Would a no deal Brexit effect the EU? Watch

TensorTympani
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If no deal brexit would have an affect on the UK then would it be the same for the EU?
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modifiedgenes
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(Original post by TensorTympani)
If no deal brexit would have an affect on the UK then would it be the same for the EU?
The effect of brexit of any flavour depends entirely upon what arrangements the EU agrees to.

The UK has championed free trade for many years and is unlikely to place tariffs or barriers on goods for the sake of it.

The Germans export over half a million cars to the UK every year. You can't tell me putting tariffs on those won't affect their sales.
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ByEeek
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Of course it would. That is why they don't want a no deal. But at the same time, they are not going to hand us everything we want on a silver platter and beg us for mercy. Why would they?
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ByEeek
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(Original post by modifiedgenes)
The UK has championed free trade for many years and is unlikely to place tariffs or barriers on goods for the sake of it.
Agreed. But if we dealing in WTO rules, placing no tarrif for the EU means accepting goods tarrif free from the whole world. e.g. low standard / low quality products.
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modifiedgenes
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(Original post by ByEeek)
Agreed. But if we dealing in WTO rules, placing no tarrif for the EU means accepting goods tarrif free from the whole world. e.g. low standard / low quality products.
It doesn't- the WTO is only a bare bones framework, there is nothing to stop any signatory to the WTO rules from forming a bilateral agreement above and beyond that provided for by the WTO rules.

It is very important that the UK does not remain in the customs union or single market as it hinders our ability to form trade deals with other parties, such as those in the TPP trade agreement.

Europe is now a dead end economically and the UK needs to form ties with other countries further afield, particularly India and China and Brazil- South America as a whole actually is important because they are big exporters of strategic materials like lithium or will be in future.
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ByEeek
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(Original post by modifiedgenes)
It doesn't- the WTO is only a bare bones framework, there is nothing to stop any signatory to the WTO rules from forming a bilateral agreement above and beyond that provided for by the WTO rules.
Exactly. The thing I don't understand is where this idea that you can make a trade deal over night comes from. Mays deal took 2 years. Canada took 7. Without trying to poo poo the idea of another deal, I find it hard to inderstand how it can be any quicker. Even buying a house takes 6 weeks or more to negociate and that is straightforward. The idea you can do a complex trade deal in less time is laughable.
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ColinDent
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(Original post by ByEeek)
Exactly. The thing I don't understand is where this idea that you can make a trade deal over night comes from. Mays deal took 2 years. Canada took 7. Without trying to poo poo the idea of another deal, I find it hard to inderstand how it can be any quicker. Even buying a house takes 6 weeks or more to negociate and that is straightforward. The idea you can do a complex trade deal in less time is laughable.
6 weeks to negotiate buying a house? It took me about 30 minutes after viewing my current house to having an offer accepted, the rest of the process is needlessly long, the whole thing takes about 4 weeks in New Zealand.
As for doing trade deals then I'm pretty certain that a start has been made on many of them already, and the one with the EU should ( depending on how difficult the EU want to make it) be pretty quick because we already have the same regulations.
Last edited by ColinDent; 1 week ago
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modifiedgenes
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The question is this. The UK imports a heck of a lot of goods from the EU as it stands. If we exit and then trade on WTO terms, it will hurt them badly, we drink a lot of French and Italian wine, we buy a lot of Italian leather and olive oils, we buy spanish fruit and vegetables and we buy a lot of German and French and Swedish and Italian cars. ALL of this becomes more expensive and less attractive to UK buyers if they are traded on WTO terms. The UK does not benefit that much from EU membership and our trade deficit with Europe has widened every year since we joined the EEC. The UK trades a lot with the USA and Asia and does much of it in intangible financial services, with London being the premier trading hub for the world because of the way the UK conducts business and the fact we all speak de Engrish.

If the EU want to play silly kippers it will harm the German, French and Italian and Spanish economies the worst. Ok the UK won't be able to export cheese or lamb or beef as readily- hardly the end of the world given that the government has not valued domestic food production for decades.

