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Stick to the deal, second referendum or no Brexit? watch

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    (Original post by jason0597)
    No deal would involve building a hard border between Ireland and Northern Ireland, otherwise you'd be violating international law (the WTO rules specifically]
    Which rules are you talking about specifically? Wouldn't it be a country's sovereign decision to not police its own border?

    Off the top of my head, there's the Vatican City not having a hard border with Italy. There's no hard borders between Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador. No hard border between Mexico and Guatemala. No hard borders and Attentions, Brazil. The borders between the two and Paraguay are incredibly soft. No hard borders between Israel and West Bank Palestine.
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    (Original post by XxAb)
    Intrigued to see people’s opinions as it is such a mix debate:
    Remain with the deal, second referendum or no deal?
    Only one of those is an option.

    Mays deal, no deal, new leader then super Canada deal, EEA membership.

    Remaining and second referendums will not happen
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    (Original post by jason0597)
    Did you even read my original post?
    Yep, just don't think it will be as bad as you and others Europhiles like to paint it
    No deal would be my choice of the 3, some people look at things differently to you, deal with it.
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    How enthusiastic the EU is for us to take this deal - makes me far more skeptical of the deal.

    ---

    Also I can't tell if mogg+co are genuises or lucky idiots.

    The whole - not going for a confidence vote now - looks like it may end up being a brilliant move. But Who knows if they planned it that way? or if they just got lucky.

    Its looking like:

    Vote of confidence before the deal is voted on in parliment = may wins vote, and then can't be challenged for another year.. after she looses the vote in parliment.
    Vote of confidence after the deal is voted on in parliment = as long as she looses the vote in parliment, she looses the challenge to her leadership.

    If you are confident that she won't get the deal through parliment, then its stupid to call a leadership vote now.

    But did they realise that? or did they just fail to get the number of letters and may end up getting lucky?

    I am leaning towards the second option.
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    (Original post by fallen_acorns)
    How enthusiastic the EU is for us to take this deal - makes me far more skeptical of the deal.

    ---

    Also I can't tell if mogg+co are genuises or lucky idiots.

    The whole - not going for a confidence vote now - looks like it may end up being a brilliant move. But Who knows if they planned it that way? or if they just got lucky.

    Its looking like:

    Vote of confidence before the deal is voted on in parliment = may wins vote, and then can't be challenged for another year.. after she looses the vote in parliment.
    Vote of confidence after the deal is voted on in parliment = as long as she looses the vote in parliment, she looses the challenge to her leadership.

    If you are confident that she won't get the deal through parliment, then its stupid to call a leadership vote now.

    But did they realise that? or did they just fail to get the number of letters and may end up getting lucky?

    I am leaning towards the second option.
    The whole thing was a show to try and get some changes, they were faced down by May so they don’t tip the balance for the letters until after she loses as that is there real chance.

    It’s been their plan all along if this sort of deal was presented
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    (Original post by ColinDent)
    Yep, just don't think it will be as bad as you and others Europhiles like to paint it
    No deal would be my choice of the 3, some people look at things differently to you, deal with it.
    I don't understand how I've overestimated some of the things that may happen. If you are claiming that I'm painting it to be worse than it is, then I ask of you to show me where exactly I've done that. Did I use some dodgy statistics? Did I miss out on something? Did I lie about something? Please tell me, otherwise you'd be claiming that I'm doing something wrong and you won't be able to say why.
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    (Original post by Duncan2012)
    If the deal gets rejected by Parliament, then no deal is perfectly fine. We walk away, put party politics aside and do what's in the interest of the UK. There's nothing that says we must have a deal. Would it be difficult? Yes. Would there be short-term disruption? Of course. But in the long run we would be fine. History isn't judged on weeks or months.
    I love the way you talk about short term disruption. Were the two world wars examples of "short term" disruption that didn't have much impact in the long run?

    Just how many years of unemployment are you prepared to take on for the great and good of the country?
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    (Original post by ByEeek)
    I love the way you talk about short term disruption. Were the two world wars examples of "short term" disruption that didn't have much impact in the long run?

    Just how many years of unemployment are you prepared to take on for the great and good of the country?
    Why so doom and gloom? If you're able to tell me what unemployment you seem so certain is going to happen I might be prepared to answer.

