Vote for No Deal to reduce house prices by a third Watch

ThomH97
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I'm not sure Mark Carney has ever really known what he's on about, but he is in uncharted territory. Anyway, he's said that no deal could reduce the UK economy by 8% in the short term, the pound fall by a quarter and house prices fall by a third. The first point is bad, the second is brilliant for exporting, and the third would be absolutely fantastic.
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Andrew97
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The Bank of England is meant to be neutral. Clearly Mr Carney does not agree.
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RogerOxon
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(Original post by ThomH97)
I'm not sure Mark Carney has ever really known what he's on about, but he is in uncharted territory. Anyway, he's said that no deal could reduce the UK economy by 8% in the short term, the pound fall by a quarter and house prices fall by a third. The first point is bad, the second is brilliant for exporting, and the third would be absolutely fantastic.
Be aware that this is a scenario, not a forecast, and I doubt was put together by the governor himself.

House prices falling doesn't help with supply, it just allows those that still have jobs a better chance of buying. Those that lose their jobs could also lose their homes - not very nice.

How many voters knew the consequences of voting leave? Better than the BoE?
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RogerOxon
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(Original post by Andrew97)
The Bank of England is meant to be neutral. Clearly Mr Carney does not agree.
What evidence do you have that they aren't?
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Andrew97
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(Original post by RogerOxon)
What evidence do you have that they aren't?
Usually in business you work out a worst case scenario, a best case scenario and somewhere in the middle.
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RogerOxon
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(Original post by Andrew97)
Usually in business you work out a worst case scenario, a best case scenario and somewhere in the middle.
You obviously didn't read the article.
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Andrew97
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(Original post by RogerOxon)
You obviously didn't read the article.
I only heard the report on the radio.

Regardless, the article states that “if we get no trade deals by 2022” what if we get trade deals with Countrty X, Y and Z?

Furthermore. It’s rather meaningless without any probabilites.
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RogerOxon
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(Original post by Andrew97)
I only heard the report on the radio.

Regardless, the article states that “if we get no trade deals by 2022” what if we get trade deals with Countrty X, Y and Z?

Furthermore. It’s rather meaningless without any probabilites.
Read it again.

The BoE does economic modelling, not political.
Last edited by RogerOxon; 1 year ago
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HighOnGoofballs
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House prices falling due to a reason such as Brexit would mean that interest rates would go through the roof, leaving potential house-buyers in a worse of position, not better. The Net Price is only one component of the affordability of houses.
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paul514
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(Original post by ThomH97)
I'm not sure Mark Carney has ever really known what he's on about, but he is in uncharted territory. Anyway, he's said that no deal could reduce the UK economy by 8% in the short term, the pound fall by a quarter and house prices fall by a third. The first point is bad, the second is brilliant for exporting, and the third would be absolutely fantastic.
It was complete none sense as usual with any long term forecast and in particular ones to do with brexit.

Anyone who wants a row over that I encourage you to watch Andrew Neil on Wednesdays daily politics to see why
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Dez
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(Original post by HighOnGoofballs)
House prices falling due to a reason such as Brexit would mean that interest rates would go through the roof, leaving potential house-buyers in a worse of position, not better. The Net Price is only one component of the affordability of houses.
This. If house prices fell by a third it would be an unmitigated disaster for the UK. It astounds me when Brexiteers can spin stuff like this to be a good thing. Literally calling for an economic meltdown in the name of ideology and/or seeing fewer brown people.
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paul514
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(Original post by Dez)
This. If house prices fell by a third it would be an unmitigated disaster for the UK. It astounds me when Brexiteers can spin stuff like this to be a good thing. Literally calling for an economic meltdown in the name of ideology and/or seeing fewer brown people.
Yea, but it can’t happen
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Dez
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(Original post by paul514)
Yea, but it can’t happen
It would be electoral suicide if the Tory party let house prices drop, so yeah, it's pretty unlikely. I hope.
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paul514
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(Original post by Dez)
It would be electoral suicide if the Tory party let house prices drop, so yeah, it's pretty unlikely. I hope.
Laws of supply and demand say it can’t happen.
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Dez
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(Original post by paul514)
Laws of supply and demand say it can’t happen.
That's a bit of an oversimplification, to put it mildly. Maybe you should look at what happened to the US housing market after the subprime mortgage debacle.
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BFG9000
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such a drop would just kill all banks, that would kill all small and medium companies... brilliant
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DrMikeHuntHertz
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The end is nigh, remoaners...

https://i.imgur.com/exCWjbE.png
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paul514
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(Original post by Dez)
That's a bit of an oversimplification, to put it mildly. Maybe you should look at what happened to the US housing market after the subprime mortgage debacle.
I don’t need to look I know what happened there.

We don’t have their stupid loan book, they didn’t have a housing shortage and their loan book is what kicked off a massive drop in prices.
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paul514
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(Original post by BFG9000)
such a drop would just kill all banks, that would kill all small and medium companies... brilliant
It would indeed ‘kill’ the banks and not just here either it would be 2008 all over again elsewhere too
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adam277
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(Original post by Andrew97)
The Bank of England is meant to be neutral. Clearly Mr Carney does not agree.
Agreed.
But for people who think he is doing this as some dire financial warning that we should take heed of your wrong. The guy has been bashing Brexit for 2 years now.
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