The Brexit Party going to crush the European Elections Watch

Stiff Little Fingers
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#41
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#41
Bold prediction but not one the polling supports despite you already talking about their numbers...

https://twitter.com/britainelects/st...620572163?s=19

Pretty much just replaced UKIP, and are as relevant as they were.
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Trotsky's Iceaxe
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#42
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#42
(Original post by Stiff Little Fingers)
Bold prediction but not one the polling supports despite you already talking about their numbers...

https://twitter.com/britainelects/st...620572163?s=19

Pretty much just replaced UKIP, and are as relevant as they were.
So currently polling on a lower percentage than UKIP obtained in the last European elections despite getting the new party/campaign launch bounce.

Come on 52%. Where the hell are you? Do you really want Brexit?
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DSilva
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#43
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(Original post by generallee)
Who saw that coming?

Will the Remoaners try to insist on a rerun, or something??

The biggest joke is how Continuity UK have split the Remain vote.
Their percentage share will be embarrassing. Farage is going to tear them a new one. THAT is how you conduct a political campaign, watch and learn, Remainer kiddies.

Above all, I can't wait till those like Umuna and Soubry get turfed out of Parliament at the next election and are kicked into well deserved obscurity. Get all the sympathetic media coverage from the London bubble, Remainer media you want, it will make no difference.

When you are hated, you are hated. Don't let the door hit your @rses on the way out, Anna, Chuka, Heidi, Luciana et al...
What are your thoughts on UKIP?
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ColinDent
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#44
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(Original post by DSilva)
What are your thoughts on UKIP?
They're finished, they were in 2016 just after Farage left.
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Ciel.
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#45
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(Original post by generallee)
Who saw that coming?

Will the Remoaners try to insist on a rerun, or something??

The biggest joke is how Continuity UK have split the Remain vote.
Their percentage share will be embarrassing. Farage is going to tear them a new one. THAT is how you conduct a political campaign, watch and learn, Remainer kiddies.

Above all, I can't wait till those like Umuna and Soubry get turfed out of Parliament at the next election and are kicked into well deserved obscurity. Get all the sympathetic media coverage from the London bubble, Remainer media you want, it will make no difference.

When you are hated, you are hated. Don't let the door hit your @rses on the way out, Anna, Chuka, Heidi, Luciana et al...
Lmfao, why do you sound so salty? You need to chill hun.
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generallee
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#46
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(Original post by DSilva)
What are your thoughts on UKIP?
They have always been nationalist, anti immigration, and anti EU, and in this they they share common cause with Farage. Since he left, however they have also become very anti Islamist, with the addition of Sargon and Dankula, and refusal to join in the witchhuntery of Tommy Robinson (who actually hasn't joined them, and is standing as an MEP as an Independent but you would never have guessed that to read the liberal mainstream media.)

This is essentially the same programme as the European Radical Right. The party that just got 10% in Spain, Gert Wilders vehicle, the AfD, the new version of Le Pen's party which seems to change its name every five minutes, the Sweden Democrats. So I see them as the UK version of those parties.

UKIP will not match them in electoral terms, in fact FPTP will ensure that they get nowhere. Elsewhere in Europe, under proportional representation the radical right gets electoral representation. The concerns they are a manifestation of are not going away heer or in the rest of Europe. Whatever Remainers try and pretend to themselves the EU is corrupt and decaying and deeply unpopular with everyone except the metropolitan middle classes of Europe. Brexit has proven it to be what we have always argued. inherently, structurally, inimical to democracy. No-one seriously doubts that now, not even rabid Remainers. So UKIP isn't going to fade away unless the issues it is a response to also fade away.

Farage is using them to differentiate. He is adapting the Blair playbook. Tommy Robinson is his Clause 4 if you like. Which is a very very clever strategy, if deeply unprincipled. Farage actually agrees with everything Tommy R says about the Islamisation of Europe. But he knows the wider electorate isn't prepared (yet) to accept that truth, and the way to gain electoral success in our deeply flawed electoral system is to lie about what you truly believe and pretend to be what you are not.

But this is in pursuit of his one overarching aim, in which he is sincere. Brexit. UKIP has a pro Brexit policy, but it is one of many. It has a radical right wing programme. Farage subordinates that programme in his attempt to achieve Brexit.
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generallee
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#47
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#47
To your first point, that isn't an argument.

To your second, what would be the point of persuading people to your point if view if both views are going to be disregarded when expressed as votes?
(Original post by Dez)
I'm not going to waste my time on this crap. These issues have been debated many times before, and it's clear you're very ignorant of the reality of the situation when you make statements like this.



