Peterborough by election - Brexit Party for the win? Watch

Reality Check
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#41
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#41
(Original post by QE2)
It isn't.
No. It's lovely though.
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Dez
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#42
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#42
(Original post by generallee)
Fair enough, that is a view. I am not going to say you don't have much feel for British politics, but it really seems it. To my mind there is no way on God's earth the Tories are going to win this seat.

Words are cheap, though. Fancy a bet on the outcome? If so PM me.
It's either going to be Conservatives or Labour, no other party stands a chance of gaining a majority. And the Labour candidate is likely going to get a thrashing at the ballot box because of her predecessor's actions (which is a bit unfair IMO, it's not her fault she got deselected in the first place), so the Tories will likely end up ahead.

Plus a split ballot caused by a large number of smaller parties running (there are 8 candidates confirmed already) is more likely to benefit the Conservatives than Labour. I'm not putting any money on this though, I'm not that certain of the outcome.
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Napp
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#43
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#43
(Original post by generallee)
I wasn't throwing a strop, I was mentioning the high number of EU migrants within the city because it is politically germane in my view.

And then pointing that out when you went off on one about how racy racy racist I was being in stating political facts.
To bring you back to your last post, your views are not facts. They are views.
When did I call you a racist in this discussion sorry?
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generallee
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#44
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#44
Agreed, and in fairness the Lib Dems might swing it . Finally someone who understands British politics!
(Original post by Good bloke)
This election is likely to be a classic one issue protest vote. Conservative Brexiteers have no reason not to vote for the Brexit party at the moment, and neither do Labour Brexiteers. Labour will lose votes because of both the outgoing MP and because of Corbyn, and the Tories will lose votes because of May.

It could come down to a race between the pro-EU LibDems (remember them? They are led by the Night King) and the Farage party, just like the EU elections.
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Good bloke
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#45
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#45
(Original post by Napp)
this is still rather far down the list of egregious ones.
I must make sure I don't live anywhere near you, lest I leave myself open to the minor indiscretion of being dobbed in for your naughtiness. I cannot see how trying to get your lodger and constituent in trouble with the police for a crime you committed is in any way minor.
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Napp
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#46
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#46
(Original post by generallee)
Bore off, son.
😂😂
I rest my case m’lud.
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Reality Check
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#47
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#47
(Original post by Napp)
To bring you back to your last post, your views are not facts. They are views.
When did I call you a racist in this discussion sorry?

(Original post by Napp)
Uhuh to your first paragraph...
I mean your disgust for anyone isn’t white is well known here but we’re talking about Europeans - which the British are.
Uhuh why are my “feelings” on trial here? I was simply saying you have absolutely no basis for your risible little claims and thus to stop throwing a strop over anyone who doesn’t speak in an English accent.

It's rather ironic that one of your favourite insults is to accuse people of not being able to read properly.

You're not having a great morning here, are you?
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Good bloke
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#48
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#48
(Original post by Dez)
It's either going to be Conservatives or Labour, no other party stands a chance of gaining a majority.
It's a by-election.
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generallee
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#49
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#49
This will be a single issue (Brexit) protest by election in which the normal rules of the two party system don't apply. Classic upset territory.

The Tories are going to melt down. Why should ANYONE vote for them? Your view that they will win it shows no understanding of how unpopular the party is now even with its own members and activists let alone floating voters!

It is a Labour seat, but their history here is going to hurt them and they are going to lose working class Brexiteers to Farage.

The Lib Dems cold garner the Remainer vote, and sneak it. In which case Labour will be squeezed.

Good Bloke nailed it, the Brexit Party or the Lib Dems for the win.


(Original post by Dez)
It's either going to be Conservatives or Labour, no other party stands a chance of gaining a majority. And the Labour candidate is likely going to get a thrashing at the ballot box because of her predecessor's actions (which is a bit unfair IMO, it's not her fault she got deselected in the first place), so the Tories will likely end up ahead.

Plus a split ballot caused by a large number of smaller parties running (there are 8 candidates confirmed already) is more likely to benefit the Conservatives than Labour. I'm not putting any money on this though, I'm not that certain of the outcome.
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Dez
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#50
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#50
(Original post by Good bloke)
It's a by-election.
I don't see that being sufficient for a party with zero representation at any level of UK politics to gain a seat in Parliament. I could see BP comfortably making a 3rd place finish (maybe 2nd), but there's little chance they'll overcome the status quo.
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generallee
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#51
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#51
We are living in an age in which the normal rules of politics do not apply.


(Original post by Dez)
I don't see that being sufficient for a party with zero representation at any level of UK politics to gain a seat in Parliament. I could see BP comfortably making a 3rd place finish (maybe 2nd), but there's little chance they'll overcome the status quo.
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Reality Check
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#52
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#52
(Original post by generallee)
This will be a single issue (Brexit) protest by election in which the normal rules of the two party system don't apply. Classic upset territory.

The Tories are going to melt down. Why should ANYONE vote for them? Your view that they will win it shows no understanding of how unpopular the party is now even with its own members and activists let alone floating voters!

