(Original post by NJA)
I keep hearing that No Deal will be a disaster but nobody ever gives any actual figures as to how they come to that conclusion.
Why is this?
Can anybody please supply them so that they can be peer reviewed
There is a set of figures I’ve seen them when they first come out.
All scenarios were worse than we would have been staying in the Eu up to the forecast point of 2030.
The worst scenario was no deal at 9% lower GDP than it would have otherwise been but still in growth.
If I remember rightly even the EEA model was 3% lower with something like two thirds of that being because of lower migration numbers.
So what does it tell us?
In my opinion not much as GDP is a crap measure as citizens what we care about is GDP per capita and even more than that is what happens to wages.
The model accounts for NO trade deals being done in that time.
NO natural recessions
NO tax and spend changes
And of course they have trouble predicting 12 months ahead never mind 12 years.
It’s basically laughable.
Posted on the TSR App. Download from Apple
or Google Play