Europe is stagnant and is actually contracting today. Half of Europe is still stuck with austerity, another portion is increasingly ignoring the EUs diktat and Germany just entered recession. Couple that with an increasingly turbulent and unpredictable Trump, who seems to want to remove the USA from the world stage completely, and the scene is set for the UK to stand up on the world stage and lead the world politically and diplomatically again.

It is no accident the Chinese, Russians and Americans are keen to invest so much money in the UK. Google and Facebook just setup big offices in London, the press did not report this because good news does not sell newsprint.

The UK is a much much larger economy than many others and many countries thrive despite having no membership with the EU. The EU is merely a bastion of protectionism for archaic European industries that cannot survive in a global environment.
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SHallowvale
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(Original post by modifiedgenes)
The question is this. The UK imports a heck of a lot of goods from the EU as it stands. If we exit and then trade on WTO terms, it will hurt them badly, we drink a lot of French and Italian wine, we buy a lot of Italian leather and olive oils, we buy spanish fruit and vegetables and we buy a lot of German and French and Swedish and Italian cars. ALL of this becomes more expensive and less attractive to UK buyers if they are traded on WTO terms. The UK does not benefit that much from EU membership and our trade deficit with Europe has widened every year since we joined the EEC. The UK trades a lot with the USA and Asia and does much of it in intangible financial services, with London being the premier trading hub for the world because of the way the UK conducts business and the fact we all speak de Engrish.

If the EU want to play silly kippers it will harm the German, French and Italian and Spanish economies the worst. Ok the UK won't be able to export cheese or lamb or beef as readily- hardly the end of the world given that the government has not valued domestic food production for decades.

Europe is stagnant and is actually contracting today. Half of Europe is still stuck with austerity, another portion is increasingly ignoring the EUs diktat and Germany just entered recession. Couple that with an increasingly turbulent and unpredictable Trump, who seems to want to remove the USA from the world stage completely, and the scene is set for the UK to stand up on the world stage and lead the world politically and diplomatically again.

It is no accident the Chinese, Russians and Americans are keen to invest so much money in the UK. Google and Facebook just setup big offices in London, the press did not report this because good news does not sell newsprint.

The UK is a much much larger economy than many others and many countries thrive despite having no membership with the EU. The EU is merely a bastion of protectionism for archaic European industries that cannot survive in a global environment.
Er, well about 44% of UK exports and 53% of our imports go to/come from the EU so clearly we do benefit a lot from EU membership.

The industries which would be hardest hit by a no-deal would be the financial and business sectors (which make up over 50% of our service exports) and the transport and pharmaceutical industries (which make up over 50% of our goods exports).

Europe isn't "stagnant" and even if it were that wouldn't stop it from having an economy worth $16 trillion (discounting the UK), which is nearly 6 times larger than our own. Also to think that the UK would lead the world again is incredibly naive, we have neither the economic or military might and are certainly lacking the political will and competence to do so.

Also if the EU is "merely a bastion of protectionism" then why does the single market break the barriers of trade, why does the EU have many free trade deals with the wider world and why is it in the process of negotiating many more?
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modifiedgenes
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(Original post by SHallowvale)
Er, well about 44% of UK exports and 53% of our imports go to/come from the EU so clearly we do benefit a lot from EU membership.

The industries which would be hardest hit by a no-deal would be the financial and business sectors (which make up over 50% of our service exports) and the transport and pharmaceutical industries (which make up over 50% of our goods exports).

Europe isn't "stagnant" and even if it were that wouldn't stop it from having an economy worth $16 trillion (discounting the UK), which is nearly 6 times larger than our own. Also to think that the UK would lead the world again is incredibly naive, we have neither the economic or military might and are certainly lacking the political will and competence to do so.

Also if the EU is "merely a bastion of protectionism" then why does the single market break the barriers of trade, why does the EU have many free trade deals with the wider world and why is it in the process of negotiating many more?
The customs union contains little provision for financial services, the UK is thus not really benefiting from EU membership and has not for years. On the contrary, lots of jobs have been lost as companies move their operations to other parts of Europe.

The EU is not a country, I don't know what makes you think 16 trillion is important. It is a collective number that means nothing.

