Project Fear: How far will they take it? Watch

NJA
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#21
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#21
On e of the conditions of receiving EU funding is that you agree not to criticise the EU

The CBI receive some funding and their pronouncement s are always agInst any change, with the usual sometimes skilful sometimes not prognostications on the doom that will come if we dare not bow down to that power.
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mojojojo101
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(Original post by NJA)
David Buik speaks regularly on LBC and gives industry analysis he claims that Tim Enders of Airbus has been got at with his claim that brexit will be disastrous. The fact is that it would take 5 years to train people if Airbus moved out of the UK, Boeing are happy to stay in the UK, they're not mad, there is sleezy politics going on here. https://youtu.be/pwq5RF1APZI

We also hear that company's systems wouldn't work if brexit happened but systems are computer packages with settings that can easily be reset according to the tariffs and prices , programmers can be employed if it's more technical than that. The claim lacks credibility, the news media giving these fearful stories don't go into detail at least I haven't heard them.
You've clearly never had to fix a software problem.
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Fullofsurprises
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So on the one hand we have the fantasy that everything is just 'project fear'.

And on the other we have every major retailer in the UK warning that it will be at least 6 months of total chaos.
https://www.theguardian.com/business...s-asda-ms-coop
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Fullofsurprises
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(Original post by NJA)
Remember how we were told that leave ads on Facebook helped them win the Referendum?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44966969


Well it hardly made the headlines (especially the bbc) but it's since been revealed that remain spent three times more in a Guardian article I read, this sky article backs it up
news.sky.com/story/remain-v-leave-scale-of-facebook-ad-war-revealed-11530148
The Leave campaign have admitted placing more than one billion targeted ads on Facebook during the referendum, all using illegally obtained data via Cambridge Analytica.
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ByEeek
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(Original post by NJA)
I keep hearing that No Deal will be a disaster but nobody ever gives any actual figures as to how they come to that conclusion.
Why is this?
Can anybody please supply them so that they can be peer reviewed
Because trading with Europe (our nearest and biggest trade partner) will suddenly over night become very complex, buerocratic and expensive (there will be WTO tarrifs to pay). Given that no one has prepared for a no deal we will literally go to a system that works brilliantly to no system at all over night. This will hit the flow of goods and in particular the flow of goods in just-in-time ordering systems. So that is basically 30% of our food, most manufactured goods and retail giants like Argos all the way down to the likes of McDonalds and KFC. The likihood is that fresh food will be hard to come by and shelves in the short term will be empty. By the time things do get back to normal, prices will go up because there will be import tarrifs to pay.

The biggest hit however will be on the value of the pound which will plummet amidst the massive uncertainties over our economy. Since we import more than we export, prices will increase massively due to the low value of our pound which will in turn ramp up inflation. To quell inflation the BofE will be compelled to increase interest rates which will see higher mortgage repayments and rent prices. House prices will fall as a result of a lack of confidence in the market leaving many in negative equity.

And on top of the double whammy of price increases from a weak pound and increased import tariffs, opportunists will increase prices simply because they can.

Could you please tell me (without referring to project fear) why everything will by hunky dory?
Last edited by ByEeek; 2 weeks ago
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Burton Bridge
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May I just ask why you feel so happy to be so reliant on imported food?
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Fullofsurprises
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(Original post by Burton Bridge)
May I just ask why you feel so happy to be so reliant on imported food?
That's hardly the point - the issue is that like it or not, we are totally reliant now on imported food, not just for direct human consumption, but for the feedstocks that UK farmers use to produce 'British' food. Therefore it's irrelevant what you or we want, the issue is the massive dislocation this will cause, which could take years (some farming industry people say up to a decade) to restructure - in the meantime, we will actually be short of food.

A hard Brexit will be preceeded by massive panic buying - the strong will muscle out the weak, there will be fights in and around shops and serious public disorder when people start to realise they can't get anything to eat. This is only weeks away if the government increasingly look like they are failing to do the right things. So even before we hit the major and life-threatening dislocations that will follow a Hard Brexit, we will already be in extremely severe trouble.

This is why the government are planning for martial law.
https://www.indy100.com/article/brex...sa-may-8748796
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Burton Bridge
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(Original post by Fullofsurprises)
That's hardly the point - the issue is that like it or not, we are totally reliant now on imported food, not just for direct human consumption, but for the feedstocks that UK farmers use to produce 'British' food. Therefore it's irrelevant what you or we want, the issue is the massive dislocation this will cause, which could take years (some farming industry people say up to a decade) to restructure - in the meantime, we will actually be short of food.

A hard Brexit will be preceeded by massive panic buying - the strong will muscle out the weak, there will be fights in and around shops and serious public disorder when people start to realise they can't get anything to eat. This is only weeks away if the government increasingly look like they are failing to do the right things. So even before we hit the major and life-threatening dislocations that will follow a Hard Brexit, we will already be in extremely severe trouble.

This is why the government are planning for martial law.
https://www.indy100.com/article/brex...sa-may-8748796
Lol it might well be the point you wish to focus on, but probably it more the real point than you think.

The question of what will happen when we leave is being fired around so much, but the real question is what would happen if we remained! I had a topic on this which was generating some good reading, unfortunately the student rooms removed it for whatever reason?
Last edited by Burton Bridge; 2 weeks ago
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Fullofsurprises
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(Original post by Burton Bridge)
Lol it might well be the point you wish to focus on, but probably it more the real point than you think.

