Official Tory Leadership Election Thread 2019 Watch

Hazzer1998
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Official Tory Leadership Election Thread 2019


Since Thersa May has annouced that she would stand down if her EU withdrawal deal is passed the Conservative Party will begin the process of electing a new Leader and Prime Minster.

This thread is for discussion about the Leadership election whenever it starts within the next few weeks.

Who is Standing ?

Declared

Declined

Possible

Likely Contenders

Boris Johnson


Member of Parliament for Uxbridge and South Ruislip, Former Foreign Secretary and Mayor of London
Voted Leave
Very popular amongst the grassroots and is a "Hard" brexit supporter.

Hazzer's Odds: 5/1


Micheal Gove



Member of Parliament for Surrery Heath
Current Enviroment Secretary and former Cheif Whip, Justice and Education Secretary.
Voted Leave
Popular amongst members.

Hazzer's odds: 5/2

Sajid Javid



Member of Parliament for Bromsgove and current Home Secretary
Voted Remain
Could be a good bridge between Leavers and Remainers, however not popular among members

Hazzer's odds: 7/1

Dominic Raab


Member of Parliament for Esher and Walton and former Brexit Secretary and Justice Minster.
Voted Leave
Popular among members and would probably be the "Stop Boris" canidate.

Hazzer's Odds: 7/1

Jeremy Hunt



Member of Parliament for South West Surrery and current Foreign Secretary and former Health Secretary.
Voted Remain
Likely a good "Bridge" between Leavers and remainers but toxic to the public.

Hazzer's odds: 9/1

Amber Rudd



Member of Parliament for Hastings and Rye and current Work and Pensions Secretary and former Home Secretary
Voted Remain
Passionately Pro Remain and is sympathetic to a second vote, deeply unpopular with party members

Hazzer's odds: 20/1

Outsider Contenders

Liz Truss



Member of Parliament for South West Norfolk and current Cheif Secretary and former Justice Secretary.
Voted Remain
Born again leaver, popular with party members on economics and on social media.

Hazzer's odds: 80/1

Jacob Rees-Mogg



Member of Parliament for North East Somerset and Chairman of the Hardline Brexit Group "European Research Group".

Hazzer's odds: 100/1

Steve Baker



Member of Parliament for Wycombe and former Brexit Minster, Deputy Chair of the Hardline Brexit group "European Research Group.

Hazzer's odds: 80/1



How do you think will stand and who will you support ?
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Hazzer1998
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Tagging thoses will might be interested

Rakas21
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Rakas21
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The thread is a bit premature since it may not start until after we leave in May but i think Hunt and Gove will go to the membership.
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Burton Bridge
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If its Amber rudd I will wet myself laughing, both in genuine humour at the absurdity of it and then dispair at the reality of it.

My money is on Dominic Raab but let me be clear they are tories and I don't support any of them
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Hazzer1998
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(Original post by Rakas21)
The thread is a bit premature since it may not start until after we leave in May but i think Hunt and Gove will go to the membership.
Agreed, I expect the election to start either between mid April or as you said end of May but I expect movement from the potential candidates. Not sure Hunt will go to the membership but certainly Gove.
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Andrew97
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Out of those lot I’d prefer Gove.
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He's fresh, he's young, he's been chillaxing for a couple of years, he's keen to get his trotters in action!
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Burton Bridge
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(Original post by Rakas21)
The thread is a bit premature since it may not start until after we leave in May but i think Hunt and Gove will go to the membership.
Do you think we are going to leave?
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Rakas21
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(Original post by Hazzer1998)
Agreed, I expect the election to start either between mid April or as you said end of May but I expect movement from the potential candidates. Not sure Hunt will go to the membership but certainly Gove.
My thinking on Hunt and Gove is that there are a good 200 Tory MP's who are basically establishment ex remainers or leavers. Hunt will get the ex remain/Mayite type folk pretty quickly because there are only about 30 hard remoaners and although close in the first round, i suspect the ERG will be too stupid to rally behind a single candidate, hence Gove will hoover them up progressively.

Gove will have an initial membership lead.
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username3883544
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Quite rightly people are horrified at the possibility of Jeremy Corbyn being Prime Minister, given his views on defence in particular. However, there is one person who I would never want to have any say in decisions about sending troops to conflicts even more than Jeremy Corbyn, and that is Boris Johnson. Then there is Boris's racist comments, his not wanting historical sex offence allegations investigated, the garden bridge waste scandal, and his being the second most immoral person in public life after Ryan Giggs.

Hopefully the Tory MPs will have some sense and he will not be one of the two put forward to the membership.
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Rakas21
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(Original post by NJA)
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He's fresh, he's young, he's been chillaxing for a couple of years, he's keen to get his trotters in action!
We all laugh but Osbourne is definitely coming back at some point and Cameron has said he wants Foreign Sec privately.

Its not entirely without historical precedent. I think Baldwin or Bonnor Law were cabinet after a short stint at PM. Also think Gladstone was.
(Original post by Burton Bridge)
Do you think we are going to leave?
Yes, unless there is a shock result on Monday then May's deal will beat all others even if it fails tomorrow. It will then pass at the 4th attempt.
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Burton Bridge
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(Original post by Rakas21)
We all laugh but Osbourne is definitely coming back at some point and Cameron has said he wants Foreign Sec privately.

