EU already preparing for inevitable delay to Article 50 Watch

Fullofsurprises
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Looks like the EU are already getting organised for the now-inevitable request from the British government to postpone Article 50, given that Theresa May is bound to lose her crucial vote on Tuesday.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics...-at-least-july

Assuming she beats off Corbyn's no-confidence motion, she can then go back to the public and say "look, I tried everything, but I really can't give you departure as planned", which is what she's covertly been aiming for all along, according to some. (According to others, she's just hopelessly out of her depth as PM and constantly confuses sticking rigidly to the same plan with leadership.)

The March 29th date for Article 50 was set in a tremendous rush and need never have been committed to so early. It is another example of stupendous mismanagement of Brexit negotiations by the UK government. It should only have been put forward once it was clear what terms the UK would continue to have with the EU. Instead it has become a wall against which the government pointlessly bangs its head.

It will be fun next week, to say the least. :rolleyes:
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Notoriety
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"Postpone Article 50". What on earth does that mean?

Article 50 is the notification, and its procedures, and the notification been given: it's a simple as that. If you mean extension of the 2-year negotiation period, agreeing this is not outside of Art 50 but explicitly provided for under the Article. The only outcome that it outside of Art 50's provisions, thus far contemplated, is unilateral revocation of the notification. Sadly, no big political mover has the balls to suggest it. This pedantic point is worth making because you, and others, are not aware of the technical details yourself yet pretend the Govt's management of the technical details has been inadequate. In other words, your challenge is sheer rhetoric

If we were to wait till we had a good idea of what we were gonna get, then at the start of Jan 2019 we would still not know and would still not be able to notify. Indeed, we will only know the exact agreement after the transition period has started; when the finer details will be negotiated. I think the point you're making ignores the political pressure put on the PM by Brexiteers to notify ASAP.

Frankly, Corbyn's complaining is gonna do him nor the country any good -- the last thing we need is him attempting to come up with something, when he couldn't organise a piss up in a brewery. Or him ruining negotiations, so we're forced to No Deal. Along with a few years of uncertainty and economic depression, through his unfocused and misguided political opportunism.
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Fullofsurprises
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(Original post by Notoriety)
"Postpone Article 50". What on earth does that mean?

Article 50 is the notification, and its procedures, and the notification been given: it's a simple as that. If you mean extension of the 2-year negotiation period, agreeing this is not outside of Art 50 but explicitly provided for under the Article. The only outcome that it outside of Art 50's provisions, thus far contemplated, is unilateral revocation of the notification. Sadly, no big political mover has the balls to suggest it. This pedantic point is worth making because you, and others, are not aware of the technical details yourself yet pretend the Govt's management of the technical details has been inadequate. In other words, your challenge is sheer rhetoric

If we were to wait till we had a good idea of what we were gonna get, then at the start of Jan 2019 we would still not know and would still not be able to notify. Indeed, we will only know the exact agreement after the transition period has started; when the finer details will be negotiated. I think the point you're making ignores the political pressure put on the PM by Brexiteers to notify ASAP.

Frankly, Corbyn's complaining is gonna do him nor the country any good -- the last thing we need is him attempting to come up with something, when he couldn't organise a piss up in a brewery. Or him ruining negotiations, so we're forced to No Deal. Along with a few years of uncertainty and economic depression, through his unfocused and misguided political opportunism.
Yes, I was using shorthand, it is indeed a suggestion that the negotiating period would be extended. However, I don't share your view that there is no possibility of cancelling the Article 50 invocation with a view to putting in again at some later date to be agreed - that I think is what will happen if as seems possible her government collapses next week. In any event, if the EU are willing to permit technical delays to it for longish periods, it pretty much adds up to the same thing - a delay to our leaving. I don't underestimate the pressure that was coming in from Brexiteers at the time, but leaders have to lead and when the going gets tough is when real tough leadership is required. Unfortunately her leadership all along has been to act not as if the country was split 52:48 but as if it was an overwhelming and unitary victory for Brexit. This has been particularly painful to watch given that these theatrics have only taken place because as a known Remainer she had to 'prove' her Brexitness and has used and abused the country ever since in that vain pursuit.

