How will Boris end up? Watch

Poll: What will happen to Boris as PM? Some possible scenarios, which is most likely?
He will win an early election and then another one after that (5)
13.89%
He will stagger on and fail over the Brexit negotiations and then stand down (5)
13.89%
He will fail at an early stage with Parliament, attempt to prorogue (eg, close) Parliament to create a Hard Brexit by royal decree, causing national chaos (13)
36.11%
He will continue without an election, get nowhere with a hard Brexit and end up with the Theresa May deal (13)
36.11%
Fullofsurprises
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#1
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#1
Fascinating article by Sonia Purnell, who worked with Boris in Brussels for the Telegraph, highlighting what a strange, shifty and ambitious man he is and how little regard he has for the truth and for ordinary decency.
https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...sis-eu-bashing

Purnell predicted long ago (to the derision of her then colleagues) that Boris would be PM, as he shortly will be. Quite a forecast for more than 25 years ago.

How will things go when he becomes PM? Will he hold a snap general election to try to legitimise himself? This seems plausible, given that the Brexit negotiations will either result in further delays post-Oct or else end in a miserable collapse of the UK economy into a deep recession.

As Purnell points out, much of what is now happening can be attributed to Boris and he is inheriting the mess he did so much to create. What will he do with it?

He also a civil service that won't trust him and many MPs that hate him - and that's just in his own party.
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Wired_1800
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#2
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(Original post by Fullofsurprises)
Fascinating article by Sonia Purnell, who worked with Boris in Brussels for the Telegraph, highlighting what a strange, shifty and ambitious man he is and how little regard he has for the truth and for ordinary decency.
https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...sis-eu-bashing

Purnell predicted long ago (to the derision of her then colleagues) that Boris would be PM, as he shortly will be. Quite a forecast for more than 25 years ago.

How will things go when he becomes PM? Will he hold a snap general election to try to legitimise himself? This seems plausible, given that the Brexit negotiations will either result in further delays post-Oct or else end in a miserable collapse of the UK economy into a deep recession.

As Purnell points out, much of what is now happening can be attributed to Boris and he is inheriting the mess he did so much to create. What will he do with it?

He also a civil service that won't trust him and many MPs that hate him - and that's just in his own party.
Yet, another anti-Brexit post.
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Fullofsurprises
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#3
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(Original post by Wired_1800)
Yet, another anti-Brexit post.
Not really, or at least, not technically. I'm raising a discussion about what on earth Boris thinks he can do, or what the elderly white Tories currently voting for him think he can do, compared to what will actually happen with this serial liar, hypocrite and manipulative narcissist in charge. Simples.
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random_matt
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#4
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Don't people on TSR have hobbies? Or is it just fun constantly going on about brexit, seems that people get upset for one hell of a long time.
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Notoriety
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#5
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#5
Stopped reading when saw it was published in the Guardian.
Posted on the TSR App. Download from Apple or Google Play
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Fullofsurprises
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#6
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(Original post by random_matt)
Don't people on TSR have hobbies? Or is it just fun constantly going on about brexit, seems that people get upset for one hell of a long time.
For some of us, politics IS our hobby. :teehee:
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Fullofsurprises
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#7
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(Original post by Notoriety)
Stopped reading when saw it was published in the Guardian.
Even though it was about the Telegraph?

Do you think Sonia Purnell is fibbing because it's in the Guardian?
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Burton Bridge
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#8
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#8
None of the above.
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DavieTon
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#9
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#9
Initially voted for the Chaos option, but on reflection he will likely see which way the wind is blowing and continue to flip-flop over to (vastly) different positions....
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fallen_acorns
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#10
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#10
I stand by my general Brexit prediction..

He will fail to get any renegotiation out of Europe.
Then he will either call an election to try and skew parliament into a position where he can pass a no deal Brexit, or it will happen the other other way around, but either way there will be an election.

He will loose the election to a Labour Party who will be campaigning for a second referendum.

Second ref is won by remain.

Boris either resigns after the election defeat, or after the referendum defeat.

We stay in the EU

But the political fallout is awful within the U.K., and we are more decided than ever.
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Wired_1800
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#11
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(Original post by Fullofsurprises)
Not really, or at least, not technically. I'm raising a discussion about what on earth Boris thinks he can do, or what the elderly white Tories currently voting for him think he can do, compared to what will actually happen with this serial liar, hypocrite and manipulative narcissist in charge. Simples.
They probably think he can engage with the EU in a way that Madam May could not achieve. Everyone knows that Theresa May was a useless PM, but we don't really know what Johnson will be able to achieve. We have to give him time to see what he can achieve, the EU has already signalled they are willing to listen to new proposals, when they saw BoJo was going to win by a landslide.

For me, I dont know what Johnson will do, but I am at least glad that he has openly signalled his willingness to walk away. We need a leader with the backbone to engage with the EU. Not someone like Theresa May that lies so much that you wont believe that she was the daughter of a clergyman.
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Rakas21
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#12
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(Original post by Fullofsurprises)
Fascinating article by Sonia Purnell, who worked with Boris in Brussels for the Telegraph, highlighting what a strange, shifty and ambitious man he is and how little regard he has for the truth and for ordinary decency.
https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...sis-eu-bashing

Purnell predicted long ago (to the derision of her then colleagues) that Boris would be PM, as he shortly will be. Quite a forecast for more than 25 years ago.

How will things go when he becomes PM? Will he hold a snap general election to try to legitimise himself? This seems plausible, given that the Brexit negotiations will either result in further delays post-Oct or else end in a miserable collapse of the UK economy into a deep recession.

As Purnell points out, much of what is now happening can be attributed to Boris and he is inheriting the mess he did so much to create. What will he do with it?

