Conservatives Poll 3rd Place in General Election Poll Watch

z-hog
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#21
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#21
(Original post by SHallowvale)
Would it help you to know that the same organisations behind these polls also found huge Conservative leads over Labour earlier this year?
Did they really, well done to them for taking the money in exchange for such a useless product but if someone wants to commission them it keeps everyone in work. This poll is absolutely useless too, what does anyone get out of it? The Evening Standard, with Osborne on board, is pretty much anti-Brexit and May these days, the Torygraph isn't what it used to be either. Room for manoeuvre there.

Anyway, you yourself questioned the timing with the opening line:

Yes, that reads "General Election Poll" not "European Election Poll".
Yes, let's rub our eyes. It's not even as if there is a General Election in sight so... who cares?
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SHallowvale
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#22
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#22
(Original post by z-hog)
Did they really, well done to them for taking the money in exchange for such a useless product but if someone wants to commission them it keeps everyone in work. This poll is absolutely useless too, what does anyone get out of it? The Evening Standard, with Osborne on board, is pretty much anti-Brexit and May these days, the Torygraph isn't what it used to be either. Room for manoeuvre there.

Anyway, you yourself questioned the timing with the opening line:

Yes, let's rub our eyes. It's not even as if there is a General Election in sight so... who cares?
People are interested in opinion polls; this is one of the reasons why they are done. They also act as an indication of how popular, or unpopular, the main political parties are doing.

This really isn't rocket science. You're only asking these questions because you're upset that the team you support is losing.

You've misinterpreted the first line in my OP; we've seen recently the Conservatives polling third, or fourth, place in European elections. We haven't seen the same thing in a general election poll for decades, hence my comment.
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z-hog
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(Original post by SHallowvale)
People are interested in opinion polls; this is one of the reasons why they are done.
Well, I'm not interested because it means nothing at all in terms of what will happen at the next General election. Within six months, this poll may have been made as redundant as the one you mention earlier, this is also a questionable time for it. Even the ones carried out before an election are mostly rubbish, the only one that predicted the loss of the Conservative majority at the last was binned for being so out of step with everybody else.

What if it's a way of diverting the gaze as much as possible from the much more relevant poll on the upcoming (and equally useless) MEP elections? The one with Brexit well ahead, isn't that what we should be talking about instead? Or is this the way to not talk about it? Where do the Barclays brothers stand with regard to Brexit and May, do we know anything about that? We know they don't like throwing money away.

Anyway, you could well be right and this could all be very innocent and inconsequential. All I'm saying is that we can never be sure these days.
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SHallowvale
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#24
(Original post by z-hog)
Well, I'm not interested because it means nothing at all in terms of what will happen at the next General election. Within six months, this poll may have been made as redundant as the one you mention earlier, this is also a questionable time for it. Even the ones carried out before an election are mostly rubbish, the only one that predicted the loss of the Conservative majority at the last was binned for being so out of step with everybody else.

What if it's a way of diverting the gaze as much as possible from the much more relevant poll on the upcoming (and equally useless) MEP elections? The one with Brexit well ahead, isn't that what we should be talking about instead? Or is this the way to not talk about it? Where do the Barclays brothers stand with regard to Brexit and May, do we know anything about that? We know they don't like throwing money away.

Anyway, you could well be right and this could all be very innocent and inconsequential. All I'm saying is that we can never be sure these days.
These polls aren't used to determine what will happen in the next general election (assuming there will be no snap poll anytime soon). They are there to track party approval/support. The ones carried out in the run up to elections are used to predict the results. Generally speaking their voting sharing predictions are reasonably accurate, although seat projection isn't.

All the polls which I gave in my OP were run in unison with polls done for the European elections. So no, there isn't some conspiracy to divert attention away from that election. In fact if you paid attention to thel media you'd realise that people are talking about this:

BBC
Sky
Guardian
Express
Reuters

Your skepticism is severely misplaced.
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z-hog
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#25
(Original post by SHallowvale)
These polls aren't used to determine what will happen in the next general election (assuming there will be no snap poll anytime soon). They are there to track party approval/support.
Hang about, the title says General Election Poll. What's the connection then?
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paul514
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#26
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(Original post by SHallowvale)
Yes, that reads "General Election Poll" not "European Election Poll".

For the first time since May 1994, the Conservative Party has polled third place in a general election opinion poll.

The poll run on the 9th of May by ComRes finds voting intention, compared to the results of the 2017 election, to be:

Lab: 27% (-13%),
BRX: 20% (+20%),
Con: 19% (-23.4%),
LDem: 14% (+6.6%),
CHUK: 7% (+7%),
Grn: 5% (+3.4%),
UKIP: 3% (+1.2%),

with a FPTP projection of seats:

Lab: 330 (+68),
Con: 112 (-206),
LDem: 79 (+67),
SNP: 53 (+18),
BRX: 51 (+51),
PC: 4 (=),
Grn: 2 (+1),
Ind: 1 (+1).

A similar poll by Opinium puts the Conservatives on 2nd place with 22% and the Brexit Party on 3rd place with 21%.

This is pretty crazy **** considering the Conservatives polled at 50% (25% points ahead of Labour) in the days after the announcement of the 2017 election.
I saw the poll and I can tell you right now in an election that wouldn’t be the result.

Firstly it’s way too harsh on the Tory’s even if sod all changes and secondly by the time the next general election happens it will be all change with a withdrawal agreement put to bed one way or another with a new leader.
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SHallowvale
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#27
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#27
(Original post by z-hog)
Hang about, the title says General Election Poll. What's the connection then?
Did you not read the rest of that paragraph?

