[Poll] Edexcel Further Maths Overall Grade Boundaries 2019 A-level Watch

Poll: What do you think your overall raw mark out of 300 is (Edexcel FM)?
281-300 (8)
5.88%
261-280 (19)
13.97%
241-260 (20)
14.71%
221-240 (30)
22.06%
201-220 (27)
19.85%
181-200 (16)
11.76%
161-180 (6)
4.41%
141-160 (3)
2.21%
121-140 (3)
2.21%
101-120 (1)
0.74%
81-100 (1)
0.74%
61-80 (0)
0%
(2)
1.47%
MagnumKoishi
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#21
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Eek what does everyone think 220-230 is? (FM1 D1)
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Last edited by MagnumKoishi; 2 weeks ago
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_gcx
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#22
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(Original post by ynsane)
I wasn't aware of exactly how the specification's changed so cheers. Never knew that CP1 vectors used to be in C4! Indeed, I guess it's the style that's changed. Apparently the old spec was just really formulaic.
They did put a bit more in - for example planes from FP3 but inexplicably no cross product. I'm not quite sure how the boundaries will go - I was not expecting the 100/160 for an A at AS. (was expecting it to be in the 70s%) Did not expect the single AS boundaries being higher than FM. The uncertainty in that is the only reason I'm apprehensive - on the old spec you had years of grade boundaries to go off. Looking at the poll makes the predictions of 70 something% for an A* not seem unrealistic but again - there are many issues with these sorts of polls.
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ynsane
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#23
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#23
Yeah the sheer uncertainty's bugging me. There's so many different ways you could infer grade boundaries but ultimately it's still just an estimate, and the deduced results can vary greatly. That's really quite low for AS- but I guess that can't be extrapolated, just as with everything else tbh.

Judging by the poll right now- and going by the previous statistic that the top 30% of candidates get an A*- the A* grade boundary could be 240-250 out of 300, so 80 something %. I hope you're right on this though lol, but yeah you can't gauge stuff properly with these polls.
(Original post by _gcx)
They did put a bit more in - for example planes from FP3 but inexplicably no cross product. I'm not quite sure how the boundaries will go - I was not expecting the 100/160 for an A at AS. (was expecting it to be in the 70s%) Did not expect the single AS boundaries being higher than FM. The uncertainty in that is the only reason I'm apprehensive - on the old spec you had years of grade boundaries to go off. Looking at the poll makes the predictions of 70 something% for an A* not seem unrealistic but again - there are many issues with these sorts of polls.
...............................
EDIT Because I have nothing better to do:

I used the 30% metric for A* in the individual modules, using the TSR polls for CP2, FP1 (this one's even less reliable due to the small sample size) and FM1 to try and come up with some grade boundaries using some very dodgy interpolation. I couldn't find a poll for CP1 so I just made up the figure lol. I don't even know what the point of doing this was, so don't take this seriously.

For A*: 69/75 for FM1, 60/75 CP2, 64/75 FP1 (the FP1 poll didn't have many responses though) and I'm going to guess 67/75 CP1. That sums to 261/300 for A* in this module combination.

For an A: 64/75 FM1, 51/75 CP2, 59/75 FP1, 62/75 CP1. This sums to 236/300 for an A.
Last edited by ynsane; 2 weeks ago
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CandidateZero
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Also judging by this poll, the A is around 225-230 assuming a somewhat uniform distribution within the 221-240 marks band - that seems unreasonably high. Unfortunately I doubt this poll will serve much use for the A boundary as I can’t see 60% of the cohort scoring 230 or above. What you’ll receive from it is an overestimate imo, so I suppose it could be used as an ‘upper bound’ for each of the boundaries.
(Original post by ynsane)
Yeah the sheer uncertainty's bugging me. There's so many different ways you could infer grade boundaries but ultimately it's still just an estimate, and the deduced results can vary greatly. That's really quite low for AS- but I guess that can't be extrapolated, just as with everything else tbh.