Its not entirely without historical precedent. I think Baldwin or Bonnor Law were cabinet after a short stint at PM. Also think Gladstone was.

Yes, unless there is a shock result on Monday then May's deal will beat all others even if it fails tomorrow. It will then pass at the 4th attempt.
It's it possible to keep having meaningful votes on the same motion. You can't make a meaningful vote meaningless mate.

I hope May's deal passes but if it don't, I honestly don't think Brexit will happen.
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nulli tertius
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(Original post by Rakas21)
...
It was another member of the Gladstone family not the MOG in the cabinet.

Ex PMs in the Cabinet:-

Balfour served in the cabinets of Asquith, Lloyd George and Baldwin

Baldwin served in the cabinet of MacDonald after being PM

MacDonald served in the cabinet of Baldwin after being PM

Chamberlain served in the cabinet of Churchill

Douglas Home served in the cabinet of Heath
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Rakas21
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One of the interesting things in these contests is not just who runs but who backs whom.

Truss is apparently allied to Javid however Javid may apparently be Gove's Chancellor. Given the Truss-Gove arguments of the past, that is amusing.
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(Original post by Rakas21)
We all laugh but Osbourne is definitely coming back at some point and Cameron has said he wants Foreign Sec privately.

Its not entirely without historical precedent.
Churchill.
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HoldThisL
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I'm a fan of Hunt, Raab and Truss but, if Rees-Mogg actually did stand for party leader, I think I'd have to vote for him just so I could say I did.
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paul514
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(Original post by Hazzer1998)
Official Tory Leadership Election Thread 2019


Since Thersa May has annouced that she would stand down if her EU withdrawal deal is passed the Conservative Party will begin the process of electing a new Leader and Prime Minster.

This thread is for discussion about the Leadership election whenever it starts within the next few weeks.

Who is Standing ?

Declared

Declined

Possible

Likely Contenders

Boris Johnson


Member of Parliament for Uxbridge and South Ruislip, Former Foreign Secretary and Mayor of London
Voted Leave
Very popular amongst the grassroots and is a "Hard" brexit supporter.

Hazzer's Odds: 5/1


Micheal Gove



Member of Parliament for Surrery Heath
Current Enviroment Secretary and former Cheif Whip, Justice and Education Secretary.
Voted Leave
Popular amongst members.

Hazzer's odds: 5/2

Sajid Javid



Member of Parliament for Bromsgove and current Home Secretary
Voted Remain
Could be a good bridge between Leavers and Remainers, however not popular among members

Hazzer's odds: 7/1

Dominic Raab


Member of Parliament for Esher and Walton and former Brexit Secretary and Justice Minster.
Voted Leave
Popular among members and would probably be the "Stop Boris" canidate.

Hazzer's Odds: 7/1

Jeremy Hunt



Member of Parliament for South West Surrery and current Foreign Secretary and former Health Secretary.
Voted Remain
Likely a good "Bridge" between Leavers and remainers but toxic to the public.

Hazzer's odds: 9/1

Amber Rudd



Member of Parliament for Hastings and Rye and current Work and Pensions Secretary and former Home Secretary
Voted Remain
Passionately Pro Remain and is sympathetic to a second vote, deeply unpopular with party members

Hazzer's odds: 20/1

Outsider Contenders

Liz Truss



Member of Parliament for South West Norfolk and current Cheif Secretary and former Justice Secretary.
Voted Remain
Born again leaver, popular with party members on economics and on social media.

Hazzer's odds: 80/1

Jacob Rees-Mogg



Member of Parliament for North East Somerset and Chairman of the Hardline Brexit Group "European Research Group".

Hazzer's odds: 100/1

Steve Baker



Member of Parliament for Wycombe and former Brexit Minster, Deputy Chair of the Hardline Brexit group "European Research Group.

Hazzer's odds: 80/1



How do you think will stand and who will you support ?
You have to see who puts themselves forward and the noise around who’s backing who before making a judgement.

Personally I would like Mogg but he’s ruled himself out so my next choice would be DD
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Burton Bridge
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(Original post by paul514)
Personally I would like Mogg but he’s ruled himself out so my next choice would be DD
I thought he would, he knows he would probably be up there if he were to put himself forward and also he knows he's too extreme to be a sucess if he gains leadership.
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username3883544
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(Original post by HoldThisL)
I'm a fan of Hunt, Raab and Truss but, if Rees-Mogg actually did stand for party leader, I think I'd have to vote for him just so I could say I did.
I can understand support for Jeremy Hunt, who has experience of running a tech company, and although hated as Health Secretary was effective in carrying out the policy he wanted (creeping NHS privatisation). Raab and Truss are only good if you compare them with Grayling, and whether we like it or not, the non-Tory press would be unforgiving of Liz Truss's private life.
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nulli tertius
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(Original post by DSutch)
I can understand support for Jeremy Hunt, who has experience of running a tech company, and although hated as Health Secretary was effective in carrying out the policy he wanted (creeping NHS privatisation). Raab and Truss are only good if you compare them with Grayling, and whether we like it or not, the non-Tory press would be unforgiving of Liz Truss's private life.
I suspect the press would not revisit Truss's old affair strongly for fear of charges of hypocrisy.
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