28th TSR General Election: Predictions thread Watch
Labour: 16 seats
Libertarian: 9 seats
Liberal Democrat: 6 seats (if they submit a manifesto)
Some independent: 1 seat
Labour: 15/16 (hopefully Red can effectively command his wider membership)
Libertarians: 8/9 (dependant on the persistence of the LT)
Liberal Democrats: 6/7 (seems about average for them, but Eppeb needs to be proactive here so as not to get less)
Independants: 1 or 2 seats maybe (not sure who plans on standing)
My essential thinking for these elections is partly by-election based and partly relative activity based since the last election. Labour will struggle to match their prior vote because they have spent large parts of the term not contacting them. Liberals are poor but not inactive so will probably gain from Labour's woes. The relative dynamic on the right has swung from the Libers to the Tories (i have ignored by-election data here which would suggest an even worse result).
Optimism is a Liberal's best friend.
This is the kind of comment that could end up biting you in the arse
Lib Dems 9
I’m not really accounting for Indies at the moment but I’ll adjust later when they’re announced
libbers 9 +/-1
liberals 8 +/-1
Indie 1 +/-1
I know the bases don't totally 50 but I the other 2 will be in the ranges
True, though I’m kinda counting on the fact that there are only 4 parties and the Libertarians literally lost 4 seats because they’re dead. 9 isn’t an outlandish prediction at all
- Political Ambassador
Conservative & Unionist Party: 16-19
If I had to bet on the election, my vote would go to the Tories. They are by far the most well-run party in the House and, even if there is a targeted PM, Labour's momentum on wider TSR will be a bit lower as we are past real life election season.
Labour Party: 15-18
Labour's performance will most heavily be impacted by the targeted PM. With 16 seats last election I do not see the party falling below 15 considering activity has decreased throughout the House and we have become more active near the end, but external activity could easily see the party receive more seats than it warrants.
Libertarian Party: 7-8
I believe we are going to see the worst election in the party's history. Although they still have a solid member base to get votes out of due to being the newest party and still receiving the benefits of Fleky's recruitment, any more than 8 seats would be a surprise to me considering their current strength.
Liberal Democrats: 5-6
I think people are underestimating how weak the Liberal Democrats really are right now. With a new and relatively unknown leader who hasn't lasted the term, it will be on 04MR17 to guide the party away from complete failure. I don't think there's enough time to at least stop the party from losing at least one seat, and it should be guaranteed if there is a targeted PM and/or a higher turnout.