deal with the Scots? Could May sell Davidson down the river for SNP support in return for an independence referendum?

5 Liberals? What could she offer them and deliver, given that Cameron wasn't able to give them PR?

6 The Irish? Any deal to get the Shiners on board would surely lose the DUP and she needs both.

7 Any others?
Not credible at all
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nulli tertius
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(Original post by Davij038)
Given last years manifestos from both labour and cons there is actually a big mandate for brexit.
A mandate is only a mandate if politicians and the public see it as a mandate, and they don't. Brexiteers, rightly, hark back to the referendum as conferring the legitimacy of their position, not the election.


But this has already happened...

This is rightly seen as a fix.
What is seen as a fix? The public will be understanding of a fresh referendum if May can't get anything through the Commons.

A pro eu Corbyn labour vs a pro brexit (walk away) mogg con is probably the best option for getting us out of this mess. Would be a treat to watch too.
But that is simply saying "I don't want to start from here".

May has a majority of the Parliamentary Party and will keep that and so can only quit voluntarily. If she goes, there is no reasonable scenario in which Rees-Mogg could succeed her.


Not credible at all
What odds would have given me in 2009 on a formal Tory/Liberal coalition? What odds would you have given me in 2016 on a DUP confidence and supply arrangement?

Politics is the art of the possible and if the pressure is great enough, anything can happen.
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ChaoticButterfly
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(Original post by nulli tertius)
It is a generalisation about factions in the Labour Party.
yeah and it's a bad one

it's a culture war line
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StriderHort
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(Original post by nulli tertius)

4 A deal with the Scots? Could May sell Davidson down the river for SNP support in return for an independence referendum?
Good god no! SNP would suffer immediate open revolt if they tried to deal with the Tories, and they know that. May has no authority, no credibility here and nothing to offer. She's just spent most of the year trying to strip the devolved G'ments of powers, so nah, Don't think they'll have much luck up here, Labour either.
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