Judging by the poll right now- and going by the previous statistic that the top 30% of candidates get an A*- the A* grade boundary could be 240-250 out of 300, so 80 something %. I hope you're right on this though lol, but yeah you can't gauge stuff properly with these polls.
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ynsane
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#25
Agreed, the poll suggests an A is in that range assuming roughly 60% of the cohort receive an A like in the past (this is a fairly solid assumption tbf, the greater issue is that the poll sample really is unlikely to be unrepresentative in many ways). Indeed, hopefully it's an overestimate!
(Original post by CandidateZero)
Also judging by this poll, the A is around 225-230 assuming a somewhat uniform distribution within the 221-240 marks band - that seems unreasonably high. Unfortunately I doubt this poll will serve much use for the A boundary as I can’t see 60% of the cohort scoring 230 or above. What you’ll receive from it is an overestimate imo, so I suppose it could be used as an ‘upper bound’ for each of the boundaries.
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MagnumKoishi
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(Original post by CandidateZero)
Also judging by this poll, the A is around 225-230 assuming a somewhat uniform distribution within the 221-240 marks band - that seems unreasonably high. Unfortunately I doubt this poll will serve much use for the A boundary as I can’t see 60% of the cohort scoring 230 or above. What you’ll receive from it is an overestimate imo, so I suppose it could be used as an ‘upper bound’ for each of the boundaries.
The uncertainty of how much of an upper bound that is is the problem oof. I'm currently on about 225 (220 if I assume no method marks), and I need an A. It's the difference between getting into cambridge or not so it's a big deal to me.
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_gcx
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(Original post by ynsane)
Yeah the sheer uncertainty's bugging me. There's so many different ways you could infer grade boundaries but ultimately it's still just an estimate, and the deduced results can vary greatly. That's really quite low for AS- but I guess that can't be extrapolated, just as with everything else tbh.

Judging by the poll right now- and going by the previous statistic that the top 30% of candidates get an A*- the A* grade boundary could be 240-250 out of 300, so 80 something %. I hope you're right on this though lol, but yeah you can't gauge stuff properly with these polls.

...............................
EDIT Because I have nothing better to do:

I used the 30% metric for A* in the individual modules, using the TSR polls for CP2, FP1 (this one's even less reliable due to the small sample size) and FM1 to try and come up with some grade boundaries using some very dodgy interpolation. I couldn't find a poll for CP1 so I just made up the figure lol. I don't even know what the point of doing this was, so don't take this seriously.

For A*: 69/75 for FM1, 60/75 CP2, 64/75 FP1 (the FP1 poll didn't have many responses though) and I'm going to guess 67/75 CP1. That sums to 261/300 for A* in this module combination.

For an A: 64/75 FM1, 51/75 CP2, 59/75 FP1, 62/75 CP1. This sums to 236/300 for an A.
Well, bear in mind that when I looked at a C4 poll, 30% reckoned they got a mark that turned out to be an A*, when 15% of people in the country got an A* in maths overall. This is single maths not further though. Obviously loads of assumptions made there.
Last edited by _gcx; 2 weeks ago
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CandidateZero
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I have a lot of confidence in saying that 220 will be an A, and probably a fairly strong one too. Try to not think about it too much until you need to in the lead up to results day, as the boundaries are anyone’s guess. If I had to predict them, I’d go for 210 for the A and 240 for the A*, for FM1 and D1 modules.
(Original post by MagnumKoishi)
The uncertainty of how much of an upper bound that is is the problem oof. I'm currently on about 225 (220 if I assume no method marks), and I need an A. It's the difference between getting into cambridge or not so it's a big deal to me.
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Statistician384
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What about FP1 and FS1?
(Original post by CandidateZero)
I have a lot of confidence in saying that 220 will be an A, and probably a fairly strong one too. Try to not think about it too much until you need to in the lead up to results day, as the boundaries are anyone’s guess. If I had to predict them, I’d go for 210 for the A and 240 for the A*, for FM1 and D1 modules.
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ynsane
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Woah that's quite a difference; indeed though, single maths has a cohort with a much wider range of ability that TSR is not representative of. I would imagine TSR to be more representative for further maths, but even then.... too many assumptions here and there, and too small a sample size.
(Original post by _gcx)
Well, bear in mind that when I looked at a C4 poll, 30% reckoned they got a mark that turned out to be an A*, when 15% of people in the country got an A* in maths overall. This is single maths not further though. Obviously loads of assumptions made there.
Me too mate, my further maths grade means a lot to me and I likewise need an A (was hoping for A* initially). I worked so hard to get my offer but just lost my steam for actual A-levels.
(Original post by MagnumKoishi)
The uncertainty of how much of an upper bound that is is the problem oof. I'm currently on about 225 (220 if I assume no method marks), and I need an A. It's the difference between getting into cambridge or not so it's a big deal to me.
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CandidateZero
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Probably about the same (give or take 5-6 marks).
(Original post by Statistician384)
What about FP1 and FS1?
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_gcx
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(Original post by ynsane)
Woah that's quite a difference; indeed though, single maths has a cohort with a much wider range of ability that TSR is not representative of. I would imagine TSR to be more representative for further maths, but even then.... too many assumptions here and there, and too small a sample size.

