Theresa May gets Chequers Deal rejected Watch

JMR2019.
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https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-45586010

Donald Tusk has said Theresa May’s Chequers plan won’t work. What are your thoughts?
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ThomH97
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That's absolutely fine. We can have the border in Ireland non-existent so we have free trade, and the checks on employees for their right to work that we already do will sort out illegal workers. Tourists are fine, they pay in. This is actually pretty close to the 'ideal' Brexit of free trade but not movement.
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JMR2019.
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(Original post by ThomH97)
That's absolutely fine. We can have the border in Ireland non-existent so we have free trade, and the checks on employees for their right to work that we already do will sort out illegal workers. Tourists are fine, they pay in. This is actually pretty close to the 'ideal' Brexit of free trade but not movement.
Don’t you think there’s a risk of crashing out with no deal?
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ThomH97
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(Original post by JMR2018)
Don’t you think there’s a risk of crashing out with no deal?
That is the no deal scenario. It would be on the EU to instigate stricter border checks between ROI and mainland Europe if they wanted to stop free trade (the UK wants this, so we have no reason to put effort into that), and if they cba to do it then they might as well formalise it between GB and rEU as a whole.
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JMR2019.
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(Original post by ThomH97)
That is the no deal scenario. It would be on the EU to instigate stricter border checks between ROI and mainland Europe if they wanted to stop free trade (the UK wants this, so we have no reason to put effort into that), and if they cba to do it then they might as well formalise it between GB and rEU as a whole.
I see, well that’s an interesting perspective!
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ThomH97
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(Original post by JMR2018)
I see, well that’s an interesting perspective!
What do you see happening if there's no deal? I think the EU needs a deal more than us, as the restrictions we want are easier for us to implement than the restrictions they would want. They could play hardball with mutually beneficial things like the EAW, but I would like to think they aren't that foolish.
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L i b
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A no-deal outcome goes far beyond borders and trade, though. There's some real considerations around things like shared institutions, international treaties and conventions and so on. We'd be OK in the long-run, but the Day 1 consequences are enough to put the fear into me.
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mojojojo101
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(Original post by ThomH97)
That is the no deal scenario. It would be on the EU to instigate stricter border checks between ROI and mainland Europe if they wanted to stop free trade (the UK wants this, so we have no reason to put effort into that), and if they cba to do it then they might as well formalise it between GB and rEU as a whole.
The UK is leaving the EU to get power over its borders again. Do you honestly think, the first thing the UK government will do is throw their hands in the air and refuse to do any level of border checks at the border with ROI?

That is some really fanciful **** right there.
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ThomH97
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(Original post by mojojojo101)
The UK is leaving the EU to get power over its borders again. Do you honestly think, the first thing the UK government will do is throw their hands in the air and refuse to do any level of border checks at the border with ROI?

That is some really fanciful **** right there.
The UK wants free trade, and doesn't want immigrants taking jobs. This is addressed by open borders and job checks
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mojojojo101
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(Original post by ThomH97)
The UK wants free trade, and doesn't want immigrants taking jobs. This is addressed by open borders and job checks
That isn't a realistic solution.

Firstly, it isn't a sell-able solution politically

Secondly, you must see the potential problems with moving the burden of border enforcement almost entirely from central government onto business. Not only would it encourage black market labour and exploitation it would significantly increase the cost and regulation placed on business, ie, not going to happen under a Tory government.

Goods also have to be checked at borders or do you propose also abandoning all rules and regulations that dictate what a product must and must not be to be sold in the UK?
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ThomH97
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(Original post by mojojojo101)
That isn't a realistic solution.

Firstly, it isn't a sell-able solution politically

Secondly, you must see the potential problems with moving the burden of border enforcement almost entirely from central government onto business. Not only would it encourage black market labour and exploitation it would significantly increase the cost and regulation placed on business, ie, not going to happen under a Tory government.

