Odds on a second EU referendum are now 7/5!! Watch

999tigger
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#21
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#21
(Original post by AstroNandos)
Seeing as you can't be leaving and joining the EU whenever you like, a second referundum would essentially be binding (though not legally) as the government would use that outcome as how they would proceed with brexit.

How is his example false? What is to say there can't be a third referendum if the second is remain? If public opinion was obviously leave, would you be against a third referendum if the public wanted one before brexit day?
Because in what situation would the UK public change its mind within 1 week sufficient to persuade the powers that be another referendum was needed? A tie? You can have as many referendums as the government of the time is willing to allow.
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Sir Cumference
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#22
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#22
(Original post by 999tigger)
Your example is false, but yes they can change their minds as many times as they want. Referendums are advisory and not binding.
The problem here is that a second referendum result would almost certainly be what we go with because we’re running out of time. If a week after we vote to remain, everyone realises that Brexit would be fantastic then it’s too late.

I think people who claim that a second referendum is undemocratic do make a valid point and some commentators dismiss these opinions too quickly.
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Zerforax
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#23
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(Original post by AstroNandos)
Of course they are. A second referendum in my eyes could either split the leave vote (if there's multiple options), or remain could essentially be forced upon us with the EU only offering a bad deal pre-brexit

I think it's better to just get on with it, even if it means assuming no deal. If the majority of the electorate really did want a second referendum and really did want to remain then that's fairs, I just see it as a bit of a loophole tbh
I think all we're being shown now is how flawed the initial referendum was.

Voting to remain part of the EU was clear enough since we knew the terms of the membership. "Leave the EU", as we are seeing now, is very broad and our own government have been arguing for almost 2 years about what that means or should mean. If the vote was "Leave the EU, rely on WTO trade rules until a bespoke trade deal can be agree with the EU", I'd have a little more respect for the result of the vote since it would've had some clarity on what you were voting for.
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the bear
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#24
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#24
unfortunately we are stuck with the ridiculous decision to leave the European Union. the decision is democratically binding... in a year or so we should not say "we must re-run the General Election because the outcome was tragic"

that's democracy folks... don'tcha just love it ?

:emo:
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Dez
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#25
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#25
(Original post by Reality Check)
And all the time appearing to the EU like a group of incompetent tîts (I'm not sure what the group noun for that is)
A parliament.
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Reality Check
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#26
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#26
(Original post by Dez)
A parliament.
:rofl: that's good
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username1221160
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#27
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#27
(Original post by Johnathan94)
I honestly can't believe that 2 years after the vote, we've only just come up with an idea of what we'd like to achieve out of the negotiations.
For all the bluster about how we need to leave the EU, it is shocking that no one bothered to plan viable exit strategies. All we got is vague plans and outlandish promises of the our future success. Then the realisation hit that extricating ourselves from the EU is a complicated task.

I'm a Remainer but no matter which side you're on, it should be so clear to anyone that the Conservative party bungled this in a big way.
I'm cynical enough to believe Brexit was always about the Conservative party, rather than Brexit per se. The referendum was an attempt by Cameron to to address the infighting by the Tory eurosceptic rump and the threat of UKIP. It backfired. Unfortunately the British electorate then deemed the very same party to be best placed to deliver Brexit (granted, the alternative was not much better). Unsurprisingly, we've had two years of infighting and weak leadership.
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navarre
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#28
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I'm not convinced we have time to even have a second referendum. We have six months- actually, slightly less. So many things would have to align in the space of that short time to make a second referendum possible.
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the bear
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#29
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#29
the Brexit Asteroid is hurtling towards us.... it will shortly render the dinosaurs of our political system extinct

:emo:
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Dez
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#30
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#30
(Original post by navarre)
I'm not convinced we have time to even have a second referendum. We have six months- actually, slightly less. So many things would have to align in the space of that short time to make a second referendum possible.
Well, it's possible in theory. The snap election was held less than 2 months after it was first announced.
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Rock Fan
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#31
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#31
What is gonna be, a best of 3?
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Rakas21
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#32
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#32
(Original post by Notnek)
A few months ago I laughed in the face of people who thought there would be a second referendum - it seemed inconceivable to me. That's all changed now. The odds seem to think it's a really close call:

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics...-eu-referendum

We're living in crazy times.
I personally still dont consider a second referendum likely.