These polls aren't being used to predict what will happen in 2022; it's far too early for that and things can of course change. They are meant to track main party approval (or disapproval) and give an idea of what sort of share of the votes the parties would receive in the event of a snap election.

(Felt this was similar to a reply I'd send you paul514)
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z-hog
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#28
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(Original post by SHallowvale)
Did you not read the rest of that paragraph?

These polls aren't being used to predict what will happen in 2022; it's far too early for that and things can of course change. They are meant to track main party approval (or disapproval) and give an idea of what sort of share of the votes the parties would receive in the event of a snap election.
Yes, you titled it a General Election Poll because you wish there was one. Only that gives it any relevance.
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Dez
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#29
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(Original post by z-hog)
Well, I'm not interested because it means nothing at all in terms of what will happen at the next General election.
So why did you even bother replying to this thread?
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z-hog
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(Original post by Dez)
So why did you even bother replying to this thread?
To help tackle the spreading of manipulative misinformation in this world, to your obvious dismay. Terrible, innit?
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Dez
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(Original post by z-hog)
To help tackle the spreading of manipulative misinformation in this world, to your obvious dismay. Terrible, innit?
Tell me, what "misinformation" are you referring to? Are you suggesting that the poll results were faked?
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SHallowvale
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#32
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#32
(Original post by z-hog)
Yes, you titled it a General Election Poll because you wish there was one. Only that gives it any relevance.
Personally I'm indifferent to whether there will be a snap election.

These polls gives us an indication of who people would vote for if there were a general election today/tomorrow/soon, hence why we refer to them as general election polls. None of this is difficult to grasp, although I guess some people need more help understanding this than others.


(Original post by Dez)
So why did you even bother replying to this thread?
They're just upset that the Conservatives have been polling badly.
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paul514
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#33
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(Original post by SHallowvale)
Did you not read the rest of that paragraph?

These polls aren't being used to predict what will happen in 2022; it's far too early for that and things can of course change. They are meant to track main party approval (or disapproval) and give an idea of what sort of share of the votes the parties would receive in the event of a snap election.

(Felt this was similar to a reply I'd send you paul514)
Well yea sure but there is zero chance of an election happening under today’s circumstances
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SHallowvale
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#34
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#34
(Original post by paul514)
Well yea sure but there is zero chance of an election happening under today’s circumstances
Er, okay? Not really the point of this thread.
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MrDystopia
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Pretty astonishing to think about. What's more astonishing is the voting intention behind TBP being the one in second place. Pure protest vote I imagine given they actually have no policies.
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z-hog
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(Original post by MrDystopia)
Pretty astonishing to think about. What's more astonishing is the voting intention behind TBP being the one in second place. Pure protest vote I imagine given they actually have no policies.
It is a protest vote and as for policies... what policies do they need to have? This is a pointless exercise, sending in a few MEPs who will have no voice on anything until October and beyond. What policies are required, what are the policies of Con or Lab at this election?

Only point to this, and at the insistence of the EU, is to keep the UK tied in hoping for a reversal of Brexit somehow. Can somebody please explain what other purpose this upcoming election serves?
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DSilva
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(Original post by z-hog)
I spent just about that long clicking on the links in the OP and there's no mention of the ST in it. I don't care about it, it's totally pointless and maybe the Telegraph push a Remain line these days. What do you think made them commission it, any idea? Trying to make the Tories look good or bad?
The Telegraph push a remain line? 😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂 😂😂😂😂

What an absolute numpty you are. They have been quite possibly the staunchest advocates of Brexit.

But everything is always some sort of conspiracy to you.
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z-hog
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(Original post by DSilva)
The Telegraph push a remain line? 😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂 😂😂😂😂

What an absolute numpty you are. They have been quite possibly the staunchest advocates of Brexit.

But everything is always some sort of conspiracy to you.
There's no need to be rude, if I don't know what the Barclays brothers make of Brexit or May that is factual. If you know them so much better than I do, good for you. This thread is very mixed up, glad there wan nothing juicier for you to bite.
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Napp
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(Original post by z-hog)
There's no need to be rude, if I don't know what the Barclays brothers make of Brexit or May that is factual. If you know them so much better than I do, good for you. This thread is very mixed up, glad there wan nothing juicier for you to bite.
The owners are fairly immaterial in what they believe, especially those two weirdos, the Telegraph has been Europhobic for years.
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DSilva
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(Original post by z-hog)
There's no need to be rude, if I don't know what the Barclays brothers make of Brexit or May that is factual. If you know them so much better than I do, good for you. This thread is very mixed up, glad there wan nothing juicier for you to bite.
Had you so much as looked at the Daily Telegraph once in the last three years you'd know that's its been absolutely resolute in its support of Brexit, and a hard Brexit at that. It's been the most pro Brexit newspaper, even more so than the Sun, Mail or Express.

And it is really quite ridiculous that you don't seem to understand what opinion polling is. Polling is, and has been, carried out on an almost weekly basis for decades regardless of whether there is an impending general election.

Yet, as usual, you've used your own lack of knowledge and misunderstanding to allege there's some big conspiracy to attack the Tories.

I really am starting to think that you're a parody right wing account. Because it takes soenthing extraordinary to accuse the Telegraph of pushing a remain line.
Last edited by DSilva; 5 days ago
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