Odds on a second EU referendum are now 7/5!! Watch

Rakas21
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#41
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#41
(Original post by nulli tertius)
A general election has only come back on the agenda because the Conservatives have had a whisker of a lead in September. No-one was considering the possibility of an election in August. Another referendum allows the Conservatives to roll the dice without the risk of losing power.
Tories have led most months since March largely due to the fact that May developed a double digit preferred PM lead over Corbyn.

While i see your logic your coming from the wrong angle. Bar 30 MP's all Tory MP's have accepted Brexit, the choice is simply a moderate deal or something close to no deal with about 200 MP's backing May's moderate deal as the plurality.

With no Tory support to overturn Brexit the only vote we get will be to ratify and they won't risk remain heading on the ballot paper. Hence they either hope the erg will cave or go for election, there's simply no imputus for a second referendum from the Tory side.
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nulli tertius
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#42
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(Original post by Rakas21)
Tories have led most months since March largely due to the fact that May developed a double digit preferred PM lead over Corbyn.

While i see your logic your coming from the wrong angle. Bar 30 MP's all Tory MP's have accepted Brexit, the choice is simply a moderate deal or something close to no deal with about 200 MP's backing May's moderate deal as the plurality.

With no Tory support to overturn Brexit the only vote we get will be to ratify and they won't risk remain heading on the ballot paper. Hence they either hope the erg will cave or go for election, there's simply no imputus for a second referendum from the Tory side.
The purpose of a referendum is to seek endorsement not to present a real choice. Without something the vast majority of Remainers would vote for, you would see abstentionism and that would undermine the validity of the referendum. May is seeking to persuade MPs who do not support her to go with the "will of the people" and that means that the result would have to have credibility.
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Anon4012
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#43
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#43
Hi Guys, for those worried about what Brexit is doing you might like to support this petition.

Parliament should stop a 'no-deal' Brexit
https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/262986
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DraconisAudiat
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#44
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#44
Odds of a second referendum (Before the end of 2020) are now at 7/5, they've gone up a lot in the last year or so since this thread started.
Probably because the options for a successful Brexit become more varied and more idiotic with each passing day.
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paul514
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#45
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#45
(Original post by DraconisAudiat)
Odds of a second referendum (Before the end of 2020) are now at 7/5, they've gone up a lot in the last year or so since this thread started.
Probably because the options for a successful Brexit become more varied and more idiotic with each passing day.
What are the odds of one not happening
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ColinDent
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#46
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#46
(Original post by paul514)
What are the odds of one not happening
Currently 1/100 on according to oddschecker, and anyone that takes 7/5 for one is a mug.

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics...-eu-referendum
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Sir Cumference
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#47
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#47
(Original post by ColinDent)
Currently 1/100 on according to oddschecker, and anyone that takes 7/5 for one is a mug.

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics...-eu-referendum
That’s “before 2020” instead of “before the end of 2020”. If there is a second referendum then it’s very unlikely to be this year. The above poster’s odds are valid and you can see them in the link you shared.
Last edited by Sir Cumference; 3 weeks ago
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paul514
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#48
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#48
(Original post by ColinDent)
Currently 1/100 on according to oddschecker, and anyone that takes 7/5 for one is a mug.

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics...-eu-referendum
Exactly what I was thinking
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Sir Cumference
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#49
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#49
(Original post by paul514)
What are the odds of one not happening
1/2 before the end of 2020.
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ColinDent
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#50
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#50
(Original post by Sir Cumference)
1/2 before the end of 2020.
Not before the end of 2020 it isn't, check out the link I posted.
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Sir Cumference
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#51
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#51
(Original post by ColinDent)
Not before the end of 2020 it isn't, check out the link I posted.
“Before the end of 2020” and “before 2021” are the same thing.
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Fullofsurprises
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#52
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#52
(Original post by DraconisAudiat)
Odds of a second referendum (Before the end of 2020) are now at 7/5, they've gone up a lot in the last year or so since this thread started.
Probably because the options for a successful Brexit become more varied and more idiotic with each passing day.
I suppose this reflects the betting market view, but I think they are really bad odds. I don't think there's much chance of a second referendum, because the people who really matter in both Labour (the hard core leftwing surrounding Jeremy Corbyn - we can safely ignore Starmer, he has no final influence) and the Tories are against it. It's far more likely there will be a general election and a clear Boris majority.
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ColinDent
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#53
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#53
(Original post by Sir Cumference)
That’s “before 2020” instead of “before the end of 2020”. If there is a second referendum then it’s very unlikely to be this year. The above poster’s odds are valid and you can see them in the link you shared.
Oops my bad, many apologies to both yourself ( for my other reply to you) and the other poster.
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ColinDent
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#54
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(Original post by Fullofsurprises)
I suppose this reflects the betting market view, but I think they are really bad odds. I don't think there's much chance of a second referendum, because the people who really matter in both Labour (the hard core leftwing surrounding Jeremy Corbyn - we can safely ignore Starmer, he has no final influence) and the Tories are against it. It's far more likely there will be a general election and a clear Boris majority.
I have to agree with this, I think the odds are coming in because there's been a gamble on a referendum being attached to the Withdrawal Bill.
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Fullofsurprises
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#55
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(Original post by ColinDent)
I have to agree with this, I think the odds are coming in because there's been a gamble on a referendum being attached to the Withdrawal Bill.
Yes, there are probably other misread factors, like the size of the demo on Saturday and Keir Starmer's attempts to get Ref 2.0 back in today - the average punter won't get the subtleties of Starmer's weak position in the Labour heirarchy.
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ColinDent
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#56
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(Original post by Fullofsurprises)
Yes, there are probably other misread factors, like the size of the demo on Saturday and Keir Starmer's attempts to get Ref 2.0 back in today - the average punter won't get the subtleties of Starmer's weak position in the Labour heirarchy.
True, plus if the government do "pull" the bill then it will make an election even more likely as the SNP would now almost certainly back one.
It's actually quite a clever move by the Tories.
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Sleathable
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#57
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#57
(Original post by 999tigger)
Even if its voted for in a general election?

Are the British public ever allowed to change their minds?
That's funny

They were never asked to be part of the EU in the first place
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ColinDent
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#58
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#58
I see the odds are now 4/11 that there will be no 2nd referendum before 2021 so the bookies feel that the chances of one is now less likely.
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imlikeahermit
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#59
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#59
While I want all of this nonsense to stop with Brexit, I'm fully supportive of the Lib Dems just revoking Article 50 rather than a referendum. The issue with a second referendum is that you'll have the idiots who will change their opinion to 'respect the first vote' like most of the cowards in parliament did, instead of sticking to what they believe in. I do fear that the Remain vote would struggle because of this.
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Sleathable
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#60
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#60
(Original post by imlikeahermit)
While I want all of this nonsense to stop with Brexit, I'm fully supportive of the Lib Dems just revoking Article 50 rather than a referendum. The issue with a second referendum is that you'll have the idiots who will change their opinion to 'respect the first vote' like most of the cowards in parliament did, instead of sticking to what they believe in. I do fear that the Remain vote would struggle because of this.
Another anti democratic who doesnt want to the public to choose whether they are run but the EU or not.
The UK never even voted to join the EU and now you say they can't choose to leave either.
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