New prime minister on Tuesday what does this mean to you?
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Original post by Fullofsurprises
There's a key by-election on Aug 1st - Brecon & Radnor - which the LibDems could potentially win from the Tories - the latter currently have an 8000 majority. If that one does fall, it will only take 1 or 2 further by-elections to topple (potentially) the current government, or at least leave it hanging by so slender a thread that it will be pretty much impossible for them to operate.
The number needed is 2 albeit there are MP's who make that number higher in a fuzzy way on non-brexit issues.
If he avoids falling to a monc he should survive into November at which point we will have left, Brx Party will melt and he has a chance of winning an election.
Original post by 123543
Very reasonable analysis. I floated the point about how Change UK/ Independents for Change/ just Independents before reading your post.
That's interesting about Gauke, I suspected he'd maybe abstain come October/November if Boris pushed hard for a no-deal.
That's interesting about Gauke, I suspected he'd maybe abstain come October/November if Boris pushed hard for a no-deal.
No, Guake just survived a deselection hearing. He's chosen to remain a Tory MP at the next election and will vote accordingly.
the first American PM
I'm not sure if surviving an attempt at deselection by UKIP entryists equates to a guarantee he will effectively vote for a no-deal. Did he explicitly say he'd vote with the government in a VoNC in a no-deal scenario? I'm not purposely trying to press you on this, I'm just interested.
Original post by Rakas21
No, Guake just survived a deselection hearing. He's chosen to remain a Tory MP at the next election and will vote accordingly.
What it probably means, whether on Tuesday or Wednesday, is that we will have the worst Prime Minister in history. With the possible exception of Lord North. Worse than Anthony Eden, worse than Theresa May.
Mr Johnson will probably get about 70% of the votes of the Conservative Party membership. A man with no reasonable morals, who as Foreign Secretary made comments that have probably contributed to the longer jail sentence of a British woman in an Iranian jail, and who has used racist language (even though not a racist personally). A man who as London Mayor had buses without open windows on the top deck, a cable car to nowhere, reduced police numbers, and had a bridge costing over £30m that has not been built and was never needed. A man who has been reprimanded both by the Speaker of the House of Commons and the chair of the London Assembly for comments towards women.
Mr Hunt has political views I disagree with, but has a grasp of detail. Mr Johnson is simply unfit to be Prime Minister.
Mr Johnson will probably get about 70% of the votes of the Conservative Party membership. A man with no reasonable morals, who as Foreign Secretary made comments that have probably contributed to the longer jail sentence of a British woman in an Iranian jail, and who has used racist language (even though not a racist personally). A man who as London Mayor had buses without open windows on the top deck, a cable car to nowhere, reduced police numbers, and had a bridge costing over £30m that has not been built and was never needed. A man who has been reprimanded both by the Speaker of the House of Commons and the chair of the London Assembly for comments towards women.
Mr Hunt has political views I disagree with, but has a grasp of detail. Mr Johnson is simply unfit to be Prime Minister.
It means it's time for me to leave
Absolutely nothing
Boris will win obv.
I believe he’s a mini Trump. All talk no delivery . We’re going to be in for another impasse until he calls a general election or is forced into one, with his advantage in tatters.
Ideal scenario (highly unlikely but not as impossible as some might say) is a Labour Party supported probably in a confidence and supply capacity by the Brexit party.
Most likely scenario is yet another impasse, with the Tories being the largest party still. But losing their majority.
Nothing would give me more joy than seeing Gove’s face as Corbyn walks into Downing Street. He’d probably call trump and beg for a coup.
I believe he’s a mini Trump. All talk no delivery . We’re going to be in for another impasse until he calls a general election or is forced into one, with his advantage in tatters.
Ideal scenario (highly unlikely but not as impossible as some might say) is a Labour Party supported probably in a confidence and supply capacity by the Brexit party.
Most likely scenario is yet another impasse, with the Tories being the largest party still. But losing their majority.
Nothing would give me more joy than seeing Gove’s face as Corbyn walks into Downing Street. He’d probably call trump and beg for a coup.
Original post by Rakas21
Technically speaking Boris wont become Prime Minister until Wednesday afternoon. The current plan is to announce the result on Tuesday but May will take her final PMQ's (traditionally lots of clapping, praising, fan service and a Cameron esq quote like 'i was the future once') and then head to see the Queen on Wednesday to formally resign and recommend that Boris be invited to the Palace and be appointed. Later on Wednesday we will then see Boris walk up Downing Street and make a speech.
It is a terrific symbol of a healthy democracy, our history in involving the monarch and hopefully a sign that one way or another, we will leave the EU on 31st October.
Of the five scenarios i see, Boris wins an election in three of them so i put him at 60% albeit that is just to be largest party (who knows about a majority).
It is a terrific symbol of a healthy democracy, our history in involving the monarch and hopefully a sign that one way or another, we will leave the EU on 31st October.
Of the five scenarios i see, Boris wins an election in three of them so i put him at 60% albeit that is just to be largest party (who knows about a majority).
May I suggest three flies that may take refuge in the ointment next week and which may disrupt Boris’ plans.
The first is that May advises the Queen to offer him only a Conditional Commission ie to try and form a Government that has the confidence of the Commons.
The Earl of Home was unsure whether he had the support of the entire Tory Party and accepted only a Conditional Commission in 1963. He did not kiss hands as PM until the following day.
The second is that Parliament is due to rise on the Thursday. Bercow may accept an Urgent Question to the new PM requiring Boris to come to the Commons on the Thursday to explain his Ministry’s plans.
The second of these is more likely than the first, but I don’t think this is all going to go smoothly next week.
The third is if two Tories defect to the Lib Dems. I think Corbyn would have to table a vote of no confidence and I don’t see how Parliament could adjourn until that takes place. Otherwise, effectively the motion to adjourn the House would become an informal vote of no confidence as it was in 1940.
Original post by Rakas21
Grieve and others have already stated that they would support the government and that he should have a chance to try negotiate.
The number who would sink the government is estimated to be no higher than 13 because you have the likes of Guake who has said he'd no deal over monc.
The two questions in this scenario are..
1) Will CUK support it - They have said No previously so before October probably not.
2) What do the Lab 26 do. They have said they will vote for a deal, dont like Corbyn and may wish to avoid been seen to be part of a remain coup. If they simply abstain, the government survives.
So the risk is mjnimal.
The number who would sink the government is estimated to be no higher than 13 because you have the likes of Guake who has said he'd no deal over monc.
The two questions in this scenario are..
1) Will CUK support it - They have said No previously so before October probably not.
2) What do the Lab 26 do. They have said they will vote for a deal, dont like Corbyn and may wish to avoid been seen to be part of a remain coup. If they simply abstain, the government survives.
So the risk is mjnimal.
The only Labour MP who would possibly not vote for a VONC is Hoey. It is very difficult to see any of the ex-Tory independents backing Johnson, whatever they might have done with May. Any Tories who now defect to the Lib Dems will inevitably support a VONC. Any defecting Tories are unlikely to be famous names.
Original post by mjhmichael18
What does it mean to you that the UK is going to have a new prime minister on Tuesday? and Who do you think is more likely to be the next resident of 10 Downing Street out of Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt?
I know this is a tricky question and Brexit depends on it. I have always wanted there to be a deal as a no-deal Brexit would cause a lot of big consequences financially.
I know this is a tricky question and Brexit depends on it. I have always wanted there to be a deal as a no-deal Brexit would cause a lot of big consequences financially.
Couldn't care less. I've lived my entire life with shite Prime Ministers and nothing is changing in that regard.
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