Labour announce backing for a second Brexit referendum Watch

DSilva
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#41
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#41
(Original post by Rakas21)
This is beautiful. Labour's inefficient seat distribution means that while this may well increase the average London labour majority by 10,000, it will cost them a boatload of marginals.
It never ceases to amaze me that people who got everything wrong about the last election are so certain about what will happen at the next, without a shred of doubt.

You may be right of course, but if there's anything the last few years has taught us, it's that conventional wisdom is often wrong.

The people who were claiming that Labour would face electoral oblivion in 2017 are the same ones saying it will happen now.
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Rakas21
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#42
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(Original post by DSilva)
It never ceases to amaze me that people who got everything wrong about the last election are so certain about what will happen at the next, without a shred of doubt.

You may be right of course, but if there's anything the last few years has taught us, it's that conventional wisdom is often wrong.

The people who were claiming that Labour would face electoral oblivion in 2017 are the same ones saying it will happen now.
.. And the same people claiming that things won't happen are those who expect a historical anomoly to be repeated.
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DSilva
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#43
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(Original post by Rakas21)
.. And the same people claiming that things won't happen are those who expect a historical anomoly to be repeated.
I'm not claiming it won't happen. I'm saying no one can say with any type of certainty what will happen given how uncertain and unstable politics is. And it's strange that despite all the recent surprises, people who got everything wrong last time have no doubt at all about what will happen next time.

You may well be correct, if the election is all about Brexit. But, if as last time the election becomes more about the NHS, Social Care, Education, cost of living etc, then Labour may do better than expected. We don't know.

Labour's northern voters could well be equally angered by proposed cuts to their local public services, for example.
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Vinny C
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#44
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(Original post by Davij038)
Say goodbye to those northern seats labour ❤️
Well... he had a choice between upsetting them now or waiting until they were all unemployed then blaming the Tories. Talk about a crisis of conscience!
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Vinny C
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#45
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#45
(Original post by BlueIndigoViolet)
status quo
Great... had enough of the rubbish on Radio 1 anyway.
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Vinny C
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#46
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(Original post by JohanGRK)
Took those soft melts two years

Something about Nero and Rome burning comes to mind
Nice comparison... no point winning an election if you don't have a nation left to rule over.
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Vinny C
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#47
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#47
(Original post by SMEGGGY)
No no no! The decision was made, respect it ffs
Exactly... that clown in a bus has never failed us so far.
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Vinny C
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#48
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(Original post by BlueIndigoViolet)
status quo
May could have used this as a bargaining chip... give me a Cameron ++ and I'll push for a second referendum. Jobs saved and the better deal everyone wants but oh no... that now stale catchphrase "the will of the ERG er… people" (same thing) kept getting in the way.

People (the EU) are much more likely to grease your palm if you are working with them rather than against them.

Golden opportunity missed! Nothing new!
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paul514
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#49
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#49
(Original post by MrDystopia)
Labour have announced they will back a second referendum on Brexit.

Jeremy Corbyn will tell a meeting of Labour MPs that the party will support or put forward an amendment in favour of a public vote to "prevent a damaging Tory Brexit being forced on the country".

"The prime minister is recklessly running down the clock, in an attempt to force MPs to choose between her botched deal and a disastrous no-deal," he is due to tell them. "We cannot and will not accept."

https://news.sky.com/story/labour-an...endum-11648217

What do you think about this? It will be interesting to see if a motion can even pass Parliament, since at present, the only thing that unites the house is that May's deal is awful (and that a No Deal is awful of course). But whether such an amendment for a second referendum could command a majority on this issue (a second vote) is another story.
All I see is labour imploding, there is a reason that they have tried not to actually do a binding vote on a second referendum because it splits a lot of their voters (I don’t know yet if this one would be binding).

I doubt it will pass in the house regardless so it’s lose/lose.
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nulli tertius
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(Original post by Davij038)
Say goodbye to those northern seats labour ❤️
The key northern seats that Labour need to win are those north of Hadrian's Wall.

In 2005 Labour had 39 MPs in Scotland. They currently have 7.
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nulli tertius
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#51
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#51
(Original post by MrDystopia)
Labour have announced they will back a second referendum on Brexit.

Jeremy Corbyn will tell a meeting of Labour MPs that the party will support or put forward an amendment in favour of a public vote to "prevent a damaging Tory Brexit being forced on the country".

"The prime minister is recklessly running down the clock, in an attempt to force MPs to choose between her botched deal and a disastrous no-deal," he is due to tell them. "We cannot and will not accept."

https://news.sky.com/story/labour-an...endum-11648217

What do you think about this? It will be interesting to see if a motion can even pass Parliament, since at present, the only thing that unites the house is that May's deal is awful (and that a No Deal is awful of course). But whether such an amendment for a second referendum could command a majority on this issue (a second vote) is another story.
There cannot be a second referendum without government support. It is as simple as that. It is one of the most cast iron rules of the Commons that any Bill which requires public expenditure has to have a Money Resolution moved by a Minister of the Crown.
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paul514
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#52
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#52
(Original post by nulli tertius)
The key northern seats that Labour need to win are those north of Hadrian's Wall.

