[Poll] Edexcel Further Maths Overall Grade Boundaries 2019 A-level Watch

Poll: What do you think your overall raw mark out of 300 is (Edexcel FM)?
281-300 (8)
5.88%
261-280 (19)
13.97%
241-260 (20)
14.71%
221-240 (30)
22.06%
201-220 (27)
19.85%
181-200 (16)
11.76%
161-180 (6)
4.41%
141-160 (3)
2.21%
121-140 (3)
2.21%
101-120 (1)
0.74%
81-100 (1)
0.74%
61-80 (0)
0%
(2)
1.47%
Statistician384
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#41
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#41
5-6 marks lower do you think?
(Original post by Statistician384)
Thank you
(Original post by CandidateZero)
From what I’ve heard, yes, but only marginally.
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CandidateZero
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#42
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As a rough estimate, yes, I think so
(Original post by Statistician384)
5-6 marks lower do you think?
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_gcx
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#43
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(Original post by CandidateZero)
If you look at the AS boundaries, they were almost identical for every optional module. There’s a lot of uncertainty with D1 - people often assume they’ll get method marks for incorrect answers when they may not, leading to over-predictions. I’ve heard that FP1 was reasonably hard but I’ve heard FS1 was fairly standard, on the same level as FM1 comparatively, so I think 5-6 marks for each boundary for FS1/FP1 below the FM1/D1 ones sounds reasonable.
Well with FS1 a lot of people made a fairly large mistake on a 5 marker at the end. (which might mean some people are 4-5 marks down off the bat depending on the MS) And there was a mistake in the textbook which if followed would have resulted in another 1 or 2 marks lost on a 3 marker. The first few questions were very standard but I think there was enough to catch people out. This was reassuring since the FM stats modules, S3 and S4, often had boundaries similar to Further Pure. (I think it was 72 for an A* in S3 last year but S4 had a pretty hard paper so had an A* boundary of 62) I have seen the FM1 paper but as I don't do FM1 I don't know the difficulty relative to other papers.
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Statistician384
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#44
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Which textbook mistake?
(Original post by _gcx)
Well with FS1 a lot of people made a fairly large mistake on a 5 marker at the end. (which might mean some people are 4-5 marks down off the bat depending on the MS) And there was a mistake in the textbook which if followed would have resulted in another 1 or 2 marks lost on a 3 marker. The first few questions were very standard but I think there was enough to catch people out. This was reassuring since the FM stats modules, S3 and S4, often had boundaries similar to Further Pure. (I think it was 72 for an A* in S3 last year but S4 had a pretty hard paper so had an A* boundary of 62) I have seen the FM1 paper but as I don't do FM1 I don't know the difficulty relative to other papers.
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_gcx
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(Original post by Statistician384)
Which textbook mistake?
It misquoted the term in x^n in a taylor series being f^(n) (0)/n! by saying that P(X=n) = G^(n) (0) (with G being the PGF of X) instead of G^(n)/n!
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Statistician384
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#46
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My big mistake in FS1 was using the central limit theorem for Q5. I've been having sleepless nights over this. How many marks could I have lost?
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MagnumKoishi
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#47
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(Original post by Statistician384)
My big mistake in FS1 was using the central limit theorem for Q5. I've been having sleepless nights over this. How many marks could I have lost?
No more than I could have lost for not being able to find the initial conditions (they were given, I just blanked and couldn't spot them) for the coupled DEs in cp1. Everyone makes stupid mistakes, it'll even out in the end.
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Statistician384
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#48
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It's because it said "mean per month".
(Original post by MagnumKoishi)
No more than I could have lost for not being able to find the initial conditions (they were given, I just blanked and couldn't spot them) for the coupled DEs in cp1. Everyone makes stupid mistakes, it'll even out in the end.
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Statistician384
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#49
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Just bumping this to increase sample size.
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MagnumKoishi
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#50
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Assuming linear mark distributions etc etc on the data we have so far- using edexcel's own published grade distributions, this yields 247 for an A* and 233 for an A. TSR is generally skewed, consisting of more high achievers than average, so take these as upper bounds (also consider its unlikely for there to be only 4.7% of the marks separating A and A*- there'll be a bigger gap, meaning either the upper bound for A* is higher than 247 or A is lower than 233)
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Statistician384
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#51
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I think it'd be the latter.
(Original post by MagnumKoishi)
Assuming linear mark distributions etc etc on the data we have so far- using edexcel's own published grade distributions, this yields 247 for an A* and 233 for an A. TSR is generally skewed, consisting of more high achievers than average, so take these as upper bounds (also consider its unlikely for there to be only 4.7% of the marks separating A and A*- there'll be a bigger gap, meaning either the upper bound for A* is higher than 247 or A is lower than 233)
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MagnumKoishi
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#52
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(Original post by Statistician384)
I think it'd be the latter.
I hope so. There'd be nothing worse than missing my Cambridge offer by 5 marks
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Statistician384
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I reckon it'll be 242 for an A* and about 207 for an A.
(Original post by MagnumKoishi)
I hope so. There'd be nothing worse than missing my Cambridge offer by 5 marks
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MagnumKoishi
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#54
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Going by other methods: assuming linear distributions again. 30% get an A*, putting the A* boundary at 247. There's generally 9.3% separating A and A*, putting the A boundary at 219. The other grades follow on subtracting 28 marks each time from 219. This doesn't explain the distribution in the 221-240 interval though, but if you put it down to tsr having lots of high achievers then it works
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Statistician384
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What published grade distributions?
(Original post by MagnumKoishi)
Assuming linear mark distributions etc etc on the data we have so far- using edexcel's own published grade distributions, this yields 247 for an A* and 233 for an A. TSR is generally skewed, consisting of more high achievers than average, so take these as upper bounds (also consider its unlikely for there to be only 4.7% of the marks separating A and A*- there'll be a bigger gap, meaning either the upper bound for A* is higher than 247 or A is lower than 233)
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MagnumKoishi
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(Original post by Statistician384)
What published grade distributions?
Their published pdf outlining the grade distributions last year (it barely changes year to year). 30% got an A*, 57% cumulative got A or above.
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_gcx
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(Original post by MagnumKoishi)
Going by other methods: assuming linear distributions again. 30% get an A*, putting the A* boundary at 247. There's generally 9.3% separating A and A*, putting the A boundary at 219. The other grades follow on subtracting 28 marks each time from 219. This doesn't explain the distribution in the 221-240 interval though, but if you put it down to tsr having lots of high achievers then it works
I think the assumptions being made here are too problematic. If you want to for peace of mind, you can try to correct for the various issues of this poll. It will only go down doing this. I did this for single maths, for shits and giggles, using old C4 polls and comparing this to the actual A* percentage. I'm not sure if similar data exists for FP2/FP3 and M3/M4/M5/S3/S4. Unfortunately a lot of schools did combinations which avoided doing any further maths at all beyond the Further Pures [of which they may have only done 2!] so the sample size for these would probably be low anyway.

