28th TSR General Election: Predictions thread Watch

Saracen's Fez
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#1
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This is an informal thread in which users can make their predictions for the general election result, either before or after voting opens.
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Life_peer
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Conservative & Unionist: 18 seats
Labour: 16 seats
Libertarian: 9 seats
Liberal Democrat: 6 seats (if they submit a manifesto)
Some independent: 1 seat
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Rakas21
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I shall make a prediction once we know Fez's intentions more however i do agree with LP that victory without a mass PM is highly likely.
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Saracen's Fez
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(Original post by Rakas21)
I shall make a prediction once we know Fez's intentions more however i do agree with LP that victory without a mass PM is highly likely.
I'm hoping for a 'targeted PM', but it will probably link to an election thread, rather than straight to the poll.
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CatusStarbright
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Conservatives: 18
Labour: 15/16 (hopefully Red can effectively command his wider membership)
Libertarians: 8/9 (dependant on the persistence of the LT)
Liberal Democrats: 6/7 (seems about average for them, but Eppeb needs to be proactive here so as not to get less)
Independants: 1 or 2 seats maybe (not sure who plans on standing)
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Rakas21
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With that being the case then the result should not be too distorted by RL and most party policies are rarely especially unpopular. That said, i am also wary of forecasting large shifts so..

Conservatives: 18
Labour: 14
Liberal: 8
Libertarian: 9
Indie: 1

My essential thinking for these elections is partly by-election based and partly relative activity based since the last election. Labour will struggle to match their prior vote because they have spent large parts of the term not contacting them. Liberals are poor but not inactive so will probably gain from Labour's woes. The relative dynamic on the right has swung from the Libers to the Tories (i have ignored by-election data here which would suggest an even worse result).
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Andrew97
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Conservatives: 50 (and we can hear Rakas cheering from across the country)
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Jammy Duel
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(Original post by Andrew97)
Conservatives: 50 (and we can hear Rakas cheering from across the country)
And see everybody with the means to do so leaving the country because they want to go somewhere where there are police on the streets, teachers in classrooms, and they aren't taxed extra for having a job.
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04MR17
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#9
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Liberal Democrats 10
Labour 16
Conservatives 17
Libertarians 7
Independents 0

Optimism is a Liberal's best friend.:awesome:
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CoffeeGeek
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(Original post by 04MR17)
Liberal Democrats 10
Be realistic :rofl:
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Andrew97
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(Original post by CoffeeGeek)
Be realistic :rofl:
Maybe swap the zero and the one around?...
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PetrosAC
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(Original post by CoffeeGeek)
Be realistic :rofl:
This is the kind of comment that could end up biting you in the arse

Labour 18
Tories 17
Lib Dems 9
Libertarians 6

I’m not really accounting for Indies at the moment but I’ll adjust later when they’re announced
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CoffeeGeek
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(Original post by PetrosAC)
This is the kind of comment that could end up biting you in the arse

Labour 18
Tories 17
Lib Dems 9
Libertarians 6

I’m not really accounting for Indies at the moment but I’ll adjust later when they’re announced
Hahaha let’s see about that! Equally the overly optimistic predictions could also bite peoples bums
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PetrosAC
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(Original post by CoffeeGeek)
Hahaha let’s see about that! Equally the overly optimistic predictions could also bite peoples bums
True, though I’m kinda counting on the fact that there are only 4 parties and the Libertarians literally lost 4 seats because they’re dead. 9 isn’t an outlandish prediction at all
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Jammy Duel
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#15
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Labour Tories 15 +/2
libbers 9 +/-1
liberals 8 +/-1
Indie 1 +/-1

I know the bases don't totally 50 but I the other 2 will be in the ranges
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Jammy Duel
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(Original post by PetrosAC)
True, though I’m kinda counting on the fact that there are only 4 parties and the Libertarians literally lost 4 seats because they’re dead. 9 isn’t an outlandish prediction at all
There's been a recovery in active enough numbers since and the 4 remain about, just not able to commit to being on when needed
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Saunders16
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I will make full predictions when we are in the election, but there are too many variables yet to really make an accurate prediction.

Conservative & Unionist Party: 16-19
If I had to bet on the election, my vote would go to the Tories. They are by far the most well-run party in the House and, even if there is a targeted PM, Labour's momentum on wider TSR will be a bit lower as we are past real life election season.

Labour Party: 15-18
Labour's performance will most heavily be impacted by the targeted PM. With 16 seats last election I do not see the party falling below 15 considering activity has decreased throughout the House and we have become more active near the end, but external activity could easily see the party receive more seats than it warrants.

Libertarian Party: 7-8
I believe we are going to see the worst election in the party's history. Although they still have a solid member base to get votes out of due to being the newest party and still receiving the benefits of Fleky's recruitment, any more than 8 seats would be a surprise to me considering their current strength.

Liberal Democrats: 5-6
I think people are underestimating how weak the Liberal Democrats really are right now. With a new and relatively unknown leader who hasn't lasted the term, it will be on 04MR17 to guide the party away from complete failure. I don't think there's enough time to at least stop the party from losing at least one seat, and it should be guaranteed if there is a targeted PM and/or a higher turnout.
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04MR17
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(Original post by Saunders16)
it will be on 04MR17 to guide the party away from complete failure.
Good to know. Thanks for the heads up.:yy:
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Joep95
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#19
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Lab 18
Con 17
Liber 9
Lib 6
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PetrosAC
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(Original post by Jammy Duel)
There's been a recovery in active enough numbers since and the 4 remain about, just not able to commit to being on when needed
Fair enough and good to hear
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