In 2005 Labour had 39 MPs in Scotland. They currently have 7.
They aren’t winning those back anytime soon
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Fullofsurprises
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#53
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#53
(Original post by paul514)
They aren’t winning those back anytime soon
They stand a hell of a lot better chance of winning them back with a Remain platform.
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paul514
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#54
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(Original post by Fullofsurprises)
They stand a hell of a lot better chance of winning them back with a Remain platform.
I’m not so sure I’ve seen polling that showed the majority of leavers in Scotland backed remain in the Scottish independence vote, it won’t win them over.

Then there are all the people who will only vote SNP now and labour aren’t going to out europhile the SNP either.

Lastly and probably most importantly the Scottish voter who is pro Eu knows that they can still vote SNP knowing that they will team up with labour on that issue.

It’s a real lose/lose
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holli_
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(Original post by Kian Stevens)
However, I do have to retract that previous hat-top, for one simple reason: he's planning on deconstructing democracy, one of the sweetest things politics has to offer.

The previous democratic referendum won in favour of leaving the EU, i.e. more people voted to leave than to stay. I have to say that last part, because some people simply don't understand how democracy works. A majority wins, end of story.
He can't now try and get a second referendum passed, just because he and his followers don't like the outcome. There would be nationwide outrage - believe it or not - and the social situation would be worse than it is now. Society would simply go nuts.
Not to mention that this could go on ad infinitum. What if the second referendum does go through, and we do have another vote, and the vote to remain won? Would we have a third referendum because the leave supporters are up in arms? It could go on and on and on and...
Can’t believe this hasn’t been mentioned more ...

I don’t understand how people can go on about a “democratic” vote where the winning side BROKE THE LAW?

A lot of arguments for another referendum are flawed, but surely the fact that Vote Leave were ruled by Judges on separate occasions to have broken electoral law should carry a lot of weight? It’s ridiculous to expect one side to just accept the result when it was not won fairly.
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Guru Jason
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I'd be all for another referendum. Albeit one with strict fact checking rules. At the end if the day referendums are about a snapshot of how people are feeling at the time, not some legally binding agreement to follow the outcome. Peoples minds change and let's face it, no one really knew the BS job May would make of Brexit so I reckon many people would indeed change their minds.
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holli_
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(Original post by Guru Jason)
I'd be all for another referendum. Albeit one with strict fact checking rules. At the end if the day referendums are about a snapshot of how people are feeling at the time, not some legally binding agreement to follow the outcome. Peoples minds change and let's face it, no one really knew the BS job May would make of Brexit so I reckon many people would indeed change their minds.
I agree.

However, they CAN be legally binding if explicitly stated. The 2016 Referendum was only advisory though
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Rakas21
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(Original post by Fullofsurprises)
It's more that he's had to give in to what most Labour members and trade unions want, rather than "just to get more support".

There probably is a Remain majority in the country now, so if Labour go into a general election demanding a second referendum, that can only boost them, as it will inspire the membership to work harder and it will present a real alternative to the Tories.
While its possible that there is a Remain plurality right now (though whether it would last a campaign is unknown - polling averages suggest a swing to Remain of about 8% based on Q3 2016 vs Q4 2018) it is important to note that polling does not have Remain breaching 50% as an average which means the DK vote is especially important and probably why MP's in parliament will not pull the trigger.

As i alluded to last night it is entirely probable that the swing is nowhere near uniform in which case you might well see Keir's London majority increase by 10,000 while seeing Wakefield and Halifax go blue. As much as Survation thinks that every Labour constituency may have a remain majority now, do we really believe that. Certainly not in West Yorkshire i don't.

It will be interesting of course to see how this effects the new Blairite party since Labour's primary motivation here is defensive to them (nobody could be naive enough to think Corbyn actually wants this).
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nulli tertius
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(Original post by Rakas21)
While its possible that there is a Remain plurality right now (though whether it would last a campaign is unknown - polling averages suggest a swing to Remain of about 8% based on Q3 2016 vs Q4 2018) it is important to note that polling does not have Remain breaching 50% as an average which means the DK vote is especially important and probably why MP's in parliament will not pull the trigger.

As i alluded to last night it is entirely probable that the swing is nowhere near uniform in which case you might well see Keir's London majority increase by 10,000 while seeing Wakefield and Halifax go blue. As much as Survation thinks that every Labour constituency may have a remain majority now, do we really believe that. Certainly not in West Yorkshire i don't.

It will be interesting of course to see how this effects the new Blairite party since Labour's primary motivation here is defensive to them (nobody could be naive enough to think Corbyn actually wants this).
There was about a 13% differential between the Indyref turnout and the Brexit vote turnout. I suspect we would see that narrowing in a Brexit2 vote unless there was a concerted abstentionist campaign and there would only be that if Leave either considered the vote was unwinnable or the fanatics weren’t prepared to back any of the options.
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Davij038
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(Original post by paul514)
I’m not so sure I’ve seen polling that showed the majority of leavers in Scotland backed remain in the Scottish independence vote, it won’t win them over.

Then there are all the people who will only vote SNP now and labour aren’t going to out europhile the SNP either.

Lastly and probably most importantly the Scottish voter who is pro Eu knows that they can still vote SNP knowing that they will team up with labour on that issue.

It’s a real lose/lose

I think (and sincerely hope) we are witnessing the end of SNP dominance, they reached their heyday in 2015 and I don’t think they’ll make that again. Alex Salmod’s been MeToo’d and they’re just an awful horrible party. Corbyn’s labour are going to take back a good number of seats from
Them, so long as they don’t get people like Jim Murphy to stand.
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