Decision will be a bit dodgier because it didn't have any FM modules.

I think doing it without any correction will just produce boundaries that will prove to be unrealistically high and will just get people stressed. The fact that just using 30% with no corrections gives 247 probably bodes well.

In the meantime enjoy your summer and do some non-A-level maths.
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MagnumKoishi
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(Original post by _gcx)
I think the assumptions being made here are too problematic. If you want to for peace of mind, you can try to correct for the various issues of this poll. It will only go down doing this. I did this for single maths, for shits and giggles, using old C4 polls and comparing this to the actual A* percentage. I'm not sure if similar data exists for FP2/FP3 and M3/M4/M5/S3/S4. Unfortunately a lot of schools did combinations which avoided doing any further maths at all beyond the Further Pures [of which they may have only done 2!] so the sample size for these would probably be low anyway.

Decision will be a bit dodgier because it didn't have any FM modules.

I think doing it without any correction will just produce boundaries that will prove to be unrealistically high and will just get people stressed. The fact that just using 30% with no corrections gives 247 probably bodes well.

In the meantime enjoy your summer and do some non-A-level maths.
Thanks, I really need to chill out lol I'm getting too stressed over these boundaries. It'd be a massive hit to me if I missed my cambridge offer by a few marks, although I know I probably won't do (I'm on 220 worst case scenario, realistic grade boundaries suggest an A below that).
I'll try forget about maths, physics and everything thus related until August 15th. Thanks everyone for taking part in this thread
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_gcx
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(Original post by MagnumKoishi)
Thanks, I really need to chill out lol I'm getting too stressed over these boundaries. It'd be a massive hit to me if I missed my cambridge offer by a few marks, although I know I probably won't do (I'm on 220 worst case scenario, realistic grade boundaries suggest an A below that).
I'll try forget about maths, physics and everything thus related until August 15th. Thanks everyone for taking part in this thread
Probably for the best. Who knows, the boundaries could surprise you and you could end up with an A*.
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Lumos_
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(Original post by _gcx)
probably for the best. Who knows, the boundaries could surprise you and you could end up with an a*.
check your skype smhhhhhhh
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