Odds on a second EU referendum are now 7/5!! Watch

paul514
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#81
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#81
(Original post by Fullofsurprises)
We're actually well down the EU table for tax take as a percentage of national income.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-48988052

For a few tax’s measured not on ALL taxation that people pay for instance it misses duties and VAT
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nulli tertius
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#82
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#82
(Original post by paul514)
For a few tax’s measured not on ALL taxation that people pay for instance it misses duties and VAT
No, these figures measure all taxes and also take account of the fact that in the US much tax revenue is taken by state and local governments.

Here is the data

https://www.oecd.org/tax/tax-policy/...s-brochure.pdf
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Quady
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#83
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#83
(Original post by ColinDent)
I have to agree with this, I think the odds are coming in because there's been a gamble on a referendum being attached to the Withdrawal Bill.
Also the 1/6 odds odds the Conservatives dont win the most seats in the general election.
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ColinDent
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#84
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#84
(Original post by Quady)
Also the 1/6 odds odds the Conservatives dont win the most seats in the general election.
It's 2/11 that they do.
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paul514
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#85
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#85
(Original post by nulli tertius)
No, these figures measure all taxes and also take account of the fact that in the US much tax revenue is taken by state and local governments.

Here is the data

https://www.oecd.org/tax/tax-policy/...s-brochure.pdf
I’ve seen a report summary before that said it was corporation tax, income tax and one other I can’t remember off the top of my head.
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FakeNewsEditor
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#86
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#86
(Original post by paul514)
For a few tax’s measured not on ALL taxation that people pay for instance it misses duties and VAT
It includes property taxes, income taxes, social security contributions, taxes on goods and services and ''other'' which I cba to check what it is. So, yeah, it does include VAT.
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paul514
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#87
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#87
(Original post by FakeNewsEditor)
It includes property taxes, income taxes, social security contributions, taxes on goods and services and ''other'' which I cba to check what it is. So, yeah, it does include VAT.
So your telling me we pay 33% in tax.... just no, doing the basic maths just says.
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FakeNewsEditor
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#88
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#88
(Original post by paul514)
So your telling me we pay 33% in tax.... just no, doing the basic maths just says.
OECD says that's the revenue the government gets from taxation, yes. 33% of GDP. This includes VAT, import duties, and so forth.

Who's ''we''? this is an average figure. It's like me sayin' the average height in the UK is 5'9'' and u askin' me whether ''we'' are 5'9''.
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nulli tertius
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#89
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#89
(Original post by paul514)
So your telling me we pay 33% in tax.... just no, doing the basic maths just says.
GDP is basically a turnover figure for the economy.

What basic maths shows the Government can’t be taking one third of the economy’s turnover?

Your personal income has little to do with the turnover of the economy or indeed even your personal turnover.

What is the value of the coffee that one minimum wage barrista makes in a year? A sum equal to one third of that coffee ends up with Government in taxes. That is what the stats are saying.
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paul514
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#90
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#90
(Original post by FakeNewsEditor)
OECD says that's the revenue the government gets from taxation, yes. 33% of GDP. This includes VAT, import duties, and so forth.

Who's ''we''? this is an average figure. It's like me sayin' the average height in the UK is 5'9'' and u askin' me whether ''we'' are 5'9''.
A third of GDP may end up as tax however that isn’t people’s personal tax that they end up paying.

GDP includes loads of cooked up numbers such as housing. The cost of the house isn’t included as GDP if it isn’t new but when you take a mortgage out on it that value is for example. What is the tax take on that..... and so on.