There is no real scenario in which the Tories would go for a second referendum over a general election and if a general election occurs Lab would pick a side.

Now the odds on a general election are worth taking.
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TheGame314
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#33
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The other day, I saw an article about how in a few months' time, enough senior citizens will have died, and enough young adults will have come of voting age, that even without allowing for any change in how people vote (and there are many people who've changed their minds, there's no doubt about that)- the demographic shift will have been sufficient to swing a Remain majority. Hard to project a 'will of the people' argument then, since the British population will have changed.
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DJKL
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#34
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#34
(Original post by 999tigger)
I think you would do it by elimination so you always got rid of the least popular choice.

British public by election can vote for whatever government they want.

The problems with Brexit are multiple.

Tiny majority.

Terms of deal unknown

Situation now is different from what people were led to believe they might get.


All that said I dont think there will be another one. rather just get on with it.
So , some form of STV system. The Lib Dems would love that, they get a Referendum and an alternative way to vote all on one day.
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999tigger
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#35
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#35
(Original post by DJKL)
So , some form of STV system. The Lib Dems would love that, they get a Referendum and an alternative way to vote all on one day.
That would be the only way imo to narrow down which form of brexit they want.

The problem at the moment is brexit means a different brexit depending on who you talk to. the only certain thing is we cease to be a member of the EU.

It would seem to be common sense otherwise you will just have a split vote that could prejudice either side. this is why its such a mess.

I dont think a second referendum is likely and as is then its likely to cause deep divisions in the country worse than it is currently experiencing.

The way it has evolved and been handled has been very damaging to the UK.
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DJKL
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#36
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#36
(Original post by 999tigger)
That would be the only way imo to narrow down which form of brexit they want.

The problem at the moment is brexit means a different brexit depending on who you talk to. the only certain thing is we cease to be a member of the EU.

It would seem to be common sense otherwise you will just have a split vote that could prejudice either side. this is why its such a mess.

I dont think a second referendum is likely and as is then its likely to cause deep divisions in the country worse than it is currently experiencing.

The way it has evolved and been handled has been very damaging to the UK.
But first we need a referendum to determine the form of STV to be used in our ultimate Brexit Referendum; for a brief few weeks the whole UK forgets Brexit and instead debates voting systems.
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Rakas21
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#37
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(Original post by TheGame314)
The other day, I saw an article about how in a few months' time, enough senior citizens will have died, and enough young adults will have come of voting age, that even without allowing for any change in how people vote (and there are many people who've changed their minds, there's no doubt about that)- the demographic shift will have been sufficient to swing a Remain majority. Hard to project a 'will of the people' argument then, since the British population will have changed.
Whatever you read was talking rubbish. Even if turnout was static and you only replaced dead leavers with new remainers then you move at 0.2% per year.

The demographic threat to the Tories and Leavers is somewhat overstated this side of 2030.
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999tigger
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#38
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#38
(Original post by DJKL)
But first we need a referendum to determine the form of STV to be used in our ultimate Brexit Referendum; for a brief few weeks the whole UK forgets Brexit and instead debates voting systems.
Nope the government can decide that.

If the referendum had been thought through then we wouldnt be in this mess.
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nulli tertius
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#39
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#39
(Original post by Rakas21)
I personally still dont consider a second referendum likely.

There is no real scenario in which the Tories would go for a second referendum over a general election and if a general election occurs Lab would pick a side.

Now the odds on a general election are worth taking.
A general election has only come back on the agenda because the Conservatives have had a whisker of a lead in September. No-one was considering the possibility of an election in August. Another referendum allows the Conservatives to roll the dice without the risk of losing power.
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username1221160
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#40
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#40
(Original post by Rakas21)

Now the odds on a general election are worth taking.
Well, Theresa May has made it quite clear that we will not be having a general election.

We all know what happened last time she was so adamant about not having a general election.
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