What an absurdity. It's remainers fault that the only way hardnose Brexiteers can enforce their minority opinion is through violence? That makes no sense at all. If you want a no-deal burn-the-borders Brexit, then you need to convince people that it's a good idea, not enforce it via fascism.
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JinChang
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#48
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#48
BP is far more dangerous than UKIP to the establishment as it's more centrist.
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DSilva
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#49
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#49
(Original post by generallee)
They have always been nationalist, anti immigration, and anti EU, and in this they they share common cause with Farage. Since he left, however they have also become very anti Islamist, with the addition of Sargon and Dankula, and refusal to join in the witchhuntery of Tommy Robinson (who actually hasn't joined them, and is standing as an MEP as an Independent but you would never have guessed that to read the liberal mainstream media.)

This is essentially the same programme as the European Radical Right. The party that just got 10% in Spain, Gert Wilders vehicle, the AfD, the new version of Le Pen's party which seems to change its name every five minutes, the Sweden Democrats. So I see them as the UK version of those parties.

UKIP will not match them in electoral terms, in fact FPTP will ensure that they get nowhere. Elsewhere in Europe, under proportional representation the radical right gets electoral representation. The concerns they are a manifestation of are not going away heer or in the rest of Europe. Whatever Remainers try and pretend to themselves the EU is corrupt and decaying and deeply unpopular with everyone except the globalist elite and the metropolitan middle classes of Europe. Brexit has proven it to be what we have always argued. inherently, structurally, inimical to democracy. No-one seriously doubts that now, not even rabid Remainers. So UKIP isn't going to fade away unless the issues it is a response to also fade away.

Farage is using them to differentiate. He is adapting the Blair playbook. Tommy Robinson is his Clause 4 if you like. Which is a very very clever strategy, if deeply unprincipled. Farage actually agrees with everything Tommy R says about the Islamisation of Europe. But he knows the wider electorate isn't prepared (yet) to accept that truth, and the way to gain electoral success in our deeply flawed electoral system is to lie about what you truly believe and pretend to be what you are not.

But this is in pursuit of his one overarching aim, in which he is sincere. Brexit. UKIP has a pro Brexit policy, but it is one of many. It has a radical right wing programme. Farage subordinates that programme in his attempt to achieve Brexit.
Interesting post. It will be interesting to see if the Brexit Party will be a flash in the pan party or whether they can achieve what UKIP failed and build a substantive policy platform beyond the EU, although the party's name may be a clear indication that it's the former.

I also may disagree with Farage on most things, but you really can't deny his ability. Compare the Brexit party polling at near 30% to Change UK at 3%!

The Spanish elections are quite interesting too. Since 2008 we have seen the Centre Left being obliterated just about everywhere. Perhaps now, as the polticial fractures, we may see the same for the centre right.
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generallee
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#50
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Farage is a phenomenon and had been constantly underrated by the commentariat. Constantly.

You still see the same tired attack lines, but they are losing their lustre. The fact he want to Public School. How on earth can he help that?? Then there is " poor Nigel. He has never been elected as an MP despite standing x times."

It is an absurd observation, which entirely misses the point. Does anyone seriously doubt that if he had wanted an easy life he couldn't have found selection in some safe Tory seat, where the party machine assures the biggest morons going (and there are plenty of them in the shires) a political sinecure for an entire nothing career, as lobby fodder? Even Cabinet Ministers largely achieve little of lasting importance, they are in office for too short a time. He chose making a political difference over being an MP, and is probably more famous worldwide than all but a handful of MP's who occupy the greatest Offices of State. Apart from May herself, in fact, is there anyone at Westminster more famous than him and he hasn't even got a seat!?

There are literally hundreds of MP's who DID get elected, who could walk down any street in the country (maybe even in their own Constituency!) unrecognised. Who can say that of Farage? He is that rare thing, the politician as rock star. Why? I have no idea, the best I can't come up with is raw charisma, we can't define it, but we all recognise it when we see it.

It is much harder to get elected outside the mainstream in our FPTP system. These sneerers ought to try it. With nothing but his eloquence and drive he has had more influence of British Foreign Policy than most post war Foreign Secretaries.

And his career isn't over, he could even be at his peak.

One of the most gifted politicians of his generation. Even Cameron admitted that.


(Original post by DSilva)
Interesting post. It will be interesting to see if the Brexit Party will be a flash in the pan party or whether they can achieve what UKIP failed and build a substantive policy platform beyond the EU, although the party's name may be a clear indication that it's the former.

I also may disagree with Farage on most things, but you really can't deny his ability. Compare the Brexit party polling at near 30% to Change UK at 3%!