The UK has the required economic and military might and is already looked upon favourably by many many countries, we are already a world leader.

Pray tell what European country you think would lead the world stage? The French detest the Americans and the Germans have no military.

The EU is highly protectionist and the whole point of the common market was to protect their industries from the rest of the world. This is no secret.
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SHallowvale
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(Original post by modifiedgenes)
The customs union contains little provision for financial services, the UK is thus not really benefiting from EU membership and has not for years. On the contrary, lots of jobs have been lost as companies move their operations to other parts of Europe.

The EU is not a country, I don't know what makes you think 16 trillion is important. It is a collective number that means nothing.

The UK has the required economic and military might and is already looked upon favourably by many many countries, we are already a world leader.

Pray tell what European country you think would lead the world stage? The French detest the Americans and the Germans have no military.

The EU is highly protectionist and the whole point of the common market was to protect their industries from the rest of the world. This is no secret.
The UK isn't just in the customs union, it's in the single market. The single market does cover the financial sector, for example with bank passporting. So yes, the UK does benefit from being in the EU. The free movement of goods side of the single market is also beneficial for both the goods we export and import. It makes goods sold more competitive and keeps costs down on the goods we buy.

The EU is a market worth $16 trillion. Of course this is important; if you're looking to sell something you're going to look at places where there is a lot of money. You're not going to overlook somewhere which has so much wealth simply because it's size hasn't grown much or it is, in some areas, shrinking slightly.

The EU isn't protectionist as it's got lots of free trade deals with non-EU countries. If it were protectionist then this wouldn't be the case. Repeating your point when it's been refuted doesn't make it right.
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modifiedgenes
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(Original post by SHallowvale)
The UK isn't just in the customs union, it's in the single market. The single market does cover the financial sector, for example with bank passporting. So yes, the UK does benefit from being in the EU. The free movement of goods side of the single market is also beneficial for both the goods we export and import. It makes goods sold more competitive and keeps costs down on the goods we buy.

The EU is a market worth $16 trillion. Of course this is important; if you're looking to sell something you're going to look at places where there is a lot of money. You're not going to overlook somewhere which has so much wealth simply because it's size hasn't grown much or it is, in some areas, shrinking slightly.

The EU isn't protectionist as it's got lots of free trade deals with non-EU countries. If it were protectionist then this wouldn't be the case. Repeating your point when it's been refuted doesn't make it right.
Membership of the EU actually drives the costs of some goods up- UK and EU citizens are not permitted to buy Brazilian beef, for example. IT does not keep the costs of anything down. I don't think you realise how the EU manipulate trade agreements. How the heck does it make UK goods more competitive?

The EU is not a country and there is no 16 trillion. Forget that.
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SHallowvale
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(Original post by modifiedgenes)
Membership of the EU actually drives the costs of some goods up- UK and EU citizens are not permitted to buy Brazilian beef, for example. IT does not keep the costs of anything down. I don't think you realise how the EU manipulate trade agreements. How the heck does it make UK goods more competitive?

The EU is not a country and there is no 16 trillion. Forget that.
Membership of the EU lowers the cost of buying goods from the EU as there are no tariffs involved. Likewise it makes UK goods more competitive in the EU because of a lack of tariffs. This is a discussion comparing no deal with EU membership.
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Notoriety
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(Original post by ByEeek)
Agreed. But if we dealing in WTO rules, placing no tarrif for the EU means accepting goods tarrif free from the whole world. e.g. low standard / low quality products.
Only for like goods.
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ColinDent
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(Original post by modifiedgenes)
Membership of the EU actually drives the costs of some goods up- UK and EU citizens are not permitted to buy Brazilian beef, for example. IT does not keep the costs of anything down. I don't think you realise how the EU manipulate trade agreements. How the heck does it make UK goods more competitive?

The EU is not a country and there is no 16 trillion. Forget that.
I agree completely, we could negotiate trade deals with African countries to help their economies to become stronger so they could be more self reliant, unlike the EU.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&sour...49829738501988

And to think they have the nerve to look down on us about our issues with immigration
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