He also a civil service that won't trust him and many MPs that hate him - and that's just in his own party.
The most likely scenario is 60%..

1) Boris is told by Ireland that they will call his bluff

2) Boris brings back May’s deal with a letter or something and an edited future partnership. It will be called the Boris deal of course despite no change to 550 pages.

3) Boris passes the deal narrowly with the Labour 25 and the Tory survival instinct.

4) Brexit Party collapses into the Tories, massive local election win in May followed by election he wins.

..

The 40% likelihood is..

1) Identical.

2) Boris gambles on Going for no deal.

3a) Boris calls the bluff on a monc, survives, we get no deal, we go very quickly for a pre Christmas election which he wins

3b) Boris thinks he’ll lose a Monc, we get an October election pre Brexit and our hopes depend on a Farage deal. He will fail to get a majority in this scenario but probably wins. He will refuse to extend so we end up with the May Deal softened to cow to Lab. Second election likely with a miffed ERG. He loses a second election because although Brexit Party mostly melt, they don’t go Tory en masse. Boris resigns in about a year as a result.

..

3a and 3b are equally likely because the number of Tories would bring down a government rather than just abstain is probably only about 10 and in that scenario I think a lot of the Lab 25 would abstain.

So I think the chances of May’s deal passing in some form are still high just rebranded but I do think there is also still a route to no deal.

Fortunately Labour’s incompetence and poll ratings are such that I think the chances of Tory victory are good.
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Notoriety
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#13
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(Original post by Fullofsurprises)
Even though it was about the Telegraph?

Do you think Sonia Purnell is fibbing because it's in the Guardian?
Nah, but there is demonstrated bias and I just can't be bothered with it. Usually ends up being the writer doesn't like another person; great, really enriched my outlook on the world.
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Burton Bridge
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(Original post by Notoriety)
Nah, but there is demonstrated bias and I just can't be bothered with it. Usually ends up being the writer doesn't like another person; great, really enriched my outlook on the world.
Unfortunately the same can be said for all media.
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Fullofsurprises
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#15
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#15
(Original post by Wired_1800)
They probably think he can engage with the EU in a way that Madam May could not achieve. Everyone knows that Theresa May was a useless PM, but we don't really know what Johnson will be able to achieve. We have to give him time to see what he can achieve, the EU has already signalled they are willing to listen to new proposals, when they saw BoJo was going to win by a landslide.

For me, I dont know what Johnson will do, but I am at least glad that he has openly signalled his willingness to walk away. We need a leader with the backbone to engage with the EU. Not someone like Theresa May that lies so much that you wont believe that she was the daughter of a clergyman.
The walking away threat has always struck me as comically implausible and since everyone knows that in reality we can't possibly go down that round, it's automatically ineffective.

I think Boris won't be able to resist playing his usual passive-aggressive double dealing games and so he won't succeed at getting anything through, because even if he does achieve something new in negotiation (either with Ireland, or the EU, or his own backbenches) he will blow it five minutes later by saying nasty things about them. Unless he has about five people sitting on him, but who are the trusted senior civil servants who will carry out his strategies and keep him from saying dafties? Olly won't be around, so he won't have all then past expertise on the talks.
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Fullofsurprises
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#16
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(Original post by DavieTon)
Initially voted for the Chaos option, but on reflection he will likely see which way the wind is blowing and continue to flip-flop over to (vastly) different positions....
Yes, I think he will try to pass off an old position as a new one, his basic strategy will be to re-attempt to pass the May deal by calling it the Boris plan and changing a few words here and there. I don't think it will work though.

If he goes to the full chaos option, I have no idea what's going to happen. I think there would be serious civil disorder if he attempted to exclude Parliament. I can see Corbyn and co calling on Momentum to take to the streets.
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Wired_1800
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#17
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(Original post by Fullofsurprises)
The walking away threat has always struck me as comically implausible and since everyone knows that in reality we can't possibly go down that round, it's automatically ineffective.

I think Boris won't be able to resist playing his usual passive-aggressive double dealing games and so he won't succeed at getting anything through, because even if he does achieve something new in negotiation (either with Ireland, or the EU, or his own backbenches) he will blow it five minutes later by saying nasty things about them. Unless he has about five people sitting on him, but who are the trusted senior civil servants who will carry out his strategies and keep him from saying dafties? Olly won't be around, so he won't have all then past expertise on the talks.
That is fair. For me, I think the major achievement for BoJo is to remove the backstop from Madam May’s deal. If he can achieve that, then we are good to go.

Yes, like you, I am concerned that he may achieve it and then blow it up later with a loose comment or something silly.

I think we should prepare for a No Deal. The Bank of England and major banks are ready, we need everyone else (leavers and remainers) to be ready.

We should hope for the best, but prepare for the worst.
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Smack
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#18
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#18
The last option. Boris is motivated by power for the sake of power, and isn't particularly ideological. He's currently courting the hard-Brexit lot because he believes that's his best shot at being catapulted into power (although he does have some sycophantic Remainers or more liberal Tories behind him too). If he gets nowhere with it, he'll easily take a different option. The Boris we see at the next election will be different to the one we have seen in these leadership debates.
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Rakas21
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#19
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(Original post by absentcrucible)
So you support Labour/Remain XD?


And you support Tory XD?


Just wondering...
Of course and Brexit.

I do however have very little faith in Boris.
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Rakas21
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#20
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(Original post by absentcrucible)
I think Boris will hit virtually every road block may hit tbh. disclaimer I'm in favour of remaining, but I think the reason it will happen is I would think a 2nd referendum would be a narrow remain victory, solely based on how sick everybody is of brexit 24/7 news. Your thoughts?
While I agree with the road blocks I don’t see any chance of neverendum and nor am I sure remain could win given a legitimate argument of betrayal.
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