So what will happen now (Brexit)?

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Poll: What is likely to happen now?
A softer Brexit (0)
0%
Recall Article 50 (1)
20%
Mays deal goes through (2)
40%
A peoples vote (1)
20%
Another deal gets agreed upon (1)
20%
jonathanemptage
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#1
Report Thread starter 1 year ago
#1
So May has got her small extension but what do you think will happen now?

I think there is fairly good chance of article 50 being cancelled at least in the short term. The reason for this is the petition that is on you gov has got over 5 million signatures in the last few days also the march in London over the weekend attracted at least 1 million people. It also makes sense politicly it gives The UK time to hash out a deal that the house will agree to and/or be happy with. I'd also like it but then I voted remain.

(Oh I missed one option on my poll which is a No Deal Brexit).
Last edited by jonathanemptage; 1 year ago
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username4540078
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Who knows?

Fairly confident that May either won't put her transition agreement forward for a third vote or it will fail. Other than that, all options are viable.
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username521617
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It's hard to tell. But if I was to rank outcomes in order of liklihood, it would would go:

1. Soft Brexit/another deal
2. May's deal (modified)
3. General election and another referendum
4. No deal Brexit (Parliament has voted against this)
5. Recall Article 50 (just not gonna happen)

I'd say it's likely the UK will still leave, but it's just unclear how and when. Outright canceling Brexit would face a huge backlash which I'd imagine most politicians would want to avoid. People hate them enough already.
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jonathanemptage
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(Original post by Dandaman1)
It's hard to tell. But if I was to rank outcomes in order of liklihood, it would would go:

1. Soft Brexit/another deal
2. May's deal (modified)
3. General election and another referendum
4. No deal Brexit (Parliament has voted against this)
5. Recall Article 50 (just not gonna happen)

I'd say it's likely the UK will still leave, but it's just unclear how and when. Outright canceling Brexit would face a huge backlash which I'd imagine most politicians would want to avoid. People hate them enough already.
I'd say it's looking less likely we are going to leave (I respect the result of he referendum but I don't like it) if they said why they were cancelling article 50 i can see it working out if they said it in such way that it sounded plausible like "We are recalling article 50 to be able to plan a Brexit this is not a cancellation of Brexit it it is just a reset of the clock." If they did that I can see there being less backlash.
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-Eirlys-
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Moved to UK Politics - any Brexit related threads should be posted there. :top:
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Rakas21
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(Original post by jonathanemptage)
So May has got her small extension but what do you think will happen now?

I think there is fairly good chance of article 50 being cancelled at least in the short term. The reason for this is the petition that is on you gov has got over 5 million signatures in the last few days also the march in London over the weekend attracted at least 1 million people. It also makes sense politicly it gives The UK time to hash out a deal that the house will agree to and/or be happy with. I'd also like it but then I voted remain.

(Oh I missed one option on my poll which is a No Deal Brexit).
None of todays options will attain a majority and when May's deal comes back it will also fail but crucially is likely to beat the other options.

This essentially means that either it will come a fourth time or we will head for a general election.

If one of the indicative vote options beats the May deal or one of them attains a majority today (not likely) then we are headed for an election being announced more or less immediately this week. The executive will not countenance being dictated to by parliament (and constitutionally, nor should they).
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scorpion95
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At the moment it is not clear any more, the certainty has been taken away now with the extension. We should be leaving on the 29th March on wto rules which would give everyone certainty and allow us to move on and get on with getting trade deals sorted with the rest of the world and start attracting more businesses with being able to offer better rates and reducing prices of products for us.

With May saying that she will leave if the deal gets passed through is party politics and not for the country. Having said that the deal can't be voted on for the third time without changes being made to it which involves having to go back to the EU and beg for changes to be made which I doubt they will do as they have already said that the deal is final. Also what she has done does work then democracy has failed as she has basically bullied and forced the mps to vote for the bad deal.

If Brexit is revoked then it again is a failure of democracy and to be honest if they do this then I would have to say that the threats that some of the mps apparently have got because of all this mess it will likely make it a lot worse for all of them not just the remoaner EU dictatorship loyalist and it wouldn't surprise me if what happened to think it was Jo Cox (the mp who got stabbed) happens to them especially with the state of the crime in London at the moment. If Brexit is revoked then I think all mps should be given their p45's and normal real world people given the jobs. It would be political suicide for the three main parties and to be honest in the next election I don't think the 3 main parties will be around any more as more people are going to vote for independent parties because of the way parliament has made this mess so massive.

As for a second referendum I don't think there should be one however if there was one there should be and can only be two options 'deal' or 'no deal' as this accounts for remain and leave. So if the majority vote 'no deal' then we leave without a deal and that then ends the remoaners as they then have lost two referendums. But knowing the remoaners they will want another one after that till they get an result that they approve of which could be a lot of referendums and cost us more money. But if the majority vote 'deal' then we leave with the bad deal. I don't think that the remoaners will be happy unless there is an option to revoke Brexit so we stay in and surrender to the dictatorship. So the other options on the referendum should be 'no deal' or 'revoke Brexit'. Any more than two options on the referendum would not be democratic as a deal and revoke option is classed as remain.

There is only one other deal that can happen and that is a no deal Brexit as there isn't enough of an extension that can be granted by the EU and it wouldn't be financially viable for us to have a long extension as the EU will just charge what ever they want which can't be allowed to happen.
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