The simple maths I am talking about as a high tax country is what an individual pays for.
Their income and consumption tax’s.
Last edited by paul514; 2 weeks ago
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Fullofsurprises
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#91
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#91
(Original post by paul514)
The simple maths I am talking about as a high tax country is what an individual pays for.
Their income and consumption tax’s.
I know what you mean, but realistically you have to factor in things like local and regional taxes and also the taxes that business pays, after all, a lot of people are self-employed or work for small businesses with commissions and bonuses that get reduced the more tax the business has to fork out. It's not as clear-cut as just income tax + sales tax, which is why economists talk about taxes as a percentage of national income, or GDP, or similar.
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paul514
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#92
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#92
(Original post by Fullofsurprises)
I know what you mean, but realistically you have to factor in things like local and regional taxes and also the taxes that business pays, after all, a lot of people are self-employed or work for small businesses with commissions and bonuses that get reduced the more tax the business has to fork out. It's not as clear-cut as just income tax + sales tax, which is why economists talk about taxes as a percentage of national income, or GDP, or similar.
Yes but it goes to the heart of what matters to a person is it GDP or what they have in their pocket
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ColinDent
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#93
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#93
I note that today the odds on a conservative overall majority have shortened to 4/7 and they are now at 1/16 to win most seats, which you can see in post #84 a week ago was at 2/11.
Did something happen?? 🤔
Last edited by ColinDent; 1 week ago
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Rakas21
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#94
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#94
(Original post by ColinDent)
I note that today the odds on a conservative overall majority have shortened to 4/7 and they are now at 1/16 to win most seats, which you can see in post #84 a week ago was at 2/11.
Did something happen?? 🤔
Polling has ticked upwards.
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ColinDent
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#95
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#95
(Original post by Rakas21)
Polling has ticked upwards.
I know 😉, I agree with what you have said about the likely outcome going on polls at the moment, Labour need to close the gap significantly if they are to stand any chance of becoming the leaders of a remain alliance as, realistically, the Tories only need to gain 10 seats to have the working majority required in parliament due to the fact that each and every Tory MP will be on board with regards a deal.
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Rakas21
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#96
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#96
(Original post by ColinDent)
I know 😉, I agree with what you have said about the likely outcome going on polls at the moment, Labour need to close the gap significantly if they are to stand any chance of becoming the leaders of a remain alliance as, realistically, the Tories only need to gain 10 seats to have the working majority required in parliament due to the fact that each and every Tory MP will be on board with regards a deal.
Yeah, i'm going for 327-369 seats at the moment with the highest confidence around the 340 mark. I expect that Con-Lab might gain another 1-2% over the week from the smaller parties before we get to next week which is the start of the manifesto releases and debates (the only real threats to a Tory majority as things stand).
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ColinDent
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#97
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#97
(Original post by Rakas21)
Yeah, i'm going for 327-369 seats at the moment with the highest confidence around the 340 mark. I expect that Con-Lab might gain another 1-2% over the week from the smaller parties before we get to next week which is the start of the manifesto releases and debates (the only real threats to a Tory majority as things stand).
Surely Mr Johnson saw what happened with the last manifesto and the whole inheritance tax debacle and won't make the same mistake.
This is another thing that hopefully will not go Mr Corbyn's way this time and will help ultimately in the delivery of brexit.
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Rakas21
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#98
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#98
(Original post by ColinDent)
Surely Mr Johnson saw what happened with the last manifesto and the whole inheritance tax debacle and won't make the same mistake.
This is another thing that hopefully will not go Mr Corbyn's way this time and will help ultimately in the delivery of brexit.
Agreed. A lot of the optimistic left forget that his cheering crowds only got him to 35%, it was May who threw him the other 5%. How different would that 47-35 result have been (that's how high we were averaging before the manifesto release).
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Fullofsurprises
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#99
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#99
(Original post by Rakas21)
Agreed. A lot of the optimistic left forget that his cheering crowds only got him to 35%, it was May who threw him the other 5%. How different would that 47-35 result have been (that's how high we were averaging before the manifesto release).
The stupidest thing the May government did by far was the social care charge debacle, but on the other hand, Labour had no credible policy in the same area. We desperately need cross-party consensus on social care and it, along with the NHS, should be taken out of politics and made national priorities, but they won't be with a right wing press instantly crowing about tax increases. The UK is a low tax country with poor public services and looks like being stuck that way under the Tories going forwards. People think that's what they want until it's their turn to have a relative getting old and infirm, or themselves.
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Rakas21
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#100
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#100
(Original post by Fullofsurprises)
The stupidest thing the May government did by far was the social care charge debacle, but on the other hand, Labour had no credible policy in the same area. We desperately need cross-party consensus on social care and it, along with the NHS, should be taken out of politics and made national priorities, but they won't be with a right wing press instantly crowing about tax increases. The UK is a low tax country with poor public services and looks like being stuck that way under the Tories going forwards. People think that's what they want until it's their turn to have a relative getting old and infirm, or themselves.
Really there are only 3 options for social care..

1) Do what the Dilmot report actually suggested and have people take out insurance while working so that they have the money when its needed

2) The May idea which basically a deferred inheritence tax

3) Nationalise it in effect and fund like the NHS - Nobody really wants this outside the hard left because most politicians see what a trap that could be when they look at the NHS sucking up ever higher funds.

- The social insurance model is the one i would prefer personally. Its how most of Europe funds health and based on outcomes, is superior to our money throwing central model.
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