Joining the tories for primaries Watch

nulli tertius
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#21
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#21
(Original post by That'sGreat)
This is just the most pointless comment on this thread. Yes, you are correct, if something happens to make Boris pull out, he will not be elected as party leader. Also, if an alien spaceship comes down to vaporise Boris, he will not be elected party leader.

When I said Boris Johnson will win by a landslide, this was on the basis that things would go normally, I can't account for every little factor that might stop him running. But sure, if BoJo gets photographed paying for a sex slave I'm sure he will not be elected as party leader.
There are two perfectly credible "pending" scandals.

One is the emergence into the public domain of another illegitimate child. The other is credible evidence that he lied this week that his only encounter with cocaine was the teenage one he described. If either of these become real scandals (and these will not emerge until the field is down to two), that will change everything in the same way that Gove's decision to run in 2016 changed everything. These are not "alien spaceship" improbable and they are shaping the attitudes of Boris' team, his opponents and those in charge of the contest.

You are saying no more than "if everything goes with the form book, the favourite will win and ultimately that comment is trivial.
Last edited by nulli tertius; 1 month ago
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That'sGreat
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#22
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#22
(Original post by nulli tertius)
There are two perfectly credible "pending" scandals.

One is the emergence into the public domain of another illegitimate child. The other is credible evidence that he lied this week that his only encounter with cocaine was the teenage one he described. If either of these become real scandals (and these will not emerge until the field is down to two), that will change everything in the same way that Gove's decision to run in 2016 changed everything. These are not "alien spaceship" improbable and they are shaping the attitudes of Boris' team, his opponents and those in charge of the contest.

You are saying no more than "if everything goes with the form book, the favourite will win and ultimately that comment is trivial.
So the fact that Boris Johnson currently has a higher popularity level than Sajid Javid, Hunt, Raab and Rory Stewart COMBINED means nothing to you? Or how he's three times more popular than second place Hunt?

The illegitimate child so called 'scandal' last popped up last year, and is pretty much irrelevant. The cocaine he has admitted to already using, and has had no impact on his popularity. I don't think you understand how this all works. I didn't say nothing will happen, but I'm saying the only type of 'scandal' that will have any effect will have to be him buying a sex slave or being vaporised by aliens. Your comments are pointless.

Yes, I am saying that the favourite will win, because he will. The only reason I made that comment was in response to people being ridiculous and saying he is equally as popular as Rory Stewart, to which you got involved with some poxy comment. BoJo is going to win by a landslide, chances are it won't change.
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nulli tertius
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#23
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#23
(Original post by That'sGreat)
So the fact that Boris Johnson currently has a higher popularity level than Sajid Javid, Hunt, Raab and Rory Stewart COMBINED means nothing to you? Or how he's three times more popular than second place Hunt?

The illegitimate child so called 'scandal' last popped up last year, and is pretty much irrelevant. The cocaine he has admitted to already using, and has had no impact on his popularity. I don't think you understand how this all works. I didn't say nothing will happen, but I'm saying the only type of 'scandal' that will have any effect will have to be him buying a sex slave or being vaporised by aliens. Your comments are pointless.

Yes, I am saying that the favourite will win, because he will. The only reason I made that comment was in response to people being ridiculous and saying he is equally as popular as Rory Stewart, to which you got involved with some poxy comment. BoJo is going to win by a landslide, chances are it won't change.
The illegitimate child scandal has not yet appeared at all. The one illegitimate child he has admitted to, is not an issue. The question is, and various journalists are wanting to press him on this, are there any more?

He has admitted taking something which he is unsure was genuine cocaine because he sneezed it out, whilst he was in his teens. If anyone has evidence, for example that this was a lie and that he was snorting cocaine 5 years ago, that is him finished.

The reason no-one has confidence in anything Johnson says is that Michael Howard very publicly sacked him as shadow arts minister for publicly lying about his affair with Petronella Wyatt.
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L i b
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#24
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#24
(Original post by That'sGreat)
You know a Tory leadership contest and a general election are completely different?

May lost the supposed 'landslide' more to do with a poor election campaign and the overarching issue of Brexit, considering 70% of Tory party members are happy for a no-deal - BoJo has little chance of losing. The fake Rory Stewart will not get a look in.
I'm not sure what school of rhetoric you studied at, but I'm not sure if asking people repeatedly if they understand basic things that they clearly do understand is helping very much.

A poor election campaign and an overarching issue of Brexit? One might say the same applies, several times over, in this case. No deal is a position, but it is not one that Boris can reasonably deliver given that there is not a majority in Parliament for it.

It's a bit peculiar incidentally to have someone who seems to be a supporter of another party tell Conservatives who somehow deserves to be in the Tory party and who shouldn't. You support different things from the Conservative Party: we don't want to become UKIP Lite, nor is it a viable way of winning elections. Because a serious party of government leading people down a yellow brick road is not, and never will be, a serious proposition.
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L i b
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#25
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#25
(Original post by nulli tertius)
The key challenge for the new leader is to keep the Party together rather than Brexit. Both the Lib Dems and the Brexit Party want a general election and a lot of Tory MPs will be making the calculation about whether the relevant one will a better “brand” for them personally.

No-one will jump ship until the leadership contest is over but then there a real risk some MPs will go. Brexiteers have been handing out metaphorical kickings to Remainer colleagues for months without regard to the fact that they will need the support of those colleagues to stay in Government. If Boris, or whoever, tilts Remainerwards to keep them onboard there is a risk that Leavers will prefer the ideological purity of the Brexit Party.

The problem will become more acute as the Tories have to seek another Brexit extension because they found no-one to renegotiate with before 31 October and a “No Deal” Brexit is politically undeliverable.

A lot of MPs will have made the calculation that Labour’s problems in Scotland mean that even if they get into Government, it will be without the strength to pursue a radical left wing agenda.
I agree with a lot of this. The fissures having been torn - and not tackled by Theresa May - I'm not really sure I see a solution other than urging moderation, polite disagreement and trying to get the whole bloody thing over with as soon as possible.

I'm glad there seems to be an emerging acceptance that no deal is undeliverable no matter how much the Brexiteers want it - and that any apparently clever alternative draws this out yet further. I can't help but think sometimes that this is Theresa May's Deal for Slow Learners. While it may have some temporary political expediency, the positions of most of the leadership contenders simply will not hold. The challenge - and it's increasingly being taken up - is to demonstrate that before the end of the leadership contest.

Because my view is that it will be deceiving people - rather than the detail of the backstop - that will really turn voters against the party.
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