EU shoots down Boris’s Brexit plan the minute he is elected Watch

username4750714
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(Original post by ThomH97)
I don't know what point you're trying to make? The EU don't want to renegotiate, but they might well do if faced with a PM (or his/her team of negotiators) willing to walk away without a deal. If they intend to call Johnson's bluff (or genuinely would rather Britain left without a deal than give up a bit more) then proclaiming they won't renegotiate serves that. Whoever is negotiating on behalf of Johnson or May does so under instruction, same way a lawyer or ambassador would.
The EU are much more prepared than us for a no deal Brexit.They might suffer a bit for it but we'll be worse off than them through no deal.It'll hurt us more than we hurt them so why would they be worried? They can sit back and sip champagne whilst we commit conomic self- harm.Any deal we get is going to be worse than the one we already have as part of the EU which begs the question why are we leaving at all?

Also there is no mandate for no-deal Brexit. We voted for brexit yes but we didnt say how.To use an analogy we agreed to go on a road trip but now we can't agree whether to take a ship, a plane or a train.We're unable to agree on a mode of transport and hence have decided to walk in our wisdom.
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Wired_1800
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(Original post by Fullofsurprises)
Yes, if a new anti-Brexit government came in, the legislative frameworks definitely exist to simply dump A50.

Actually I can see this happening now, because the Brexit Party are sure to take at least some of the Tory vote away (and more Tory voters are likely to go to Brexit than Labour voters, although if the latter in the rustbelt and coastal regions are annoyed enough, they might tip Brexit in some numbers), the LibDems are looking resurgent in SW Britain (I think we should view those seats that Cameron won back from the LDP south of the M4 and west of the M3 as temporarily loaned - the LibDems are still strong in many of those areas and haven't gone away) - which creates a scenario of a possible Lab/SNP/LibDem coalition. Such a coalition might not be possible with Corbyn as leader, which is the true stumbling block - but if Labour faced reality - 5 years of Boris ********, or bust - then they might at last find some cajones and ditch Jezza for Keir. Dumping A50 would be justifiable then, although of course it would still be accompanied by a great deal of Farage-driven trouble making and ERG-driven disruption attempts.

One thing to think about is that Boris has a 5K majority in a seat that whilst not exactly in the heartland of LibDemmery, is sufficiently close to it to be worrying.

The Tories are well aware of the above threat, hence all the current pandering to the Midlands, North, etc. Re-announcing old announcements about HS3, new hospitals, etc. I wonder how many more times before the election in October they will announce the Northern Powerhouse? :lol:
I did not believe you when you initially speculated about a GE in the Autumn, but it appears you are spot on. PM Johnson is going way too hard with public giveaways. He has already promised Billions for the North with regard to transport.

To your point, I think it would be a foolish move to call a GE before October 31. The Tories will lose both hardcore leavers to the Brexit Party and Remainers to Labour and Lib Dems.

My view is that Mr Johnson should push for a deal or no deal and leave by 31 October. Then he can call a GE in November. Anytime earlier would be a stupid move like what Madam May did in 2017.
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Tawheed
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RIP for the £
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barnetlad
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(Original post by James2312)
The EU are much more prepared than us for a no deal Brexit.They might suffer a bit for it but we'll be worse off than them through no deal.It'll hurt us more than we hurt them so why would they be worried? They can sit back and sip champagne whilst we commit conomic self- harm.Any deal we get is going to be worse than the one we already have as part of the EU which begs the question why are we leaving at all?

Also there is no mandate for no-deal Brexit. We voted for brexit yes but we didnt say how.To use an analogy we agreed to go on a road trip but now we can't agree whether to take a ship, a plane or a train.We're unable to agree on a mode of transport and hence have decided to walk in our wisdom.
Many of the EU 27 will hardly be affected at all, especially if UK citizens in other EU countries are allowed to continue living there and vice-versa.
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bj27
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(Original post by Wired_1800)
I did not believe you when you initially speculated about a GE in the Autumn, but it appears you are spot on. PM Johnson is going way too hard with public giveaways. He has already promised Billions for the North with regard to transport.

To your point, I think it would be a foolish move to call a GE before October 31. The Tories will lose both hardcore leavers to the Brexit Party and Remainers to Labour and Lib Dems.

My view is that Mr Johnson should push for a deal or no deal and leave by 31 October. Then he can call a GE in November. Anytime earlier would be a stupid move like what Madam May did in 2017.
How does he leave by October 31st if Parliament will most certainly block no deal and EU won't offer another deal?

