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How accurate is the ucas offer calculator

So I’m confused because I am predicted BBC and I used the ucas offer calculator for a university that wanted a BCC and it told me my likelihood of receiving an offer is only around 70%....

I then calculated my likelihood for a university that wanted BBB and my likelihood of getting an offer from them was 90%????

I’m just super confused as to how this system works
Different universities have different offer rates for different courses. Some courses make offers to almost everyone who applies, but they only set offers at the published level and are extremely strict in sticking to those - if you fail to get those grades, you won't get in. Others make fewer offers but are more flexible for people who miss their grades by one or two grades.

Overall they base it on data released by universities, and different universities have different methods to calculate their expected "yield" or conversion rate of offers to acceptances - given that not everyone that applies to a university and gets an offer will take that offer up (they might only list it as their insurance, or fail to achieve their grades later, or go through adjustment or clearing, etc, etc). As such, the data from each university might be based on a different methodology, but they're all collated together by UCAS, so invariably there will be some discrepancies - it's just a rough indication really.
(edited 5 years ago)
Maybe it's to do with one uni getting more applicants for your course than the other uni?

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