The Spanish elections are quite interesting too. Since 2008 we have seen the Centre Left being obliterated just about everywhere. Perhaps now, as the polticial fractures, we may see the same for the centre right.
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Bashtopher
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#51
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(Original post by generallee)
Farage is a phenomenon and had been constantly underrated by the commentariat. Constantly.

You still see the same tired attack lines, but they are losing their lustre. The fact he want to Public School. How on earth can he help that?? Then there is " poor Nigel. He has never been elected as an MP despite standing x times."

It is an absurd observation, which entirely misses the point. Does anyone seriously doubt that if he had wanted an easy life he couldn't have found selection in some safe Tory seat, where the party machine assures the biggest morons going (and there are plenty of them in the shires) a political sinecure for an entire nothing career, as lobby fodder? Even Cabinet Ministers largely achieve little of lasting importance, they are in office for too short a time. He chose making a political difference over being an MP, and is probably more famous worldwide than all but a handful of MP's who occupy the greatest Offices of State. Apart from May herself, in fact, is there anyone at Westminster more famous than him and he hasn't even got a seat!?

There are literally hundreds of MP's who DID get elected, who could walk down any street in the country (maybe even in their own Constituency!) unrecognised. Who can say that of Farage? He is that rare thing, the politician as rock star. Why? I have no idea, the best I can't come up with is raw charisma, we can't define it, but we all recognise it when we see it.

It is much harder to get elected outside the mainstream in our FPTP system. These sneerers ought to try it. With nothing but his eloquence and drive he has had more influence of British Foreign Policy than most post war Foreign Secretaries.

And his career isn't over, he could even be at his peak.

One of the most gifted politicians of his generation. Even Cameron admitted that.
Some of what you say is true, other things are simply wrong.

First, Farage is definitely a phenomenon. He's made the biggest impact to British politics since Blair, and arguably even bigger. His political acumen in this era of shoddy politicians is second to none.

Second, people mention him being a public schoolboy for one huge reason; namely, that he talks about sticking it to the "elite", which he is very much part of. Part of his charisma is that he is able to fool a vast number of the electorate that he is the average British guy, simply by being interviewed in pubs. That has been lapped up by literally millions of people.

Third, and as above, Farage is a fantastic liar. Some people have just got the knack - and he has it. That, combined with his enthusiasm and ability to exacerbate people's deep seated xenophobia, is why he's so effective. He's made xenophobia a dominant social norm amazingly well, and normalised a feeling that generations have tried to subdue because what it can lead to.

Fourth, he didn't choose to be more effective not as an MP. Someone who had sought election 7 times clearly wanted to be an MP. Fair enough he's been more effective than any elected parliamentarian, but it is beyond absurd to say he chose this. Instead, he's made the most of not being elected. Weird to represent this in any other way since it does not detract from his achievements.

Lastly, it's a shame he's been this effective. He's making this country poorer while, simultaneously, having a regressive effect on society. He shouldn't be idolised, or even commended. It should only be recognised that he is very effective at what he does.
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Redfords
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#52
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I believe the issue is there is more than one remain based party. The Brexit party obviously wants to leave therefore Leave voters will vote for them but it would be interesting to compare how many voters they get compared to the remain parties. I also believe the marketing of the Brexit party has been extremely successful with a constant stream of members who are running
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Redfords
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#53
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I also believe that if/ when the Torries join the European Elections they will take a percentage of the Brexit Parties Votes.
(Original post by Redfords)
I believe the issue is there is more than one remain based party. The Brexit party obviously wants to leave therefore Leave voters will vote for them but it would be interesting to compare how many voters they get compared to the remain parties. I also believe the marketing of the Brexit party has been extremely successful with a constant stream of members who are running
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generallee
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#54
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#54
Well, I will reply in kind... Some of what you say is true, other things are simply wrong.

I agree that the fact he is a public schoolboy understandably sticks in the craw of many, and he is obviously from an elite background, and is no man of the people.

But I think to so emphasise this is to miss the whole point of his appeal. What people instantly recognise about him is that he is comfortable in his own skin, and above all he says what he actually believes. (Which isn't to say that he isn't a consummate liar too, I agree with you on that). The hail fellow well met, pint down the pub thing may be an act, but the very fact he can make it is telling. He doesn't care that people might think of him as a drunken sot.

We are in an age of politicians who are schooled what to say twithin an inch of their lives. There are image consultants briefing them, focus groups parsing the party line to take, they are terrified of saying something politically incorrect so they say nothing, they lie and lie and lie and everyone can see them doing it. Ultimately Farage is sincere. He wants us out of the EU and has dedicated his life to it. What did Cameron believe in? Blair? Brown? May? Political power for its own sake, that was it. That is why when they got to the top of the slippery poll they achieved little that was positive, to countermand all that was and is negative in their legacies. They didn't know what they want to do with the power they got, so surprise surprise, nothing much they wanted happened.