It is a Labour seat, but their history here is going to hurt them and they are going to lose working class Brexiteers to Farage.

The Lib Dems cold garner the Remainer vote, and sneak it. In which case Labour will be squeezed.

Good Bloke nailed it, the Brexit Party or the Lib Dems for the win.
That seat does include rural areas to the north and east, where you could put up a pig in a blue rosette, so I don't think it's quite as straightforward as the Tories being 'obliterated' (I'm not doing a napp and suggesting that was your word, by the way). I agree with your general analysis though.
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Dez
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#53
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#53
(Original post by generallee)
This will be a single issue (Brexit) protest by election in which the normal rules of the two party system don't apply. Classic upset territory.
Perhaps, but Newport didn't see that last month (though that is a remain constituency). Most voters are not swing voters, they'll just pick red or blue every single time without even thinking about it. Peterborough doesn't have enough swing voters for a completely new party to parachute into the seat.

(Original post by generallee)
The Tories are going to melt down. Why should ANYONE vote for them? Your view that they will win it shows no understanding of how unpopular the party is now even with its own members and activists let alone floating voters!
The Tories could put up a a bag of poo as their constituency candidate and they'd probably still get 20% of the vote.

(Original post by generallee)
It is a Labour seat, but their history here is going to hurt them and they are going to lose working class Brexiteers to Farage.
You're certainly right there, but again, I don't think the voter swing will be big enough for an outsider party to get a majority.

(Original post by generallee)
The Lib Dems cold garner the Remainer vote, and sneak it.
That's probably the absolute least likely outcome of all.
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ThePootisPower
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#54
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Thinking more on it, we’re certainly gonna have a close election.

Labour will lose Remainer votes to Lib Dem.

The Brexit Party will take Leave votes from Labour, and therefore Labours almost certainly going to struggle as it gets squeezed from two positions.

The tories had 46% of the vote in the last By election but I think a good chunk of those are gonna go to the Brexit Party so they will also find it difficult to take over the constituency.

Note I’m assuming that the Greens and Change UK aren’t going to field candidates: if they do, it’s almost certainly gonna split the LD vote and hand the constituency to the Brexit Party or Tories on a silver platter.
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Good bloke
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#55
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(Original post by Dez)
I don't see that being sufficient for a party with zero representation at any level of UK politics to gain a seat in Parliament.
To the voters that won't be important. It is an opportunity to be heard, and the outcome is only relevant for a shortish time. By-elections have often been won by people who would have no hope in a general election, and who lost at the next one. The Liberals are famous for it, and some have even lost the seat within a few weeks or months of winning it.
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Dez
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#56
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#56
(Original post by ThePootisPower)
Note I’m assuming that the Greens and Change UK aren’t going to field candidates: if they do, it’s almost certainly gonna split the LD vote and hand the constituency to the Brexit Party or Tories on a silver platter.
Greens have already confirmed a candidate. As far as I know there's been no word from CUK if they plan on standing for election or not though.
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Reality Check
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#57
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(Original post by Good bloke)
To the voters that won't be important. It is an opportunity to be heard, and the outcome is only relevant for a shortish time. By-elections have often been won by people who would have no hope in a general election, and who lost at the next one. The Liberals are famous for it, and some have even lost the seat within a few weeks or months of winning it.
Yes, exactly. Enough to send a message without having to worry about there being any real longterm ramifications.
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generallee
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#58
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#58
Gonna sum up my response to all you say here in two points:

1. This by election (IMO) cannot be judged by the past. Politics is moving at break neck speed, and is incredibly, mind blowingly febrile, we have yet to see this reflected electorally. Sure FPTP props up the Tory/Labour duopoly, even though both parties are increasingly unpopular and that system no longer serves our democratic needs, arguably. In a General Election what you say will be relevant. But as I keep saying this is a by election.

2. The result will hinge on who can hoover up the Remainer vote and appear to be the likely winner, or if it remains split. The Lib Dems are masters at doing that, they have form, that is why I say this. Of course if any of the Remainer Parties can take an overwhelmingly lead in the campaign, the Greens, Change UK, even Labour, they could win it.

Utterly extraordinary things can happen. Look at Galloway's victory in Bradford. Who saw that coming?
(Original post by Dez)
Perhaps, but Newport didn't see that last month (though that is a remain constituency). Most voters are not swing voters, they'll just pick red or blue every single time without even thinking about it. Peterborough doesn't have enough swing voters for a completely new party to parachute into the seat.



The Tories could put up a a bag of poo as their constituency candidate and they'd probably still get 20% of the vote.



You're certainly right there, but again, I don't think the voter swing will be big enough for an outsider party to get a majority.



That's probably the absolute least likely outcome of all.
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generallee
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#59
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She'passed away two years ago, but thanks for the suggestion.
(Original post by JewishFish&)
suck yur mum
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Laurence010401
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#60
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#60
Isn’t the Brexit party just UKIP with a different name?
Or is it s completely new party?
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