Tories call a vote on a new PM Watch

Fullofsurprises
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Tories have now submitted the magic 48 letters to the Chairman of the 1922 Committee to enable a no-confidence vote of Conservative MPs on the PM.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46535739

Theresa May will face the vote this evening. After that, all bets are off.

The process.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-45953182
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hello_shawn
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If she's gone what can the new PM do? The EU accept nothing but submission remember. What David Cameron asked for, JC referred to what Tony Blair agreed with
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Snufkin
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I'm so bored of Tory chaos.

If she wins (and is therefore safe for a year), I hope she turns against the ERG and supports a much softer - or better yet, no - Brexit. One can dream. :moon:
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Fullofsurprises
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(Original post by hello_shawn)
If she's gone what can the new PM do? The EU accept nothing but submission remember. What David Cameron asked for, JC referred to what Tony Blair agreed with
Precisely. It will make not the least difference, if anything, I think the fact that the Tories would have replaced her in an all-too obvious attempt to get a 'tougher' negotiator into the talks would go down like a lead balloon in most EU countries.

Anyway, this isn't really about Brexit but about the cynical seizing of moments by the sort of ghastly self-admiring people who are the very worst possible choices of leader - Boris, Andrea, etc, you know who you are.
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Fullofsurprises
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(Original post by Snufkin)
I'm so bored of Tory chaos.

If she wins (and is therefore safe for a year), I hope she turns against the ERG and supports a much softer - or better yet, no - Brexit. One can dream. :moon:
She is still up against the ghastly DUP and their idiotic red lines, none of which make any sense to a rational person, given that they themselves are in favour of numerous legislative and political differences for NI from the rest of the country. We are living in a sort of Alice in Wonderland tea party, where nothing truly makes sense.
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ineedamarkscheme
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Really dangerous territory now. It seems a leadership election would lead to a hard brexiteer coronation and chaos.
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Fullofsurprises
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(Original post by ineedamarkscheme)
Really dangerous territory now. It seems a leadership election would lead to a hard brexiteer coronation and chaos.
I think we're heading that way anyway, as it's clear that May can't and won't get her agreement to cover the interim period through and this is all self-generated by her government, which forced through Article 50 before they needed to and set an artificially rushed timetable.
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hello_shawn
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+ the very liberal OP won't be satisfied unless another Tory In Name Only takes over
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Fullofsurprises
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(Original post by hello_shawn)
+ the very liberal OP won't be satisfied unless another Tory In Name Only takes over
For a non-Tory, it's genuinely hard to get excited about the choice between the various ambitious, nasty, slightly shambolic and confused creatures who constitute the 'alternative candidates'. Leading Tories are a sort of daily demonstration of the idea that ambition often exceeds grasp.

Anyway, it seems clear that she will survive the vote, but not long to wait to find out at least.
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Drewski
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(Original post by Fullofsurprises)
For a non-Tory, it's genuinely hard to get excited about the choice
Is there such a thing as an exciting leadership election on any side?

And if you think there is, shouldn't you get out more?
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Fullofsurprises
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(Original post by Drewski)
Is there such a thing as an exciting leadership election on any side?

And if you think there is, shouldn't you get out more?
Lol, it's called being a politics nerd. It would be a pretty big change of plan for me to drop that now. :teehee:
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fallen_acorns
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options as far as I see it:

she wins - she stays as PM and brings a slightly tweaked deal in january and tries her luck again (most likely in my eyes)

she looses -

1, a hard-core brexiteer becomes the new tory party leader. They call an election as soon as possible
2, another soft-leaver (ex-remainer) becomes PM, and tries to get a better deal before the march deadline

At this point, labours best bet is actually if a brexiteer becomes the new PM, because then the new PM will have no choice but to call an election. Why? Because there is 0% chance they would be able to get any of their brexit policies through parliment as it is currently made up. They would need first to go back to the public with a brexit-manifesto, and more brexiteers on the ballot.. and try and shift the ballance of parliment more towards leave. They would at least need a majority of support within their own party, and certainly an overal majority in the commons.

another may-type repalcement though, would probably just look at the situation and feel like they could get a slightly tweeked version of her deal through parliment in march.. without the need for an election
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Drewski
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(Original post by Fullofsurprises)
Lol, it's called being a politics nerd. It would be a pretty big change of plan for me to drop that now. :teehee:
Point 2 still applies 🤣
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travelcollegeguy
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So predictions will she win or lose
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Fullofsurprises
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(Original post by Drewski)
Point 2 still applies 🤣
I think I'll take a break once Brexit is over, due to exhaustion.
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Drewski
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(Original post by Fullofsurprises)
I think I'll take a break once Brexit is over, due to exhaustion.
Hahahaha, you think it'll actually end ... You naive fool.
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Fullofsurprises
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(Original post by Drewski)
Hahahaha, you think it'll actually end ... You naive fool.
:rofl:
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Tenya Iida
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anyone else really f*cking tired
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mojojojo101
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If she loses, a no deal Brexit is basically guaranteed.
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Snufkin
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(Original post by mojojojo101)
If she loses, a no deal Brexit is basically guaranteed.
No it isn't. If she loses, a hard-Brexiteer would likely become the next PM - then the government would collapse and article 50 would be extended to make time for a general election.
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