EU know already that parliament won't let No Deal happen. May literally tried the exact same situation back in March. Only way No Deal happens is if he wins a gen election and there is a majority Tory rule.
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nulli tertius
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(Original post by Wired_1800)
I did not believe you when you initially speculated about a GE in the Autumn, but it appears you are spot on. PM Johnson is going way too hard with public giveaways. He has already promised Billions for the North with regard to transport.

To your point, I think it would be a foolish move to call a GE before October 31. The Tories will lose both hardcore leavers to the Brexit Party and Remainers to Labour and Lib Dems.

My view is that Mr Johnson should push for a deal or no deal and leave by 31 October. Then he can call a GE in November. Anytime earlier would be a stupid move like what Madam May did in 2017.
I don't see, and I don't think he can see, how to get to leaving by 31 October on the basis of the present voting strength.

The Europeans are tactically right to require him personally to eat humble pie before they will talk; so how can he strike a deal other than May's deal?

There aren't the Commons votes for a no-deal Brexit and the idea of a no-deal Brexit in the face of a hostile majority is just pie in the sky.

He has to change the Parliamentary arithmetic or die trying. There are only three ways to do that:-

1 A Referendum - Whilst that might have worked for May, I don't see how it works for Boris. The Liberals won't commit to abiding the result. It is difficult to see Labour doing so, so that means banking on all the Tories being faithful to the result. That is a big ask, given the last three years. What happens if Remain wins? Too much water has gone under the bridge for a second vote to deliver Brexit.

2 A General Election

3 A phone call to Nicola about Indyref 2.

A General Election looks the least unpalatable.
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Wired_1800
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(Original post by bj27)
How does he leave by October 31st if Parliament will most certainly block no deal and EU won't offer another deal?

EU know already that parliament won't let No Deal happen. May literally tried the exact same situation back in March. Only way No Deal happens is if he wins a gen election and there is a majority Tory rule.
That is not true. I think if Parliament blocks No Deal, there are two subsequent options: the PM asks the EU for an extension or Parliament revokes Article 50.

Now Mr Johnson has said that he wont ask for an extension. So the subsequent option will be to send the Queen, as Head of State, which would be the ultimate embarrassment for Parliament.

The other option is to revoke Article 50. This would be beautiful because then Nigel Farage will become Prime Minister. The Tories know this, even Jeremy Corbyn told his MPs that revocation of Article 50 could end the Labour Party, which love to talk about being the Party of the People.
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Wired_1800
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(Original post by nulli tertius)
I don't see, and I don't think he can see, how to get to leaving by 31 October on the basis of the present voting strength.

The Europeans are tactically right to require him personally to eat humble pie before they will talk; so how can he strike a deal other than May's deal?

There aren't the Commons votes for a no-deal Brexit and the idea of a no-deal Brexit in the face of a hostile majority is just pie in the sky.

He has to change the Parliamentary arithmetic or die trying. There are only three ways to do that:-

1 A Referendum - Whilst that might have worked for May, I don't see how it works for Boris. The Liberals won't commit to abiding the result. It is difficult to see Labour doing so, so that means banking on all the Tories being faithful to the result. That is a big ask, given the last three years. What happens if Remain wins? To much water has gone under the bridge for a second vote to deliver Brexit.

2 A General Election

3 A phone call to Nicola about Indyref 2.

A General Election looks the least unpalatable.
I think we are still using naive lens to see the current Government. If everything is consistent, Boris Johnson wont depend on Parliament. I think he would push the UK out of the EU, if he has to.

1. He wont call a second referendum.

2. General Election would ruin his Party. Remember Theresa May tried to use the same tactic to ask for a bigger mandate, but still lost. The Tories are not as stupid as we think.

3. Indyref 2 wont happen in the short term.
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bj27
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(Original post by Wired_1800)
That is not true. I think if Parliament blocks No Deal, there are two subsequent options: the PM asks the EU for an extension or Parliament revokes Article 50.

Now Mr Johnson has said that he wont ask for an extension. So the subsequent option will be to send the Queen, as Head of State, which would be the ultimate embarrassment for Parliament.