Corbyn might win his confidence motion if the DUP decide they haven't been bribed enough, er, I mean make a principled rejection of the totally unacceptable position on the backstop, in which case, all bets are off and the Corbynium could be just around the corner.
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ColinDent
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The irony is that had we just left the day after the referendum we would almost certainly be in a much better position right now, parliament has proper fooked this up, wilfully too.
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DJKL
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(Original post by Fullofsurprises)
Yes, I was using shorthand, it is indeed a suggestion that the negotiating period would be extended. However, I don't share your view that there is no possibility of cancelling the Article 50 invocation with a view to putting in again at some later date to be agreed - that I think is what will happen if as seems possible her government collapses next week. In any event, if the EU are willing to permit technical delays to it for longish periods, it pretty much adds up to the same thing - a delay to our leaving. I don't underestimate the pressure that was coming in from Brexiteers at the time, but leaders have to lead and when the going gets tough is when real tough leadership is required. Unfortunately her leadership all along has been to act not as if the country was split 52:48 but as if it was an overwhelming and unitary victory for Brexit. This has been particularly painful to watch given that these theatrics have only taken place because as a known Remainer she had to 'prove' her Brexitness and has used and abused the country ever since in that vain pursuit.

Corbyn might win his confidence motion if the DUP decide they haven't been bribed enough, er, I mean make a principled rejection of the totally unacceptable position on the backstop, in which case, all bets are off and the Corbynium could be just around the corner.
There is a negotiating difference between extending the period (with required assent of the 27) and withdrawing the notice (within our hands though legal position re the how is not totally certain, see below). The first buys some time but still with a ticking clock dictating events that may be difficult to work with if the clock runs down again the second fully stops the clock and would require a complete restart later if required.

This analysis re the legal position re revoking is worth reading, to avoid suspense, if you read it, the writers come to no conclusive legal view of the required UK constitutional process.

http://ukandeu.ac.uk/revoking-articl...e-ecjs-ruling/
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Fullofsurprises
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(Original post by DJKL)
There is a negotiating difference between extending the period (with required assent of the 27) and withdrawing the notice (within our hands though legal position re the how is not totally certain, see below). The first buys some time but still with a ticking clock dictating events that may be difficult to work with if the clock runs down again the second fully stops the clock and would require a complete restart later if required.

This analysis re the legal position re revoking is worth reading, to avoid suspense, if you read it, the writers come to no conclusive legal view of the required UK constitutional process.

http://ukandeu.ac.uk/revoking-articl...e-ecjs-ruling/
I'm no lawyer, but it does sound as though either Parliament on a vote, or the government on an edict, can cancel A50 with little more than a nod.

Given that it was all the result of a referendum might of course make that only theoretical, but if it is was announced to be in the essential national interest, as I'm sure it would be, it would be difficult to imagine the ageing Kippers and Home County types rushing out of their bungalows in yellow vests to protest.
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Notoriety
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(Original post by DJKL)
There is a negotiating difference between extending the period (with required assent of the 27) and withdrawing the notice (within our hands though legal position re the how is not totally certain, see below). The first buys some time but still with a ticking clock dictating events that may be difficult to work with if the clock runs down again the second fully stops the clock and would require a complete restart later if required.

This analysis re the legal position re revoking is worth reading, to avoid suspense, if you read it, the writers come to no conclusive legal view of the required UK constitutional process.

http://ukandeu.ac.uk/revoking-articl...e-ecjs-ruling/
FoS is talking about the political possibility of unilateral revocation, should May's deal be rejected by the Commons. I don't happen to think this marries with Corbyn's stated position, but I would personally welcome it.

Art 50, it has been argued, has a bona fide limit. If notification or revocation were done in bad faith, then only then could the Council refuse to accept a notification or a revocation. This means we could potentially withdraw and re-notify at a later point.
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Fullofsurprises
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(Original post by ColinDent)
The irony is that had we just left the day after the referendum we would almost certainly be in a much better position right now, parliament has proper fooked this up, wilfully too.
You mean left without negotiation? I guess, yeah, everything would be good now, with the economy down 10 or 15%, the pound having completely tanked, everything in the shops costing twice as much, 6m unemployed, massive social dislocation, fury in the streets from both migrant protesters and the disenchanted attacking them at the urging of the far right (for who else will the Faragistas be blaming when it all goes pear shaped but the poor immigrants?) - yes, apart from that, everything would I am sure have been just great.
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Fullofsurprises
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(Original post by Notoriety)
FoS is talking about the political possibility of unilateral revocation, should May's deal be rejected by the Commons. I don't happen to think this marries with Corbyn's stated position, but I would personally welcome it.

