How much seats will the SNP win? Watch

BraemarEwan
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Election calculus says in its prediction that the SNP will win 56 seats and wide out the Conservatives in Scotland.

What do you think?
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ThePootisPower
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Not surprised. If brexit happens I’m pretty sure SNP will get a political blank cheque of support for indy ref 2.
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L i b
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(Original post by BraemarEwan)
Election calculus says in its prediction that the SNP will win 56 seats and wide out the Conservatives in Scotland.

What do you think?
The last time the SNP pulled off something similar, they won almost 50% of the vote in Scotland. Recently they've been averaging in the high 30s. Margin-of-error stuff with the 2017 result.

By all means, I think the opposition should've made more progress in the last year-and-a-bit to make serious inroads, but they'll have target seats where the SNP has perilously small minorities. Without a significant upward shift, they're very much in play. Tactical voting on the pro-union side also reaped rewards for the SNP's opponents last time - presumably this trend will continue.

That said, I think it's pretty difficult to predict any election with any sort of certainty before one has even been called (or three years out from the 2022 election mandated by the Fixed Term Parliaments Act, however you want to look at it).

The main policy changes I can see making a difference are how much the SNP pushes the independence message (benefits the Tories), how much the Tories alienate their Eurosceptic core support (can cost them probably 5 percentage points in a result, I would guess) and how much Labour looks like a credible opposition UK-wide. I'd also imagine the Tories will be going in to any future election with a new leader, which is a huge unknown.
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Quady
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(Original post by BraemarEwan)
Election calculus says in its prediction that the SNP will win 56 seats and wide out the Conservatives in Scotland.

What do you think?
Seats where?
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TensorTympani
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(Original post by BraemarEwan)
Election calculus says in its prediction that the SNP will win 56 seats and wide out the Conservatives in Scotland.

What do you think?
The popularity of the SNP has fallen in Scotland as you can see from the previous general election seats to the current general election seats, so I think maybe less than 40 and above 30.
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Rakas21
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(Original post by BraemarEwan)
Election calculus says in its prediction that the SNP will win 56 seats and wide out the Conservatives in Scotland.

What do you think?
The forecasts for Scotland simply reflect universal swing methodology. Since the Tories are forecast to lose vote share across the UK they are forecast to do so in Scotland.

My own expectation in Scotland is that three parties above 20% is not sustainable but the SNP have no real threat. So I would probably expect the Tory and SNP vote to hold up with Lab and Lib seats being those to fall.
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