The US Midterm Elections Thread 🇺🇸

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JMR2020.
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Hello, all those interested in international politics!
Here is a guide to the US midterm elections, which will be taking place on the 6th November.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/...know-explained

All House of Representatives will be up for election as well as 35 of the 100 senate seats.

The Democrats are looking to make gains in both chambers and potentially win the House of Representatives, but will the Republicans be able to hold on? This election could be crucial for the rest of Trump’s presidency. If the Democrats win the House they could even start impeachment proceedings (although unlikely to pass by the Senate). Regardless, it would certainly make passing legislation much more difficult for him.

What are your thoughts?
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Doones
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Don't be surprised if Trump surprises us...
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JMR2020.
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(Original post by Doonesbury)
Don't be surprised if Trump surprises us...
Let’s hope the surprise is that he stands down as President.
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fallen_acorns
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looking like the chance of a great night for the democrats is slipping.

The commentators I listen to are still expecting them to make gains in the house. If they don't take control, it will be a disaster for them.

The senate though seems to be swinging in the Republicans favor, with some actually talking about the party making gains, rather than the previously expected losses.

-- obviously though anything could happen in the last week, and I wouldn't be surprised at all to see a great night for the democrats. But equally the major current events are playing right into the hands of the republicans at the movement. The supreme court nomination gave them a huge and unexpected boost - and now the migrant caravan is really pulling a lot of their base into action.

My guess is a good night for the democrats, but not as good as it looked a few months back.
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nulli tertius
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How can you pack the Supreme Court when the Constitution gives the power of appointment to the President? You can create seats but you can't make Trump fill them and any purported legislative attempt to appoint to those seats would be unconstitutional.

The same issue would arise if Congress wanted Gorsuch or Kavanaugh on other courts. It would be for Trump to appoint them because they would be "
all other Officers of the United States, whose Appointments are not herein otherwise provided for".

Furthermore why do you think appointing Gorsuch and Kavanaugh to other courts would vacate their Supreme Court seats? Jay was appointed envoy extraordinary to Great Britain, Jackson was appointed prosecutor to the International Military Tribunal and neither of them lost their seats. Why should being appointed to another judicial post deprive them of their Supreme Court appointment?
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nulli tertius
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Because I only have the reference for your post
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Rakas21
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(Original post by JMR2018)
Hello, all those interested in international politics!
Here is a guide to the US midterm elections, which will be taking place on the 6th November.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/...know-explained

All House of Representatives will be up for election as well as 35 of the 100 senate seats.

The Democrats are looking to make gains in both chambers and potentially win the House of Representatives, but will the Republicans be able to hold on? This election could be crucial for the rest of Trump’s presidency. If the Democrats win the House they could even start impeachment proceedings (although unlikely to pass by the Senate). Regardless, it would certainly make passing legislation much more difficult for him.

What are your thoughts?
Current polling so far as i am aware suggests that the Democrats will gain the House but that the Republicans will hold or gain in the senate.

Here's the cracker for the anti-Trump brigade though... whenever an incumbent has made senate gains at the mid-terms since WW2, they have gone on to win a second term.
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Dsk10911
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It seems like the Democrats will likely make gains in the House, even potential for a majority.

The Democrats have a lot more safe seats than the Republicans so I doubt that the Republicans will make any significant gains to increase their majority.

From the diagram attached: the Republicans have a lot more seats, which are at risk.

In the Senate a lot more Democratic seats are up for contesting in the midterms. There isnt any significant potential for the Democrats to make a large majority, but the potential for a small majority exists.

Predictions:
Democrats will take control of the House with 225 seats.

Democrats will also take control of the Senate by controlling a total of 51 seats.

This year the Democrats have a lot more funding than the Republicans, however under the Trump administration the US economy is at one of its best points in history, in terms of Unemployment.
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LeapingLucy
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The races I'm most interested in are:

- Florida governor, because I really like the Democrat candidate Andrew Gillum and because the Republican he's running against, Ron de Santis, is like Trump on steroids. Seriously, if you haven't seen this campaign ad he made, watch it. It's wild: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z1YP_zZJFXs
Gillum has the lead in the recent polls, but it's tight - anywhere between +1 and +5

- Texas senate - because Beto O'Rourke is awesome and how amazing would it be if Cruz lost! Although it's less likely than Gillum winning.

- California's congressional races - because I spent some time there over the summer campaigning for Democratic candidates. I think that some of the traditional GOP seats could turn blue this time round, like CA-45.
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nulli tertius
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Stuart v Laird is about abolishing a judge by abolishing his court
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Dsk10911
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(Original post by LeapingLucy)
The races I'm most interested in are:

- Florida governor, because I really like the Democrat candidate Andrew Gillum and because the Republican he's running against, Ron de Santis, is like Trump on steroids. Seriously, if you haven't seen this campaign ad he made, watch it. It's wild: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z1YP_zZJFXs
Gillum has the lead in the recent polls, but it's tight - anywhere between +1 and +5

- Texas senate - because Beto O'Rourke is awesome and how amazing would it be if Cruz lost! Although it's less likely than Gillum winning.

- California's congressional races - because I spent some time there over the summer campaigning for Democratic candidates. I think that some of the traditional GOP seats could turn blue this time round, like CA-45.
oh wow! How did you get the opportunity to campaign in California? Did you get paid or get a bursary for costs anything, it must be expensive to go from London to CA? (Sorry if it seems like a stupid question, I have never been involved with any sort of campaigning but I am interested)
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abravenewworld
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I grew up in California and am currently finishing my undergrad in Indiana. I tried to change my voter registration to where I live in Indiana, but the elections commission rejected my application! I am totally eligible. My gut says voter suppression.

Either way, it will be a very interesting Midterm. I hope there will be more Democratic votes in Indiana.
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LeapingLucy
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(Original post by Dsk10911)
oh wow! How did you get the opportunity to campaign in California? Did you get paid or get a bursary for costs anything, it must be expensive to go from London to CA? (Sorry if it seems like a stupid question, I have never been involved with any sort of campaigning but I am interested)
I'll PM you :-)
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SHallowvale
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I have absolutely zero faith that the midterms will improve the political situation in the US. Lost pretty much any hope of that when Trump was elected.

Not only is their electoral system awful but the electorate itself is just... something else.
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nulli tertius
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Thank you. I wasn’t able to access the article earlier but I have now read it.
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anarchism101
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(Original post by Rakas21)

Here's the cracker for the anti-Trump brigade though... whenever an incumbent has made senate gains at the mid-terms since WW2, they have gone on to win a second term.
That's only a sample size of two, though - Nixon and Bush II are the only post-WW2 Presidents to have both gained seats at their first midterms and then won re-election (and neither are really examples I expect Trump would aspire to follow) Everyone else either got re-elected despite a midterm Senate setback, or didn't manage a second term.
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JMR2020.
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Anyone staying up to watch the results tomorrow?
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MrDystopia
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(Original post by JMR2018)
Anyone staying up to watch the results tomorrow?
Wish I could, but I have an 8am wake up =_=

Shall be eagerly keeping up with results though. The campaign has been a dreadful one so it’s going to be interesting to see what the outcome is.
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Doones
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(Original post by JMR2018)
Anyone staying up to watch the results tomorrow?
What time are they expected to start rolling in (GMT...)?
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JMR2020.
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(Original post by Doonesbury)
What time are they expected to start rolling in (GMT...)?
Around midnight I think.
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