One man's "xenophobia" is another's soft nationalism. Farage believes (and I agree with him and so does the majority of the population in poll after poll) that there has been too much immigration in recent years. This was not discussable in polite circles before he came along. You deprecate it, I applaud him.

Sure he stood and failed to be an MP many times, and sure he will have wanted to win (although must have known he wouldn't). But it isn't an issue for him, I think we both agree on that. And indeed his career ought to be used as a prime exemplar of the decline in Parliament as an institution in the country.

We'll have to agree to disagree on your last point of course.


(Original post by Bashtopher)
Some of what you say is true, other things are simply wrong.

First, Farage is definitely a phenomenon. He's made the biggest impact to British politics since Blair, and arguably even bigger. His political acumen in this era of shoddy politicians is second to none.

Second, people mention him being a public schoolboy for one huge reason; namely, that he talks about sticking it to the "elite", which he is very much part of. Part of his charisma is that he is able to fool a vast number of the electorate that he is the average British guy, simply by being interviewed in pubs. That has been lapped up by literally millions of people.

Third, and as above, Farage is a fantastic liar. Some people have just got the knack - and he has it. That, combined with his enthusiasm and ability to exacerbate people's deep seated xenophobia, is why he's so effective. He's made xenophobia a dominant social norm amazingly well, and normalised a feeling that generations have tried to subdue because what it can lead to.

Fourth, he didn't choose to be more effective not as an MP. Someone who had sought election 7 times clearly wanted to be an MP. Fair enough he's been more effective than any elected parliamentarian, but it is beyond absurd to say he chose this. Instead, he's made the most of not being elected. Weird to represent this in any other way since it does not detract from his achievements.

Lastly, it's a shame he's been this effective. He's making this country poorer while, simultaneously, having a regressive effect on society. He shouldn't be idolised, or even commended. It should only be recognised that he is very effective at what he does.
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username3973192
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#55
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#55
(Original post by Dez)
No doubt the newly formed Brexit Party will be great representatives of the United Kingdom, much like UKIP were. Barely bothering to show up, making fools of themselves when they do, and generally being the laughing stock of Europe, but managing a pretty decent slice of corruption at the same time.
Exactly.
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Bashtopher
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#56
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(Original post by generallee)
Well, I will reply in kind... Some of what you say is true, other things are simply wrong.

I agree that the fact he is a public schoolboy understandably sticks in the craw of many, and he is obviously from an elite background, and is no man of the people.

But I think to so emphasise this is to miss the whole point of his appeal. What people instantly recognise about him is that he is comfortable in his own skin, and above all he says what he actually believes. (Which isn't to say that he isn't a consummate liar too, I agree with you on that). The hail fellow well met, pint down the pub thing may be an act, but the very fact he can make it is telling. He doesn't care that people might think of him as a drunken sot.

We are in an age of politicians who are schooled what to say twithin an inch of their lives. There are image consultants briefing them, focus groups parsing the party line to take, they are terrified of saying something politically incorrect so they say nothing, they lie and lie and lie and everyone can see them doing it. Ultimately Farage is sincere. He wants us out of the EU and has dedicated his life to it. What did Cameron believe in? Blair? Brown? May? Political power for its own sake, that was it. That is why when they got to the top of the slippery poll they achieved little that was positive, to countermand all that was and is negative in their legacies. They didn't know what they want to do with the power they got, so surprise surprise, nothing much they wanted happened.

One man's "xenophobia" is another's soft nationalism. Farage believes (and I agree with him and so does the majority of the population in poll after poll) that there has been too much immigration in recent years. This was not discussable in polite circles before he came along. You deprecate it, I applaud him.

Sure he stood and failed to be an MP many times, and sure he will have wanted to win (although must have known he wouldn't). But it isn't an issue for him, I think we both agree on that. And indeed his career ought to be used as a prime exemplar of the decline in Parliament as an institution in the country.

We'll have to agree to disagree on your last point of course.


(Original post by Bashtopher)
I'll take your use of my first line as a compliment, with imitation being the sincerest form of flattery and all. Yet, nothing you said leads to anything I said being "simply wrong".

Nevertheless, it's interesting you say that his bloke-down-the-pub demeanour may be an act, and that's he might be a consummate liar, but that he's comfortable in his own skin. If he's lying and putting on an act, trying to sever himself from an elite that he's part of, then he's clearly not comfortable in his own skin! He is anything but sincere and, again, it's absurd to claim it with what you have acknowledged.