The other option is to revoke Article 50. This would be beautiful because then Nigel Farage will become Prime Minister. The Tories know this, even Jeremy Corbyn told his MPs that revocation of Article 50 could end the Labour Party, which love to talk about being the Party of the People.
So Boris is gonna do political suicide and destroy all diplomacy so he can say he delivered brexit? Only thing I can think of is that he has a plan with the US or something and will do a partnership of some sort there. Probably will be one sided towards the US like most of Trumps trade agreements.

Don't see the queen coming in. Even for Boris I don't see that happening, plus that could get blocked as well. I think he could force the EU to not actually grant an extension and by default No Deal happens.

If No Deal is reached the UK are still gonna have to strike deals anyway.

How many seats do UKIP have in parliament currently?
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nulli tertius
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(Original post by Wired_1800)
I think we are still using naive lens to see the current Government. If everything is consistent, Boris Johnson wont depend on Parliament. I think he would push the UK out of the EU, if he has to.
I don't see how he can.

We spent a couple of weeks staring into the abyss of prorogation and the mechanics don't work. A surprise prorogation attempting to break the conventions over the identity of the Lords Commissioners and with Bercow playing Speaker Lenthall would look like a coup. Boris knows enough about the failure of Nixon's Saturday Night Massacre. Any warning would immediately morph into a VONC

This week, a kite was flown about an election campaign spanning October 31. The Parliamentary washup period would translate into a VONC

A simple refusal to act will result in an Act of Parliament requiring him to act or a VONC and appointment of a caretaker PM. Any attempt to refuse royal assent meets the same fate as an attempt to prorogue.

There simply isn't a wizard wheeze to defy a Parliamentary majority. The nearest to this was Stephen Harper's actions in 2008

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008%E...entary_dispute

but ultimately all he was trying to do was buy time to allow the Opposition to have a row. He wasn't trying to govern into the intervening period.
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Notoriety
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(Original post by barnetlad)
Clowns are funny and have attention to detail of their act. Mr Johnson is not.
This is simply ludicrous. He is far smarter than you or anyone you know: 2:1 from Oxford and a lifetime of achievement. Also a lot funnier.
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Wired_1800
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(Original post by bj27)
So Boris is gonna do political suicide and destroy all diplomacy so he can say he delivered brexit? Only thing I can think of is that he has a plan with the US or something and will do a partnership of some sort there. Probably will be one sided towards the US like most of Trumps trade agreements.

Don't see the queen coming in. Even for Boris I don't see that happening, plus that could get blocked as well. I think he could force the EU to not actually grant an extension and by default No Deal happens.

If No Deal is reached the UK are still gonna have to strike deals anyway.

How many seats do UKIP have in parliament currently?
Yes, I also see Johnson using the US as an ally to force the EU to have a FTA. He is not losing all diplomacy because they are playing hardball.

It is quite interesting how we have expected to make ourselves look like fools to the EU.

I think Johnson wont do anything to support an extension, then he would call the Parliament’s bluff to see whether they will either put a VoNC or revoke Article 50. The Tories wont agree with a VoNC and any Tory MP who does that would be committing their own political demise. Look at the hard Remainers like Anne Soubry, she had to leave the Party because she knows that she wont survive it. Also, local Associations are coming after people like Grieve, Gauke and Boles.

On the other hand, any Party who supports revoking Article 50 will destroy their chance of re-election, unless they are in a strong remain seat. Jo Swinson’s popularity has already dipped when she said that she wont support Brexit if another referendum produced the same Leave outcome. She has been forced to backtrack because the attack is that she is neither Liberal nor a Democrat.

Finally, we are not talking about UKIP, but the Brexit Party. John Curtice, a well-known pollster, stated that if the EU referendum was to be replicated in the next UK GE, that the Tories and Labour Party should be very worried.
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Wired_1800
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(Original post by nulli tertius)
I don't see how he can.

We spent a couple of weeks staring into the abyss of prorogation and the mechanics don't work. A surprise prorogation attempting to break the conventions over the identity of the Lords Commissioners and with Bercow playing Speaker Lenthall would look like a coup. Boris knows enough about the failure of Nixon's Saturday Night Massacre. Any warning would immediately morph into a VONC

This week, a kite was flown about an election campaign spanning October 31. The Parliamentary washup period would translate into a VONC

A simple refusal to act will result in an Act of Parliament requiring him to act or a VONC and appointment of a caretaker PM. Any attempt to refuse royal assent meets the same fate as an attempt to prorogue.