    As for 'short-term' disruption - we're talking about the time it takes to put in place sufficient bilateral/reciprocal arrangements. The same things which are going to happen during the transition period in any case. Totally doable if there's political will.

    Brexit is happening. Get used to it.
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    Second referendum all the way please!!
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    (Original post by Duncan2012)
    Why so doom and gloom? If you're able to tell me what unemployment you seem so certain is going to happen I might be prepared to answer.

    As for 'short-term' disruption - we're talking about the time it takes to put in place sufficient bilateral/reciprocal arrangements. The same things which are going to happen during the transition period in any case. Totally doable if there's political will.

    Brexit is happening. Get used to it.
    Well when the vote was announced, the pound fell significantly and hasn't really recovered. Good for exporters you say - yes. However, importers like supermarkets have so far shouldered the loss. Any further decay in the pound will be passed onto the consumer. Add to that uncertainty in the UK as an economy and I would be amazed if we don't see a recession. We are after all, in bull territory and what goes up must come down. Brexit is the perfect trigger. And when the economy dives, unemployment goes up and with it government cuts and expenditure freezes which add to the cycle.

    Like you say - on a grand scale - all short term adjustment. But whimsical phrases spoken by millionaire politicians, well heeled economists and students living under that roof of mum and dad are all well and good. It is the little man that bears the brunt. So how long are you prepared to be unemployed for with the great and good of our country in mind?
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    (Original post by ByEeek)
    Well when the vote was announced, the pound fell significantly and hasn't really recovered. Good for exporters you say - yes. However, importers like supermarkets have so far shouldered the loss. Any further decay in the pound will be passed onto the consumer. Add to that uncertainty in the UK as an economy and I would be amazed if we don't see a recession. We are after all, in bull territory and what goes up must come down. Brexit is the perfect trigger. And when the economy dives, unemployment goes up and with it government cuts and expenditure freezes which add to the cycle.

    Like you say - on a grand scale - all short term adjustment. But whimsical phrases spoken by millionaire politicians, well heeled economists and students living under that roof of mum and dad are all well and good. It is the little man that bears the brunt. So how long are you prepared to be unemployed for with the great and good of our country in mind?
    Yes, there's uncertainty. No denying that. And the FTSE100 is about 14% higher today than after the vote. So it's not all doom and gloom. Will there be a recession? Perhaps. But recessions happen 'naturally' anyway. And we'll get through it.

    I was working in oil and gas in Aberdeen when the oil price plummeted and I found myself unemployed. In comparison to that, I'm not concerned about a post-Brexit recession. I would rather it didn't happen, but if it does, it does. Fortunately I'm not a politician who needs to keep voters happy.
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    (Original post by jason0597)
    I don't understand how I've overestimated some of the things that may happen. If you are claiming that I'm painting it to be worse than it is, then I ask of you to show me where exactly I've done that. Did I use some dodgy statistics? Did I miss out on something? Did I lie about something? Please tell me, otherwise you'd be claiming that I'm doing something wrong and you won't be able to say why.
    Just see it differently to you, a no deal will force everyone to look at things a whole lot more sensibly and therefore reach a much better deal.
    The EU are playing hardball because they can due to our parliaments division ( mainly for remain) on this, a no deal will hit them extremely hard, more so than they will have people believe, so they would be way more forthcoming if the s**t really were to hit the fan.
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    (Original post by ColinDent)
    a no deal will force everyone to look at things a whole lot more sensibly and therefore reach a much better deal.
    No deal means there is absolutely no deal, so I don't understand why you're talking about reaching "a much better deal" if there is no deal to begin with. Are you referring to what happens after the UK leaves the EU? If so, what time frame are we talking about?
    The EU are playing hardball because they can due to our parliaments division ( mainly for remain) on this, a no deal will hit them extremely hard, more so than they will have people believe, so they would be way more forthcoming if the s**t really were to hit the fan.
    You say that no-deal will hit the EU really hard. What makes you say this? What does the EU have to lose exactly?
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    (Original post by jason0597)
    You say that no-deal will hit the EU really hard. What makes you say this? What does the EU have to lose exactly?
    Agreed. They are still in their nice warm club house dictating the terms. We are simply left floating out at sea with a few depleted fish stocks. Our businesses can choose where to go.