Art 50, it has been argued, has a bona fide limit. If notification or revocation were done in bad faith, then only then could the Council refuse to accept a notification or a revocation. This means we could potentially withdraw and re-notify at a later point.
This morning on the Andrew Marr show he seemed to be hinting (in so far as one could glean actual statements from the generalised bearded blather) that Labour would call for a postponed A50, but naturally he didn't specify how that would happen. He admitted that in the event of a general election, it would be impossible to go through with Mar 29th.
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Mister Fantastic
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(Original post by Fullofsurprises)
You mean left without negotiation? I guess, yeah, everything would be good now, with the economy down 10 or 15%, the pound having completely tanked, everything in the shops costing twice as much, 6m unemployed, massive social dislocation, fury in the streets from both migrant protesters and the disenchanted attacking them at the urging of the far right (for who else will the Faragistas be blaming when it all goes pear shaped but the poor immigrants?) - yes, apart from that, everything would I am sure have been just great.
And a comet destroying most of Britain.
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Notoriety
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(Original post by Fullofsurprises)
This morning on the Andrew Marr show he seemed to be hinting (in so far as one could glean actual statements from the generalised bearded blather) that Labour would call for a postponed A50, but naturally he didn't specify how that would happen. He admitted that in the event of a general election, it would be impossible to go through with Mar 29th.
Much easier to do it unilaterally -- here practically with the agreement of the EU top brass. Extension requires unanimous agreement of the EU-MSs, which could be a lot more difficult to secure.

Another bonus: revocation opens up the possibility for national reflection on the God-awful mess we got ourselves in to.

Although, I am slightly interested to see how No Deal would actually turn out. The Exit Day conclusion of treaties of NZ/Aus, Canada and the US -- we'll be rich.
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DJKL
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(Original post by Fullofsurprises)
I'm no lawyer, but it does sound as though either Parliament on a vote, or the government on an edict, can cancel A50 with little more than a nod.

Given that it was all the result of a referendum might of course make that only theoretical, but if it is was announced to be in the essential national interest, as I'm sure it would be, it would be difficult to imagine the ageing Kippers and Home County types rushing out of their bungalows in yellow vests to protest.
I suspect that is the case but am also no lawyer, it is not so much protests but ensuring the EU, and subsequently the courts if need be, would confirm that approach, if the H of C passed legislation and a letter was delivered to the EU it would be a complete shambles if subsequently someone contested the validity of such an approach.

It is interesting that the ECJ do not themselves adjudicate, the article suggests any deliberation on the how now reverts to the Court of Session in Edinburgh and then,presumably, the Supreme Court-the irony that the UK courts will rule re the constitutional question re how HMG's right to revoke requires executed is in our hands-maybe we do not need to leave the EU to take back control of our laws.

" The UK’s constitution is uncodified and largely unwritten, so its requirements are often subject to debate and disagreement. Hence the process to trigger Article 50 had to be determined by the UK Supreme Court. Indeed, the Court of Session will be required to issue a declarator on how Article 50 can be revoked as the next stage in the Wightman case. "

http://ukandeu.ac.uk/revoking-articl...e-ecjs-ruling/
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DJKL
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(Original post by Notoriety)
FoS is talking about the political possibility of unilateral revocation, should May's deal be rejected by the Commons. I don't happen to think this marries with Corbyn's stated position, but I would personally welcome it.

Art 50, it has been argued, has a bona fide limit. If notification or revocation were done in bad faith, then only then could the Council refuse to accept a notification or a revocation. This means we could potentially withdraw and re-notify at a later point.
But there is also legal process, what is required to happen to permit HMG to submit a letter to revoke, the article I linked suggests the position is not totally clear- we may need to revert to our own courts with a ticking clock.