Me too mate, my further maths grade means a lot to me and I likewise need an A (was hoping for A* initially). I worked so hard to get my offer but just lost my steam for actual A-levels.
Yeah that's my thinking too. Though, I spent a lot of GCSE summer worrying about what the 9 boundary would be just to find that it was way below what I expected so I was relieved. Was similarly shocked by the single maths grade boundaries last summer though I didn't actually sit it. So I'm just holding hope the trend will continue and feeling reasonably chilled. More likely to miss my offer because of step anyway.
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MagnumKoishi
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(Original post by _gcx)
Yeah that's my thinking too. Though, I spent a lot of GCSE summer worrying about what the 9 boundary would be just to find that it was way below what I expected so I was relieved. Was similarly shocked by the single maths grade boundaries last summer though I didn't actually sit it. So I'm just holding hope the trend will continue and feeling reasonably chilled. More likely to miss my offer because of step anyway.
Same, I'm always worrying about the boundaries only to find out I got 95% and an A* was 72%. Though in this case I've definitely got no more than 77%, and even an A is certainly not going to be 72%. At least I don't need STEP though phew (natsci here)
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Statistician384
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In another thread someone said that FP1 and FS1 were found harder than FM1 and D1?
(Original post by CandidateZero)
Probably about the same (give or take 5-6 marks).
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MagnumKoishi
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(Original post by Statistician384)
In another thread someone said that FP1 and FS1 were found harder than FM1 and D1?
I heard FS1 was really easy though
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CandidateZero
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If you look at the AS boundaries, they were almost identical for every optional module. There’s a lot of uncertainty with D1 - people often assume they’ll get method marks for incorrect answers when they may not, leading to over-predictions. I’ve heard that FP1 was reasonably hard but I’ve heard FS1 was fairly standard, on the same level as FM1 comparatively, so I think 5-6 marks for each boundary for FS1/FP1 below the FM1/D1 ones sounds reasonable.
(Original post by Statistician384)
In another thread someone said that FP1 and FS1 were found harder than FM1 and D1?
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Statistician384
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Many questions allegedly caught people out. Myself included.

Edited: referring to FS1
Last edited by Statistician384; 2 weeks ago
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Statistician384
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So you think my combination will be lower?
(Original post by CandidateZero)
If you look at the AS boundaries, they were almost identical for every optional module. There’s a lot of uncertainty with D1 - people often assume they’ll get method marks for incorrect answers when they may not, leading to over-predictions. I’ve heard that FP1 was reasonably hard but I’ve heard FS1 was fairly standard, on the same level as FM1 comparatively, so I think 5-6 marks for each boundary for FS1/FP1 below the FM1/D1 ones sounds reasonable.
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CandidateZero
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From what I’ve heard, yes, but only marginally.
(Original post by Statistician384)
So you think my combination will be lower?
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Statistician384
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Thank you
(Original post by CandidateZero)
From what I’ve heard, yes, but only marginally.
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