The end of May in December? Watch

Davij038
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https://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-a8663386.html


If Theresa mays deal is rejected by parliament, as it is most likely to do so, labour have strongly hinted they will attempt to bring down the government. Obviously this requires the suppprt if Tory rebel’s who have to choose between a hopelessly bad deal with the EU or de facto helping Corbyn become PM.

This government collapsing is definitely one thing I want for Xmas
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adam277
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Who would replace her?

It's unlikely that Corbyn will get a general election.
So what will happen is Tories will elect a new leader internally as I suspect Sir Graham Brady is quite close to the 48 letters required to trigger a vote of no confidence especially once the vote in parliament fails.
Not a single Tory MP has had the balls to say they would do a better job. So I suspect whoever replaces her will fair no better.
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StriderHort
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I'll believe it when I see it, we've been on the 'Final Days of May' since, well, May at least.

I called it years ago that I see her as a dictator in waiting, not the flashy military Gadaffi type, but the sort who simply thinks they should be in charge and will wriggle out of, distract and generally refuse to comply with the norms, she wants everything to be a secret from the public, MPs and her pretty much her own party and ideally they don't have a say.
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Rakas21
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(Original post by Davij038)
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-a8663386.html


If Theresa mays deal is rejected by parliament, as it is most likely to do so, labour have strongly hinted they will attempt to bring down the government. Obviously this requires the suppprt if Tory rebel’s who have to choose between a hopelessly bad deal with the EU or de facto helping Corbyn become PM.

This government collapsing is definitely one thing I want for Xmas
Although the deal is likely to be voted down and May might be forced to resign (Hammond has hinted at this twice) it is still quite unlikely as things stand that Tory+DUP MP's would in that context vote for a general election (given parliamentry maths, that is what the result would be).

The pattern of events is essentially that May loses the vote, probably does not have the support to take the only option available (stick the deal in a manifesto and call an election herself) and so resigns. The Tories will annoint somebody who essentially commits to rejoining EFTA or No Deal (this essentially depends how rigid and cohesive the ERG are but i suspect the former) and we will leave with a lot of unknowns and a May election. We essentially follow the Bowles-Gove plan.

This assumes though that the Torygraph midweek is correct and the EU cannot stop us rejoining EFTA.
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chieula2301
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the whole country is divided and nobody will ever be happy with whatever the government puts down on the table. May or no May would not make a difference
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Rakas21
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(Original post by StriderHort)
I'll believe it when I see it, we've been on the 'Final Days of May' since, well, May at least.

I called it years ago that I see her as a dictator in waiting, not the flashy military Gadaffi type, but the sort who simply thinks they should be in charge and will wriggle out of, distract and generally refuse to comply with the norms, she wants everything to be a secret from the public, MPs and her pretty much her own party and ideally they don't have a say.
Although i said that her one way out was an election for the deal in this context there is another highly unlikely way she remains in power.. she basically blames the EU for punishing us and goes to the country on no deal.

But she'd have to be one slippery snake to pull that off.
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Rakas21
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(Original post by adam277)
Who would replace her?

It's unlikely that Corbyn will get a general election.
So what will happen is Tories will elect a new leader internally as I suspect Sir Graham Brady is quite close to the 48 letters required to trigger a vote of no confidence especially once the vote in parliament fails.
Not a single Tory MP has had the balls to say they would do a better job. So I suspect whoever replaces her will fair no better.
History over the last century is actually quite clear (if we exclude May herself) on who would replace her given that this would be a change of incumbent.

For the last century every incumbent change has given power to.. the Chancellor or Foreign Secretary.

So history at least suggests it's Hammond vs Hunt which is also known as Norway vs probably Norway since he was a remainer.
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DrMikeHuntHertz
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The deal is meant to be rejected, it's about forcing a second referendum.
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Davij038
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(Original post by Rakas21)
Although the deal is likely to be voted down and May might be forced to resign (Hammond has hinted at this twice) it is still quite unlikely as things stand that Tory+DUP MP's would in that context vote for a general election (given parliamentry maths, that is what the result would be).

The pattern of events is essentially that May loses the vote, probably does not have the support to take the only option available (stick the deal in a manifesto and call an election herself) and so resigns. The Tories will annoint somebody who essentially commits to rejoining EFTA or No Deal (this essentially depends how rigid and cohesive the ERG are but i suspect the former) and we will leave with a lot of unknowns and a May election. We essentially follow the Bowles-Gove plan.