We are now into the legal how rather than the may we.

" The UK’s constitution is uncodified and largely unwritten, so its requirements are often subject to debate and disagreement. Hence the process to trigger Article 50 had to be determined by the UK Supreme Court. Indeed, the Court of Session will be required to issue a declarator on how Article 50 can be revoked as the next stage in the Wightman case. "

http://ukandeu.ac.uk/revoking-articl...e-ecjs-ruling/
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Notoriety
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(Original post by DJKL)
But there is also legal process, what is required to happen to permit HMG to submit a letter to revoke, the article I linked suggests the position is not totally clear- we may need to revert to our own courts with a ticking clock.

We are now into the legal how rather than the may we.

" The UK’s constitution is uncodified and largely unwritten, so its requirements are often subject to debate and disagreement. Hence the process to trigger Article 50 had to be determined by the UK Supreme Court. Indeed, the Court of Session will be required to issue a declarator on how Article 50 can be revoked as the next stage in the Wightman case. "

http://ukandeu.ac.uk/revoking-articl...e-ecjs-ruling/
I am sure an Act would clear everything up.
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paul514
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All the talk, all the posturing will come down to does may go back on everything she has said or does she stick to it.

There will be twists such as a second vote but it will come down to her.
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DJKL
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(Original post by Notoriety)
I am sure an Act would clear everything up.
No idea-will leave that one to the constitutional lawyers to determine, just think it would be a good idea if the Court of Session actually got on with issuing a ruling re the matter (if they have not yet done) if it is within their role/jurisdiction, as the article suggests ,and if they have been asked; maybe they have gone to Avizandum.
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DJKL
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(Original post by paul514)
All the talk, all the posturing will come down to does may go back on everything she has said or does she stick to it.

There will be twists such as a second vote but it will come down to her.
She may, by the 21st or shortly thereafter, have little choice in the matter, the H of C may effectively take over from HMG if she cannot carry the H of C to conduct business.
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paul514
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(Original post by DJKL)
She may, by the 21st or shortly thereafter, have little choice in the matter, the H of C may effectively take over from HMG if she cannot carry the H of C to conduct business.
And that is done how.....
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DJKL
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(Original post by paul514)
And that is done how.....
Well per John Hemming, a former MP, on Lemonfool

" The procedural nub is that the rules of the House of Commons are in its standing orders. These are subject to a modification by a motion passed by a majority of members of parliament. Such a motion does not have to be moved by a member of the government it can be moved by any MP.

I presume the same applies to the House of Lords.

There clearly is a majority in the house for parliament to pass motions that the government does not agree with. Whether that majority can come together to push any particular change (such as withdrawing the article 50 notice) is unclear at this stage.

However, any effectively constitutional changes needed to parliamentary process to circumvent the government merely require a majority vote in the House of Commons. "

https://www.lemonfool.co.uk/viewtopi...193319#p193319

Now I am no lawyer, and maybe there are lawyers who would disagree, but his having served as an MP (Lib) lends a little weight to his knowledge of parliamentary procedure.
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paul514
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(Original post by DJKL)
Well per John Hemming, a former MP, on Lemonfool

" The procedural nub is that the rules of the House of Commons are in its standing orders. These are subject to a modification by a motion passed by a majority of members of parliament. Such a motion does not have to be moved by a member of the government it can be moved by any MP.

I presume the same applies to the House of Lords.

There clearly is a majority in the house for parliament to pass motions that the government does not agree with. Whether that majority can come together to push any particular change (such as withdrawing the article 50 notice) is unclear at this stage.

However, any effectively constitutional changes needed to parliamentary process to circumvent the government merely require a majority vote in the House of Commons. "

https://www.lemonfool.co.uk/viewtopi...193319#p193319

Now I am no lawyer, and maybe there are lawyers who would disagree, but his having served as an MP (Lib) lends a little weight to his knowledge of parliamentary procedure.
Every politics program I have watched has commented for weeks and months now that it can only be stopped by a no confidence vote that can’t be won or may herself allowing it to be stopped.

If she stone walls then they can’t do a thing about it as the government doesn’t need to take notice of anything they lay down in parliament because the instruments aren’t binding on the government.
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