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Will the U.K. get a deal before Christmas

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Original post by ByEeek
I can't help but feel that getting a deal is kind of irrelevant. The cabinet have to agree on any deal May brings back before it then goes to parliament. Given the simple fact that there is no single deal that will satisfy all, most or even some, it is hard to see how anyone will be prepared to agree on anything.

Whilst there will be plenty of MPs which vote against the deal, there's no way in hell that it won't be passed through the Commons. A majority will vote in favour, even if they don't agree with what's on offer because at least it's better than not getting a deal at all.
Reply 21
Original post by Waterbottle50
Whilst there will be plenty of MPs which vote against the deal, there's no way in hell that it won't be passed through the Commons. A majority will vote in favour, even if they don't agree with what's on offer because at least it's better than not getting a deal at all.


Labour MPs won't vote for the deal unless it meets Keir Starmer's six tests. It won't. May has a very small majority. It's not unreasonable to think that a fair few Tory MPs will vote against the deal too. Then it's either a new referendum or a general election.

No deal would be disastrous for Northern Ireland. Actually just about any deal other than the softest of soft Brexits would be disastrous for Northern Ireland. I've lost too many members of my family to the troubles to be able to see a return to that.
Original post by akbar0123
“It’ll all be over before Christmas”


Very funny... just what they said about WWI. 4 yrs later and 60 million dead.
Original post by ByEeek
Could you explain why a hard Brexit is a good thing? Yes, I understand that we get our sovereignty back and the opportunity in 10+ years to finally get deals with large trading countries like Ghana, but I can't see anything positive about it. Why are people still calling for something just about everyone with any form of vested interest in the EU is against. Why is a catastrophe a good thing?


Because it was the will of the mindless. Seems we must all bow down to them.
Original post by katf
Labour MPs won't vote for the deal unless it meets Keir Starmer's six tests. It won't. May has a very small majority. It's not unreasonable to think that a fair few Tory MPs will vote against the deal too. Then it's either a new referendum or a general election.

No deal would be disastrous for Northern Ireland. Actually just about any deal other than the softest of soft Brexits would be disastrous for Northern Ireland. I've lost too many members of my family to the troubles to be able to see a return to that.

No possible deal can meet all six of these tests. (Quoted below in the spoiler block for the reader's convenience.)
Labour MPs know this and won't blindly vote for a no-deal Brexit because the deal doesn't meet a set of (admittedly admirable) arbitrary "tests".

Spoiler

Original post by Rakas21
Well to be fair i tend to disagree with that and back the ons and obr. I'm a Brexiteer but there's relatively clear evidence that it has hit GDP by 0.5-1% for the last two years based on the fall in business investment since the referendum and PMI data from the manufacturing sector in the midst of no significant change to global growth as yet. We must remain objective even as Brexit men.

Equally though this deal (not that i especially approve of it) should unlock said investment and i'd look for both sterling appreciation and improved economic growth through 2019.

Fair enough, it's a matter of opinion and even if they are correct 0.5-1% is not that much, I personally would still question that.
It's because we have numpties running the country mate.

If you wanna see the main culprit click below

Spoiler

Reply 27
Parliamentarians should vote Mrs May's deal down. This will require them to engage in a bit of long-term thinking.

If the deal goes through, we'll be in virtually the same situation in two years time. A 21-month transition period is nowhere near enough time to negotiate a trade deal, and there are no deals that could ever be negotiated which the UK Government hasn't already rejected (Norway, Ukraine, Canada/Korea, Turkey).

Thus, the UK will be in a permanent customs union with regulatory checks on goods passing between Britain and Northern Ireland, unable to sign our own free trade deals and out of the biggest free trade deal we've ever been part of (the Single Market).

Or, if we manage to get out of that, we'll have paid a £39 billion divorce bill without any trade agreement whatsoever with the European Union, plus a hard border on Ireland would be reimposed.

In other words, we'll have a choice between a permanent customs union (the worst of all worlds according to many) or a no-deal Brexit.

MPs should dare Mrs May to be the Prime Minister responsible for a no-deal Brexit. It's her choice, because there are options on the table that would likely command the support of the majority of the House of Commons, including the Norway/EEA option, which has been on the table from the very beginning of the negotiations.
Original post by random_matt
Sovereignty is enough for plenty of people.

Best we leave NATO and the UN too, then.
Original post by Rakas21
Well to be fair i tend to disagree with that and back the ons and obr. I'm a Brexiteer but there's relatively clear evidence that it has hit GDP by 0.5-1% for the last two years based on the fall in business investment since the referendum and PMI data from the manufacturing sector in the midst of no significant change to global growth as yet. We must remain objective even as Brexit men.

Equally though this deal (not that i especially approve of it) should unlock said investment and i'd look for both sterling appreciation and improved economic growth through 2019.


There's zero evidence of Brexit impacting on UK growth, given that UK has grown largely in tandem with developed economies since the vote. There has indeed been a slowdown since 2016, however one must take that in context and realise that the UK before the referendum was growing at a technical boom. A slowdown would have occurred organically irrespective of what happened politically.

The UK has been growing faster than other Western European countries since 2010 when indexed back, so any minor slowdown since then would be a case of the rest catching up. However, at the current moment the UK is back on top of the G7 for growth because Germany is about to enter a recession (contracted -0.2% according to today's figures) and France and Italy are back to the doldrums.

Add to that the highest wage growth since 2008, and it's clear that consumers can only be upbeat and this will translate to consumer spending in the neart future. Business investment is simply not that important to the economy as it was before Thatcher, especially since most modern 'investment' is not into tangible assets but into M&A, restructuring, patents and investment vehicles for tax avoidance, while most foreign investment is a form of asset protection for nationals of politically and financially unstable countries like Russia and China investing into non-productive assets like property.

There's no clear link between FDI and GDP growth since 2008.
https://d3fy651gv2fhd3.cloudfront.net/charts/[email protected]?s=unitedkinfordirinv&v=201809291016y&d1=20080101&d2=20181231&type=column
https://d3fy651gv2fhd3.cloudfront.net/charts/[email protected]?s=ukgrybzy&v=201811090952y&d1=20080101&d2=20181231&type=column
(edited 5 years ago)
Even if they don’t at all, not just until Christmas, I believe the U.K. is prepared to bounce back from a no deal Brexit
A NO deal is better as the draft seems like it's keeping us IN against the result of 2016 😡
Original post by random_matt
Sovereignty is enough for plenty of people.


Sadly though, sovereignty doesn't put food on the table. I don't see very many businesses - you know - the ones that employ people lining up to say we need more sovereignty. And even with sovereignty we are still bound by deals, conventions and international laws. Always have been. Always will be.
Original post by random_matt
Join politics then, but I promise you this, the fudged crap May has now is worse than a no deal.


Well it kind of isn't. A no deal means we go from everything one day to nothing the next day. So if you are a company like I don't know - say Tesco, that orders tomatoes that come by truck from Spain. Right now, they simply ring up the farm in Spain, ask for some tomatoes and a chap drives them from Spain over the channel to the warehouse. The day after Brexit, no one knows if that is possible or not. Chances are not. So no tomatoes.... or veg or meat or drugs or car parts are plane parts or white goods or cars or just about everything else we order from Europe. So just exactly is plunging our economy into total uncertainty a good thing?
No because it won’t pass a parliamentary vote
(edited 5 years ago)

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