Today's indicative votes

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Fullofsurprises
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I thought it would be good to have a new thread for this important topic.

Parliament can be watched live here.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/live/bbcparliament

The House is currently voting on the crucial motion to take charge of today's business. If this passes, they can move on to the indicative votes.

Theresa May has announced that Tory MPs have a free vote with the cabinet abstaining.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics...quit-live-news

Labour is whipping for a second referendum, but there is internal friction about this apparently.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics...tion-difficult

I will try to keep this thread up to date with the latest today.
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Rakas21
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(Original post by Fullofsurprises)
I thought it would be good to have a new thread for this important topic.

Parliament can be watched live here.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/live/bbcparliament

The House is currently voting on the crucial motion to take charge of today's business. If this passes, they can move on to the indicative votes.

Theresa May has announced that Tory MPs have a free vote with the cabinet abstaining.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics...quit-live-news

Labour is whipping for a second referendum, but there is internal friction about this apparently.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics...tion-difficult

I will try to keep this thread up to date with the latest today.
The key here for me is 275 votes for any option.

To fudge and eventually get the deal through her third vote needs to beat the other options and it probably can beat 280 at the third atttempt.

If however today’s options can beat May’s third vote then the fan will be hit. The government will not accept having a soft brexit or neverendum dictated to it. It would likely force an election and that might not go as well for remainers as they suspect.
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Andrew97
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Motions picked,
B: leave the Eu without a deal on April 12th

D.K. will join EFTA, stay in the EEA and single Market and enter a customs union until a backstop solution is found

H: EEA+EFTA

J: leave the EU with a U.K. wide customs union

K: permanent CU, aligned to SM on future EU rights and Regs

L: revoke A50 if no deal is not explicitly approved a day before we a due to leave

M: any agreement must be put to the public

O: if no ageeemwnt is agreed, seek standstill agreement with the EU while negotiating a trade deal
Last edited by Andrew97; 1 year ago
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Rakas21
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(Original post by Andrew97)
Motions picked,
B
D
H
J
K
L
M
O
You’ll have to remind us...
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Rakas21
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D and H are interesting, I suspect they are the primary threats to May.

D is single market plus backstop.

H is EFTA plus EEA, softest possible Brexit.
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Andrew97
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(Original post by Rakas21)
You’ll have to remind us...
Edited.
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Plantagenet Crown
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L or M all the way!!
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Burton Bridge
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Fullofsurprises These are far from important, they are the closest thing to a total waste of taxpayers money.

Has anyone seen the unicorn that Corbyn has put forward? It's a more deluded version of Ken clark's..... Grrr. There is little point if a Brexit that keeps us in the CU because we still won't be able to arrange trade with the rest of the world, this is the whole point if Brexit is to gain back control
Last edited by Burton Bridge; 1 year ago
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Fullofsurprises
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Mr Speaker has again challenged the right of the PM to bring the 'meaningful' vote back to the House again. He's saying they need to change it. Apparently they are planning to bring it back tomorrow or Friday.
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Rakas21
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(Original post by Fullofsurprises)
Mr Speaker has again challenged the right of the PM to bring the 'meaningful' vote back to the House again. He's saying they need to change it. Apparently they are planning to bring it back tomorrow or Friday.
Speaker will have to yield otherwise he’s forcing the government into either wasting time prologing parliament or calling an election.
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Fullofsurprises
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(Original post by Rakas21)
Speaker will have to yield otherwise he’s forcing the government into either wasting time prologing parliament or calling an election.
It is hard to see how he can't bend on this if the government portray it as crucial, Erskine May is of course guidance and not law.
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ColinDent
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(Original post by Fullofsurprises)
It is hard to see how he can't bend on this if the government portray it as crucial, Erskine May is of course guidance and not law.
Well if the reports are true and May will be stepping down, possibly by the summer, then the chances of getting the WA through have just increased.
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ColinDent
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Sounds like that's now been confirmed
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Rakas21
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(Original post by ColinDent)
Sounds like that's now been confirmed
Her own letter has confirmed it.

Even if MV3 fails it will do well enough that it can be put up against the Letwin choice on Tuesday and very likely win at the fourth attempt.
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ColinDent
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(Original post by Rakas21)
Her own letter has confirmed it.

Even if MV3 fails it will do well enough that it can be put up against the Letwin choice on Tuesday and very likely win at the fourth attempt.
Next thing we're waiting on is this DUP statement.
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Burton Bridge
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(Original post by ColinDent)
Next thing we're waiting on is this DUP statement.
Yea, they have far more power than they should.

I'd feel better about it if she said there would be a general election after, with a new tory leader.
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ByEeek
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(Original post by Andrew97)
Motions picked,
B: leave the Eu without a deal on April 12th

D.K. will join EFTA, stay in the EEA and single Market and enter a customs union until a backstop solution is found

H: EEA+EFTA

J: leave the EU with a U.K. wide customs union

K: permanent CU, aligned to SM on future EU rights and Regs

L: revoke A50 if no deal is not explicitly approved a day before we a due to leave

M: any agreement must be put to the public

O: if no ageeemwnt is agreed, seek standstill agreement with the EU while negotiating a trade deal
Except in that only options L and M are actually doable. And option M only puts of the inevitable. When you only have 50p in your pocket, no amount of voting to own a Porche is going to get you a Porche.

The options available to us are limited by Europe, not Parliament.
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nulli tertius
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(Original post by Burton Bridge)
Yea, they have far more power than they should.
"Then came the great War. Every institution, almost, in the, world was strained. Great Empires have been overturned. The whole map of Europe has been changed. The position of countries has been violently altered. The modes of thought of men, the whole outlook on affairs, the grouping of parties, all have encountered violent and tremendous changes in the deluge of the world, but as the deluge subsides and the waters fall short we see the dreary steeples of Fermanagh and Tyrone emerging once again. The integrity of their quarrel is one of the few institutions that has been unaltered in the cataclysm which has swept the world. That says a lot for the persistency with which Irish men on the one side or the other are able to pursue their controversies. It says a great deal for the power which Ireland has, both Nationalist and Orange, to lay their hands upon the vital strings of British life and politics, and to hold, dominate, and convulse, year after year, generation after generation, the politics of this powerful country."
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Fullofsurprises
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(Original post by ColinDent)
Well if the reports are true and May will be stepping down, possibly by the summer, then the chances of getting the WA through have just increased.
I do wonder if this changes anything - the issue was about bringing materially the same motion back multiple times. Of course, the politics look different now.
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nulli tertius
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(Original post by ByEeek)
Except in that only options L and M are actually doable. And option M only puts of the inevitable. When you only have 50p in your pocket, no amount of voting to own a Porche is going to get you a Porche.

The options available to us are limited by Europe, not Parliament.
The only true unicorn there is O. The others apart from K are really things that the EU has indicated it is willing to agree. In other words "we won't reopen" has never been literally true if we move towards the EU. K is an article of faith that Labour has received private assurances that it is doable.

The problem with L & M is that they are merely about process not outcome. What deal with be put in a referendum? What deal have we failed to get through until 48 hours before leaving?
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