    I suppose the one thing we do have is excellent law and order but in a fast developing world, it wouldn't take much to entice the businesses that take comfort in our laws to decide to move elsewhere.
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    (Original post by ByEeek)
    Agreed. They are still in their nice warm club house dictating the terms.
    Are you referring to how there seem to be no negotiations happening? I honestly don't know what the UK was expecting. You got on one hand a union of 27 countries looking to protect the union (while also being a part of the second biggest economy on the planet), while on the other hand you got one country that is leaving and is expecting to get a better deal than the one they have at the moment. I honestly don't see how this is possible, and I don't believe this is due to "bullying", it's simply the way it is.
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    (Original post by jason0597)
    Are you referring to how there seem to be no negotiations happening? I honestly don't know what the UK was expecting. You got on one hand a union of 27 countries looking to protect the union (while also being a part of the second biggest economy on the planet), while on the other hand you got one country that is leaving and is expecting to get a better deal than the one they have at the moment. I honestly don't see how this is possible, and I don't believe this is due to "bullying", it's simply the way it is.
    True. But we are not in a sticky situation because we have two sides where one wants to remain and one wishes to leave. The deal is a compromise of the two and satisfies neither. The risk is we get no deal which satisfies only a minority almost certainly shafts the majority of the country. If the pound's value drops we could see the price of fuel and food rise by double digits and that it a terrifying prospect even if it is only for a few weeks.
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    (Original post by jason0597)
    No deal means there is absolutely no deal, so I don't understand why you're talking about reaching "a much better deal" if there is no deal to begin with. Are you referring to what happens after the UK leaves the EU? If so, what time frame are we talking about?

    You say that no-deal will hit the EU really hard. What makes you say this? What does the EU have to lose exactly?
    I'm talking about a pretty quick timeframe once all the posturing is over, within a year or two max.
    And the EU stands to lose a great deal, France and Germany may well be able to take the initial hit but once they have to start propping up Spain, Portugal, Ireland et al it will be a very different story, and they will have to do that.
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    (Original post by ColinDent)
    I'm talking about a pretty quick timeframe once all the posturing is over, within a year or two max.
    And how do you know this? Can you perhaps cite anything that backs this claim up?
    And the EU stands to lose a great deal, France and Germany may well be able to take the initial hit but once they have to start propping up Spain, Portugal, Ireland et al it will be a very different story, and they will have to do that.
    Are those countries being propped up? First time I've heard of this. Even Greece got off its last bailout a couple of months ago, so how are these countries being propped up?
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    (Original post by jason0597)
    And how do you know this? Can you perhaps cite anything that backs this claim up?

    Are those countries being propped up? First time I've heard of this. Even Greece got off its last bailout a couple of months ago, so how are these countries being propped up?
    First part, common sense.
    Second they're not at the moment, but just how stable are their economies? Ireland's is intrinsically linked to ours, Spain, Portugal and Greece rely heavily on tourism so how would you see that going after brexit? If just one of those fails then it would be a huge problem for the EU, and i didn't even mention Italy.
    When it comes to finance the EU most certainly do not hold the upper hand.
    So you tell me how well you feel each individual country will fare with a huge drop in GDP.
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    (Original post by ColinDent)
    First part, common sense.
    No I'm afraid you're going to need something better than this. Or I could simply apply Hitchen's razor and be done with this argument in a jiffy.
    Second they're not at the moment, but just how stable are their economies? Ireland's is intrinsically linked to ours, Spain, Portugal and Greece rely heavily on tourism so how would you see that going after brexit?
    Why does the UK leaving the EU affect the tourism in other EU member states?
    If just one of those fails then it would be a huge problem for the EU, and i didn't even mention Italy.
    When it comes to finance the EU most certainly do not hold the upper hand.
    So you tell me how well you feel each individual country will fare with a huge drop in GDP.
    I think you're assuming that the UK will pay more EU bailouts, when it has been agreed that the UK will not pay any bailouts in the future for Eurozone countries.
 
 
 
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