The question of what will happen when we leave is being fired around so much, but the real question is what would happen if we remained! I had a topic on this which was generating some good reading, unfortunately the student rooms removed it for whatever reason?
Can you explain why you think it's the real point in the context of a discussion about the immediate effects of a hard Brexit?
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Burton Bridge
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(Original post by Fullofsurprises)
Can you explain why you think it's the real point in the context of a discussion about the immediate effects of a hard Brexit?
Firstly this discussion is not just about the short term effects of leaving the EU.

Unfortunately the ability to trade easily with other countries since joing the EEC has had a drastic effect on our own business. The question is what would happen if we were to stay long term must be addressed because so much of the country wants out. Leaving the EU could be a vote for the start of becoming more suciffient again, maybe some nationalised industries could be funded instead of paying billions to the EU coffers.

I don't think short term this is likely to happen because that certainly not the Brexit the Conservatives want, we are much more likely to get flooded with lower quality food from elsewhere, however people should be instructing what they want.

Do we really want to be reliant on the ambilical cord of other nations? Maybe this is what the British people are saying when they are saying 'we want change'
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Captain Haddock
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I remember when No Deal was a project fear fantasy. Now it's supposedly the only way forward. Funny how that worked out, huh?
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old_dude
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(Original post by Fullofsurprises)
So on the one hand we have the fantasy that everything is just 'project fear'.

And on the other we have every major retailer in the UK warning that it will be at least 6 months of total chaos.
https://www.theguardian.com/business...s-asda-ms-coop
My plan is to get rich by stockpiling meat and insulin. :u:
Last edited by old_dude; 2 weeks ago
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Mister Fantastic
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#33
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(Original post by old_dude)
My plan is to get rich by stokpiling meat and insuline. :u:
Inject the insulin into the meat, kill two birds...
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mojojojo101
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#34
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(Original post by Captain Haddock)
I remember when No Deal was a project fear fantasy. Now it's supposedly the only way forward. Funny how that worked out, huh?
It's not just that though is it... many Brexiteers have changed the narrative after the fact to suggest that a no deal Brexit is what everyone wanted from the start.
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DJKL
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And the bigger issue than tarrifs, the one that money alone cannot solve, is regulation and product acceptance- e.g. we are not geared up to implement the necessary controls re the foodstuffs and livestock we export to gain regulatory acceptance in the EU and the other markets we traded with via EU trade agreements that will fall upon leaving, and we are really not set up to check vast increases in volumes of foodstuffs coming into the UK from countries with which we will no longer have cross border standards recognition (same applies re planes/cars etc).

Tarriffs, however painful ,can be paid, no regulatory allignment agreements are a very different matter- they are where a No Deal will potentially cause real issues and will not be sorted overnight but will take months, and in these months a fair few smaller business entities, not having enough liquidity to survive, will fail.

A No Deal Brexit required years of planning, even if we had started in 2016 there would still be issues, we are so unprepared now that if No Deal in 60 days there will be severe issues.

Still, only 60 days to wait and see reality.
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Mister Fantastic
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Here's a cracker.

British officials have revived cold war emergency plans to relocate the royal family should there be riots in London if Britain suffers a disruptive departure from the European Union, two Sunday newspapers have reported.

“These emergency evacuation plans have been in existence since the cold war but have now been repurposed in the event of civil disorder following a no-deal Brexit,” the Sunday Times said, quoting an unnamed source from the government’s Cabinet Office, which handles sensitive administrative issues.

The Mail on Sunday also said it had learnt of plans to move the royal family, including Queen Elizabeth, to safe locations away from London.


https://www.theguardian.com/politics...s-ugly-reports
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HighOnGoofballs
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(Original post by Mister Fantastic)
I'm claming that it won't be as bad as a toxic, volcanic ash cloud.
Not to dig too much into semantics, but the Icelandic eruption in 2010 wasn't actually that bad, so you're analogy is flawed. It mainly disturbed air traffic and hardly affected Iceland at all - with only one bridge getting destroyed that was very quickly replaced.
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Fullofsurprises
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(Original post by Mister Fantastic)
Here's a cracker.

British officials have revived cold war emergency plans to relocate the royal family should there be riots in London if Britain suffers a disruptive departure from the European Union, two Sunday newspapers have reported.

“These emergency evacuation plans have been in existence since the cold war but have now been repurposed in the event of civil disorder following a no-deal Brexit,” the Sunday Times said, quoting an unnamed source from the government’s Cabinet Office, which handles sensitive administrative issues.

The Mail on Sunday also said it had learnt of plans to move the royal family, including Queen Elizabeth, to safe locations away from London.


https://www.theguardian.com/politics...s-ugly-reports
We can only pray that the main instigators of Brexit will also remain safe - people like William Rees-Mogg, with his huge country estate in New Zealand, should be OK. Nigel Farage, who has made sure his children are all German citizens and retains houses in the US, Belgium and Germany. Or Ian Duncan-Smith, who has secured a large property in Canada. It sounds as if they are all making sensible plans to get away, thank goodness.
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Notoriety
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(Original post by Captain Haddock)
I remember when No Deal was a project fear fantasy. Now it's supposedly the only way forward. Funny how that worked out, huh?
And Brexit affecting manufacturing was lunacy cooked up by the intelligentsia to scare people, this having any negative impact was just to quiet people so the intelligentsia could maintain their project. That the claims this would be a difficult and almost impossible negotiation was sheer nonsense -- they need us as much as them. That people saying we would have difficulty signing up to future trade deals -- it'll be easy as breathing.

Turns out really Brexit is a ****-show.
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Quady
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(Original post by Mister Fantastic)
Most of the cabinet office are remainiacs that's why were so ****ed.Not sure what your point is.
I guess because they are directed by a remainer Cabinet?
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