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ByEeek
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#41
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#41
(Original post by Burton Bridge)
Not at all, firstly in the last 20 years money has got tighter for working people while the elites have got much more excess. Example 20 years ago it was an occasion to see a supercar, now I pass one almost every day! But people in poverty is growing hugely, another example workimg conditions are much worse than 20 years ago.

I'm not begging for poverty. Interesting you say it will be OK for the elites, it's the elites who own the companies that we are supposed to be killing off, according to the doom mongers if we leave. Wjy do you think they will be OK?
No. Its not the companies that will be hit. Well they will but it will be slow. No it is the massive devaluation of the pound alongside higher import duty on commonly available products and food that will have the biggest impact on the working man and his family. Then there will be the Brexit tax imposed by greedy shops out to make a quick buck off the confusion. Lastly, the middle earners / borrowers will get wholloped by higher interest rates raised to try and alleviate the effects of inflation.

All the trade deals and supposed Eutopia won't come online for another 10-15 years or so and by then we will both be old and whithered. It is my kids who will have to pick up the sh1t.
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Burton Bridge
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#42
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I'd like too know how you know this for a fact?

I think it's impossible for a change of this size to not effect some businesses, why do you think they will be uneffected? While thinking the pound will crash?

You see there is a key difference in opinion, leavers see opportunities and challenges, remainers who wish to honour the referendum see challenges and damage limitations! It's a different mind set totally, that's the mind set May has been in.

Now the finance sector are well prepared, the EU depend on London far more than they wish to admit. They can impose taxes on us, we can on them. Now you say there will be no trade deals (I'll ignore your sarcasm) for 10-15 years I think this is a figure you pull out your proverbial rear end. The US, China and others are highly vocal they wish to deal with us however the thing that is stopping us doing this is, our, European Union membership!
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Burton Bridge
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#43
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ByEeek

See reply above, forgot to quote you mate
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ByEeek
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#44
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#44
(Original post by Burton Bridge)
I'd like too know how you know this for a fact?

I think it's impossible for a change of this size to not effect some businesses, why do you think they will be uneffected? While thinking the pound will crash?
Because our economy will be weakened as trade with our main trading partner suddenly becomes very difficult. We saw GDP rise as companies tried to mitigate their risks by stockpiling. It doesn't take much to have a big affect. There is little doubt that a hard Brexit will see a significant devaluation of our pound.

I agree with your evaluation of opportunities and pessimism. However, there are few people who are actually having to deal with the realities of Brexit who don't think hard Brexit will be a disaster in the short to medium term. It is like burning the house down. Now, the Brexiteer would say that that leaves an opportunity to build a new house. However, the pragmatist would say that the current house is perfectly habitable and the new house won't be ready for 10 years so where shall we live until then? The remainer is very much of the view that a deal might be done on the land adjacent where we could build another house or an extension and in 10 years time, instead of having rebuilt the house that we just burned down, we could have a bigger house or even two houses. And regardless of which route you take, the people will still feel disenfranchised, there will still be calls to change the political process, the poor will still be poor and the rich will still be super rich. You won't get any of what you think you will get from Brexit. We will all just be significantly poorer in finance and opportunity.

Why destroy all the good stuff we have for a dream that the grass is greener on the other side - which it never is BTW..
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L i b
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#45
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#45
(Original post by Burton Bridge)
Not at all, firstly in the last 20 years money has got tighter for working people while the elites have got much more excess. Example 20 years ago it was an occasion to see a supercar, now I pass one almost every day! But people in poverty is growing hugely, another example workimg conditions are much worse than 20 years ago.
That's just wrong. In 1999/00 there were 19% of people in poverty BHC and 24% AHC. In the most recent figures, that has declined to 17% BHC and 22% AHC. Poverty has, in that 20 year period, fluctuated only very slightly: there has been no increase, never mind a "huge" one.

Median real terms disposable incomes have also grown over that period too. We are not only considerably richer, but also very slightly more equal than we were 20 years ago.
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Burton Bridge
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#46
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(Original post by L i b)
That's just wrong. In 1999/00 there were 19% of people in poverty BHC and 24% AHC. In the most recent figures, that has declined to 17% BHC and 22% AHC. Poverty has, in that 20 year period, fluctuated only very slightly: there has been no increase, never mind a "huge" one.

Median real terms disposable incomes have also grown over that period too. We are not only considerably richer, but also very slightly more equal than we were 20 years ago.
Ok you are going to have to explain what BHC and AHC stand for, I maybe be highlighting that I'm thick but I can't think of anything

Unfortunately as with any statistical studies, the person can select certain statistics to make virtually any point, political advisor's make careers out of this!

Regards working conditions and disposable income, I speak from what I see around me locally. I live in the Midlands I'm yet to hear a factory workers new contract to be better than an old one or their pension scheme upgraded to a one which gives greater benefits. The last time such things happened was well over 40 years ago!

Furthermore the gap between the richest and poorest has never been greater living memory. Homelessness has risen, mainly young single men below 35 are littering the streets of our towns and cities. Don't worry then getting older, they will simply die from adverse conditions, we would not allow stray animals to live in the conditions we will allow homeless people to live in currently.