Goods also have to be checked at borders or do you propose also abandoning all rules and regulations that dictate what a product must and must not be to be sold in the UK?
Businesses are already required to check their prospective employees have a right to work here. That's no change.

Goods from the EU are already made to certain standards, as are British goods. A Mercedes built in Germany to EU standards won't suddenly become a death trap because nobody kicked its tyres on British soil. The EU and Britain will likely end up very aligned on product standards.
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JMR2019.
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(Original post by ThomH97)
Businesses are already required to check their prospective employees have a right to work here. That's no change.

Goods from the EU are already made to certain standards, as are British goods. A Mercedes built in Germany to EU standards won't suddenly become a death trap because nobody kicked its tyres on British soil. The EU and Britain will likely end up very aligned on product standards.
But if the EU decided to enforce a border then there will be a hard border in NI, which is a problem, no?
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ThomH97
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(Original post by JMR2018)
But if the EU decided to enforce a border then there will be a hard border in NI, which is a problem, no?
They're going to have to sell that idea to ROI. Or decide not to enforce the border
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soft boy
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We need a hard Brexit. May must step aside and let Rees Mogg led the country to freedom and prosperity.
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DJKL
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(Original post by ThomH97)
They're going to have to sell that idea to ROI. Or decide not to enforce the border
On a WTO exit neither the EU or UK can likely not have a border without opening our borders to all countries, under WTO we would need to treat the EU the same as we treat all countries in the world (MFN provisions), so no border absent a trade agreement likely means no border with any country.

Have a look at MFN on the WTO website:

https://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e..._e/fact2_e.htm
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ThomH97
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(Original post by DJKL)
On a WTO exit neither the EU or UK can likely not have a border without opening our borders to all countries, under WTO we would need to treat the EU the same as we treat all countries in the world (MFN provisions), so no border absent a trade agreement likely means no border with any country.

Have a look at MFN on the WTO website:

https://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e..._e/fact2_e.htm
Looks like a free trade agreement with no border it is then. In practice we can't be forced to have watertight customs even if we wanted to (and we can just say the right things regarding wanting to secure borders etc), and ROI won't want it either on the EU's side.

What the EU can offer us to convince us to accept unskilled labour is up to them to try.
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anarchism101
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(Original post by L i b)
A no-deal outcome goes far beyond borders and trade, though. There's some real considerations around things like shared institutions, international treaties and conventions and so on. We'd be OK in the long-run, but the Day 1 consequences are enough to put the fear into me.
The reason we'd be OK in the long run is essentially because there's not really such a thing as no deal in the long run. If no deal is done before March 2019, then what we'll get is a collection of small-scale ad hoc deals done under the radar. How quickly they'll get done really depends on how prepared the government is. If they're prepared, they'll have some barebones frameworks in place by Brexit day to smooth things over. If not, we're going to see a few weeks of chaos. Most likely those small-scale deals will, within a few months, be replaced by a more comprehensive deal slightly worse than one we could have accepted pre-March.
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Zarek
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To be honest she's on a sticky wicket as the EU leaders do of course wish to punish us for leaving and there is no legitimate answer to the NI border other than a fudge. Add to this the incompetence of setting up a referendum with a narrow outcome, an election that loses the government majority and an extraordinarily poor negotiating approach. I am really not sure what is best to do. Perhaps there's an 11th hour deal yet, depends how much they want the £39bn. I'm increasingly of the view that a referendum on a hard Brexit is necessary so the people have some facts and we check there is a mandate for the painful unpicking of EU membership.
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The RAR
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Nothing will work out with them, they are hellbent on making an example out of us.
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nulli tertius
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(Original post by The RAR)
Nothing will work out with them, they are hellbent on making an example out of us.
Come off it. This is a complete set up. She is about to face the screaming hoardes at the Tory Party conference and this “row” in Salzburg has given her the opportunity to look Churchillian. All the right wing critics of her leadership have suddenly shut up.
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