On sincerity, I can tell you where Farage stands on the EU, but little else. In private lobbies he speaks of basing the NHS on insurance claims like the US, but in public he backtracks and says he wants a public NHS free at the point of entry. Which is it? I can tell you where Cameron, Blair and Brown stood on many things. Blair and Brown in particular had a strong vision which they mapped out quite clearly. They both did a number of amazing things for the country (Human Rights Act, Good Friday Agreement (you know, the thing that hard brexiteers are so desperate to protect that they're stopping brexit), devolution of powers, Sure Start centres, nationalisation of RBS etc). Sure they made some bad decisions, such as Iraq War and, with Brown, I guess selling the gold. But which leader hasn't, even the omni influential Thatcher introduced the poll tax!

Funnily enough, just like Farage, I can tell you where they all stand in relation to the EU. They're very clear on that too. It's very easy for a politician to be clear on a single issue, a lot harder for politicians to have broad vision. Farage clearly doesn't have the latter. I mean, he didn't even know or care how the UK should look after brexit, and he just packed his bags.

Yes, Farage is a nationalist. He also plays on people's xenophobia to get what he wants. He's not a nationalist instead of playing on xenophobia, he uses the latter to realise the former. He says he feels awkward sitting on a train hearing foreign languages. He said he'd be concerned if Romanians moved in next door to him because of Romanian criminality (he backtracked on this too. Maybe because it wasn't pc, or because he didn't feel comfortable in his own skin? Either way, he's being insincere). He unveiled a poster of Syrian refugees with the headline "breaking point" - imagery literally akin to Nazi propaganda against Jewish people (not even an exaggeration). He even defended the use of the racial slur ch**ky by an ex-ukipper. Pretty clear examples of xenophobia.

I'm not even sure if Farage is xenophobic. He might be too smart for it. He'll just say anything to leave the EU (he genuinely blamed immigration for being late for a speech!) I get the feeling he's more akin to a heroin dealer that doesn't take drugs. Not sure if that's worse as he's knowingly inflicting the scourge of xenophobia.

And immigration often isn't addressed in "sensible circles" because sensible circles know that our economy depends on high immigration. That immigration has helped social norms develop against racism and xenophobia (despite creating small pockets of unavoidable resentment). Sensible circles know that immigrants are used as scapegoats, much like the EU. Sensible circles also know that, in light of the above, non-EU net migration has been higher than EU net migration for decades! Immigration is only an issue for nationalists and xenophobes and, unfortunately, they found an articulate voice in the insincere Farage.

Farage isn't needed to highlight the imperfections of parliament. The fact that parliament is attempting to avoid no deal/hard brexit is actually a testament to it's functionality. No parliament ought to vote to make the country poorer.

And yes, we just disagree on the fact that you think someone who has stoked xenophobia and is actively making the country poorer is a good thing. I think it is a bad thing. The man is socially regressive and I can't ever support that. I mean, he even said that women should sit in a corner to breastfeed and ought to breastfeed less ostentatiously! Have you ever seen a woman breastfeed ostentatiously?!

The man is a **** and deserves no plaudits.
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Mister Fantastic
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#57
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(Original post by Notoriety)
I am just going off the people I know and see around me, what more can I do.

They love watching England footie, have a bulldog tattooed on their back, their missus gives them earache, they love a Saturday night curry, and they want the foreigners gone.
Wow! Really?
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revolver777
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#58
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I don't want them to be in a position to crush anything because as far as I'm concerned we should have left the EU by March 29th. But because it has come to this I'll be voting for them and I hope they win as many seats as possible. Just to ram home the fact there are a lot of people out there who don't want a green light scenario for the government to go back on ANY future public vote.
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Vinny C
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#59
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(Original post by ColinDent)
I know that, Notoriety doesn't though.
Ah... this is where you've all been hiding. Had to laugh... a landslide swing to Lib Dem and the two main parties try to convince everyone that it's because they haven't delivered Brexit as promised. Surprised no-one sat there clearing their throat bhhh… sht! Seems to be Farage getting his butt kicked so far.
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Vinny C
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(Original post by Trotsky's Iceaxe)
So currently polling on a lower percentage than UKIP obtained in the last European elections despite getting the new party/campaign launch bounce.

Come on 52%. Where the hell are you? Do you really want Brexit?
You still don't get it, do you? Half of that 52% voted for the promised fields of sunny delight which have proven to be a complete fantasy. Lib Dems could have made an even bigger killing but half of the Northern wards never even fielded a Lib Dem candidate, come on Vince! Wakey, wakey!
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