As for disposable income, the average wage is unrealistic for many, not just unskilled workers either. A skilled jobs nursery nurse, home carer or even some traditional highly skilled apprentice bound jobs like butcher's or bakers have no hope of an UK 30k average wage. These statistics are simply misleading, there are a tiny few on huge salaries and many on low salaries which gives an inflated national average.
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Burton Bridge
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#47
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#47
(Original post by ByEeek)
Because our economy will be weakened as trade with our main trading partner suddenly becomes very difficult. We saw GDP rise as companies tried to mitigate their risks by stockpiling. It doesn't take much to have a big affect. There is little doubt that a hard Brexit will see a significant devaluation of our pound.

I agree with your evaluation of opportunities and pessimism. However, there are few people who are actually having to deal with the realities of Brexit who don't think hard Brexit will be a disaster in the short to medium term. It is like burning the house down. Now, the Brexiteer would say that that leaves an opportunity to build a new house. However, the pragmatist would say that the current house is perfectly habitable and the new house won't be ready for 10 years so where shall we live until then? The remainer is very much of the view that a deal might be done on the land adjacent where we could build another house or an extension and in 10 years time, instead of having rebuilt the house that we just burned down, we could have a bigger house or even two houses. And regardless of which route you take, the people will still feel disenfranchised, there will still be calls to change the political process, the poor will still be poor and the rich will still be super rich. You won't get any of what you think you will get from Brexit. We will all just be significantly poorer in finance and opportunity.

Why destroy all the good stuff we have for a dream that the grass is greener on the other side - which it never is BTW..
To be honest I agree with much of what you said i think there is a danger of people in areas of suffering thinking the grass might be greener. Outside of London and Scotland, two areas which have had money spent of them the status Quo has been bad for working people.

We will need to revisit this a year or two after we have left and then it will be clear who was right and wrong. My personal opinion is neither extreme side will be correct, it won't be as bad as you think and it won't be as rosey as other levers think it will be.
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L i b
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#48
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#48
(Original post by Burton Bridge)
Ok you are going to have to explain what BHC and AHC stand for, I maybe be highlighting that I'm thick but I can't think of anything

Unfortunately as with any statistical studies, the person can select certain statistics to make virtually any point, political advisor's make careers out of this!
Poverty is defined statistically as having a household income below 60% of the national median income. There's two common ways of measuring it - before and after housing costs: BHC and AHC. Before is probably the more technical justifiable, but AHC tends to show a bit more clearly what people have in their pockets.

These are just the headline poverty figures, no manipulation intended. They're also a pretty straightforward methodology and produced independently by the Office for National Statistics rather than politicians.

Regards working conditions and disposable income, I speak from what I see around me locally. I live in the Midlands I'm yet to hear a factory workers new contract to be better than an old one or their pension scheme upgraded to a one which gives greater benefits. The last time such things happened was well over 40 years ago!
Pension schemes, of course, won't be counted as income now - but some of the biggest declines in poverty were among pensioners. They were hard targeted by the Blair-Brown governments and the Coalition and Conservatives have pretty much protected the support for low-income pensioners.

You might argue that the pensioners of the future will be worse off. But for those on lower incomes, many in the past simply haven't had a pension beyond the basic state pension: that the lowest earners have a workplace pension is impressive in itself.

Furthermore the gap between the richest and poorest has never been greater living memory. Homelessness has risen, mainly young single men below 35 are littering the streets of our towns and cities. Don't worry then getting older, they will simply die from adverse conditions, we would not allow stray animals to live in the conditions we will allow homeless people to live in currently.
The evidence that there is a growing gap between rich and poor can't be supported by evidence. In general, statistics like the GINI index show that it has been pretty static for over 30 years.

Homelessness is, of course, a problem. But there are big trade-offs here. To give an example in the "classic Britain" of popular imagination, we would have institutionalised a lot of these people against their will. Even in the 1970s and early 80s, we had fairly mass institutionalisation of people with relatively minor problems, although it was the early 60s when planning for change began. As Health Minister, Enoch Powell was actually one of its most radical advocates on civil liberties grounds.

There were around 150,000 in psychiatric hospitals in the 60s, now there is about 20-30,000. For most, continuing to live in the community has been beneficial - and recognises their rights and autonomy. But there is a huge prevalence of mental health issues among rough sleepers and people begging - and also the close ties with addiction.

It's not right - and I wouldn't for a second defend it - but a lot of these people are difficult to reach and help, while respecting their own wishes and reducing problems for wider society.

As for disposable income, the average wage is unrealistic for many, not just unskilled workers either. A skilled jobs nursery nurse, home carer or even some traditional highly skilled apprentice bound jobs like butcher's or bakers have no hope of an UK 30k average wage. These statistics are simply misleading, there are a tiny few on huge salaries and many on low salaries which gives an inflated national average.
Which is why we use median rather than mean averages. In terms of household disposable income, there's about £6,000 difference between the two as, like you say, it is skewed somewhat by the very top earners.

For the low earners in work, the increases in minimum wage levels and the increase in the personal allowance has had fairly significant effects. Many benefited significantly from the introduction of the modern tax credits system (which Alistair Darling pointed out both cost far more and benefited far more people than was ever intended). Benefits, however, have largely been frozen - with the government seeking to reduce the costs of poverty pay simply falling back to the state.

You are right that some jobs have had their skills hollowed out: bank managers are not the same as they used to be, grocers are now store managers. That does concern me a bit too, but we are a quite different economy from what we used to be.
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