This assumes though that the Torygraph midweek is correct and the EU cannot stop us rejoining EFTA.
The EU may not be able to stop us joining EFTA but I see little incentive for Norway/ Switzerland allowing us to join.

If May resigns and the Tory establishment force through Hunt or someone like that it would be electoral suicide.
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Rakas21
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(Original post by Davij038)
The EU may not be able to stop us joining EFTA but I see little incentive for Norway/ Switzerland allowing us to join.

If May resigns and the Tory establishment force through Hunt or someone like that it would be electoral suicide.
Money and defense again the EU (Norweigan government aside).

Essentially we'd have to agree to only 1 of 5 judges (by current rights, we'd have 2) and we'd probably have to wrangle a fishing deal with Norway (our primary opponent to joining potentially) but by sheer economic and population size we would strengthen EFTA substantially in their dealings with the EU.

Iceland and Switzerland have had ministers who have basically said they'd love it.

Norway (it's government actually wants EU membership) would be least likely to love it since relative dominance switches to us.

..

There is however a legal line of thought (no idea if correct) that neither Norway nor the EU could stop us since we were an initial signatory prior to EU membership.
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Rakas21
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(Original post by DrMikeHuntHertz)
The deal is meant to be rejected, it's about forcing a second referendum.
There's no majority in parliament for the neverendum.
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nepotism
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The whole farce is just a symbol of two and a half years being totally wasted. Every time something bad happened to do with the government (Windrush, rail companies going under, private prisons going under, councils going bankrupt, austerity being found to have been culpable in the deaths of thousands), Theresa and her mates all clamoured to shift our eyes away from the problems and said "oi, look over there, it's Brexit". Now Brexit is falling to pieces too, wth are they gonna fall back on now??
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Nalk1573
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(Original post by Davij038)
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-a8663386.html


If Theresa mays deal is rejected by parliament, as it is most likely to do so, labour have strongly hinted they will attempt to bring down the government. Obviously this requires the suppprt if Tory rebel’s who have to choose between a hopelessly bad deal with the EU or de facto helping Corbyn become PM.

This government collapsing is definitely one thing I want for Xmas
January is the end of December,
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ByEeek
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(Original post by adam277)
Who would replace her?

It's unlikely that Corbyn will get a general election.
So what will happen is Tories will elect a new leader internally as I suspect Sir Graham Brady is quite close to the 48 letters required to trigger a vote of no confidence especially once the vote in parliament fails.
Not a single Tory MP has had the balls to say they would do a better job. So I suspect whoever replaces her will fair no better.
Labour can only bring down the government. This would likely lead to a change of Tory leadership as May will be sensible enough to resign. What it will do is put Britain in the biggest political mess for a few hundred years.
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Rakas21
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(Original post by ByEeek)
Labour can only bring down the government. This would likely lead to a change of Tory leadership as May will be sensible enough to resign. What it will do is put Britain in the biggest political mess for a few hundred years.
Labour can't bring down the government unless Tories vote for Christmas which they won't.

I think Labour's attempt will highly likely fail and that May would go... the complicated factor is whether the ERG will agree to annoint somebody who can get some kind of deal (based on reading the past week, likely EFTA) or push it down to the party membership who might well push no deal via an ultra.

At any rate if May goes then at David Lidington gets to be PM for a month even he can't do anything.
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Davij038
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(Original post by Rakas21)
Labour can't bring down the government unless Tories vote for Christmas which they won't.

I think Labour's attempt will highly likely fail and that May would go... the complicated factor is whether the ERG will agree to annoint somebody who can get some kind of deal (based on reading the past week, likely EFTA) or push it down to the party membership who might well push no deal via an ultra.

At any rate if May goes then at David Lidington gets to be PM for a month even he can't do anything.
The ERG have limited credibility now.

The Tories are between a rock and a hard place. Some may find a Corbyn government for five years more palatable than a terrible deal which could take a life time to sort out.
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Rakas21
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(Original post by Davij038)
The ERG have limited credibility now.

The Tories are between a rock and a hard place. Some may find a Corbyn government for five years more palatable than a terrible deal which could take a life time to sort out.
Possibly but i doubt it. As per every Brexit vote over the summer, for all the talk the Soubry's of this world walked blindly through the lobby with the government.

Politicians may have good intentions but they like power and what Corbyn represents is horrific.
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