On e of the conditions of receiving EU funding is that you agree not to criticise the EU
The CBI receive some funding and their pronouncement s are always agInst any change, with the usual sometimes skilful sometimes not prognostications on the doom that will come if we dare not bow down to that power.
(Original post by NJA)
I keep hearing that No Deal will be a disaster but nobody ever gives any actual figures as to how they come to that conclusion.
Why is this?
Can anybody please supply them so that they can be peer reviewed
Because trading with Europe (our nearest and biggest trade partner) will suddenly over night become very complex, buerocratic and expensive (there will be WTO tarrifs to pay). Given that no one has prepared for a no deal we will literally go to a system that works brilliantly to no system at all over night. This will hit the flow of goods and in particular the flow of goods in just-in-time ordering systems. So that is basically 30% of our food, most manufactured goods and retail giants like Argos all the way down to the likes of McDonalds and KFC. The likihood is that fresh food will be hard to come by and shelves in the short term will be empty. By the time things do get back to normal, prices will go up because there will be import tarrifs to pay.
The biggest hit however will be on the value of the pound which will plummet amidst the massive uncertainties over our economy. Since we import more than we export, prices will increase massively due to the low value of our pound which will in turn ramp up inflation. To quell inflation the BofE will be compelled to increase interest rates which will see higher mortgage repayments and rent prices. House prices will fall as a result of a lack of confidence in the market leaving many in negative equity.
And on top of the double whammy of price increases from a weak pound and increased import tariffs, opportunists will increase prices simply because they can.
Could you please tell me (without referring to project fear) why everything will by hunky dory?
Last edited by ByEeek; 2 weeks ago
May I just ask why you feel so happy to be so reliant on imported food?
(Original post by Fullofsurprises)
That's hardly the point - the issue is that like it or not, we are totally reliant now on imported food, not just for direct human consumption, but for the feedstocks that UK farmers use to produce 'British' food. Therefore it's irrelevant what you or we want, the issue is the massive dislocation this will cause, which could take years (some farming industry people say up to a decade) to restructure - in the meantime, we will actually be short of food.
A hard Brexit will be preceeded by massive panic buying - the strong will muscle out the weak, there will be fights in and around shops and serious public disorder when people start to realise they can't get anything to eat. This is only weeks away if the government increasingly look like they are failing to do the right things. So even before we hit the major and life-threatening dislocations that will follow a Hard Brexit, we will already be in extremely severe trouble.
This is why the government are planning for martial law.
Lol it might well be the point you wish to focus on, but probably it more the real point than you think.
The question of what will happen when we leave is being fired around so much, but the real question is what would happen if we remained! I had a topic on this which was generating some good reading, unfortunately the student rooms removed it for whatever reason?
Last edited by Burton Bridge; 2 weeks ago
I remember when No Deal was a project fear fantasy. Now it's supposedly the only way forward. Funny how that worked out, huh?
My plan is to get rich by stockpiling meat and insulin.
Last edited by old_dude; 2 weeks ago
And the bigger issue than tarrifs, the one that money alone cannot solve, is regulation and product acceptance- e.g. we are not geared up to implement the necessary controls re the foodstuffs and livestock we export to gain regulatory acceptance in the EU and the other markets we traded with via EU trade agreements that will fall upon leaving, and we are really not set up to check vast increases in volumes of foodstuffs coming into the UK from countries with which we will no longer have cross border standards recognition (same applies re planes/cars etc).
Tarriffs, however painful ,can be paid, no regulatory allignment agreements are a very different matter- they are where a No Deal will potentially cause real issues and will not be sorted overnight but will take months, and in these months a fair few smaller business entities, not having enough liquidity to survive, will fail.
A No Deal Brexit required years of planning, even if we had started in 2016 there would still be issues, we are so unprepared now that if No Deal in 60 days there will be severe issues.
Still, only 60 days to wait and see reality.