There simply isn't a wizard wheeze to defy a Parliamentary majority. The nearest to this was Stephen Harper's actions in 2008

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008%E...entary_dispute

but ultimately all he was trying to do was buy time to allow the Opposition to have a row. He wasn't trying to govern into the intervening period.
You are bringing examples of countries that are not the UK. Johnson is not Nixon or Harper, nor are we Canada or the US.

A VoNC would ruin the Tory Party. Even at May’s lowest point, she still won her VoNC because the Tories would rather die than allow Jeremy Corbyn to be in power.

We are making lots of speculation on activities that are very political.

Johnson has already made his cabinet to commit to leaving by October 31. If he reneges on that, he would be the shortest ever PM.
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bj27
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(Original post by Wired_1800)
Yes, I also see Johnson using the US as an ally to force the EU to have a FTA. He is not losing all diplomacy because they are playing hardball.

It is quite interesting how we have expected to make ourselves look like fools to the EU.

I think Johnson wont do anything to support an extension, then he would call the Parliament’s bluff to see whether they will either put a VoNC or revoke Article 50. The Tories wont agree with a VoNC and any Tory MP who does that would be committing their own political demise. Look at the hard Remainers like Anne Soubry, she had to leave the Party because she knows that she wont survive it. Also, local Associations are coming after people like Grieve, Gauke and Boles.

On the other hand, any Party who supports revoking Article 50 will destroy their chance of re-election, unless they are in a strong remain seat. Jo Swinson’s popularity has already dipped when she said that she wont support Brexit if another referendum produced the same Leave outcome. She has been forced to backtrack because the attack is that she is neither Liberal nor a Democrat.

Finally, we are not talking about UKIP, but the Brexit Party. John Curtice, a well-known pollster, stated that if the EU referendum was to be replicated in the next UK GE, that the Tories and Labour Party should be very worried.
Revoking Article 50 only can be done if there is a peoples vote. I don't think a people's vote for Labour will destroy their chances of re election, it will obviously do so for Tories. If the people vote for leave again then well thats just another problem, that will probably just end up being may part II, a person who doesn't actually want to do brexit but has to.

Sorry meant brexit party. Yeah they did well in european polls but they're not gonna suddenly prop up seats, any screw up leads to Labour winning. Only way they win is if effectively every current Tory area becomes Brexit party, because they're not stealing many if any Labour votes. Farage is effectively just the person to put pressure on Tories because he steals their seats directly. However if there's an implosion for Tories Labour will steal seats in swing areas between Tory and Labour.

Also European elections are different to Council or GEs.

case in point here. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-a9021961.html
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nulli tertius
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(Original post by Wired_1800)
You are bringing examples of countries that are not the UK. Johnson is not Nixon or Harper, nor are we Canada or the US.
I've had to bring in overseas examples because there aren't relevant British examples more recent than the 1683 surprise dissolution.

A VoNC would ruin the Tory Party. Even at May’s lowest point, she still won her VoNC because the Tories would rather die than allow Jeremy Corbyn to be in power.
A VoNC won't put Corbyn in Downing Street though the subsequent election might. Johnson would normally remain in office until that election. A replacement would inevitably be a caretaker PM to sort out October 31 and bring about an election in the event Johnson refused to do so.

It is clear clear that several Tories are willing to use a VoNC to bring down Johnson is they have to. The position is different from the Major VoC in 1993 and the May 2019 VoNC.

Look at Guto Bebb. Let's say, you are the Chief Whip. How do you get his vote?
https://www.dailypost.co.uk/news/nor...nding-16583005

To make it clear, there would be no majority in the Commons for revoking Article 50 unless there was a flat refusal by Europe to extend.

We are making lots of speculation on activities that are very political.
I don't agree. What I am saying is that there is no path through to an October 31 departure without Johnson changing the electoral arithmetic whatever he wants

Johnson has already made his cabinet to commit to leaving by October 31. If he reneges on that, he would be the shortest ever PM.
There are two points here. One doesn't know how many cabinet ministers have made their peace with their consciences by concluding that they will never be put in the position of a no deal exit on October 31. That list may include both Gove and Rudd. Plenty of pacifists have sat in the cabinet on the basis that no-one will ever ask them to decide between peace and war.

Boris won't renege. He will fail. That is something different.
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barnetlad
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(Original post by Notoriety)
This is simply ludicrous. He is far smarter than you or anyone you know: 2:1 from Oxford and a lifetime of achievement. Also a lot funnier.
My uncle had a first in History. I know a former Harvard lecturer.

Lifetime of what achievement? Editor of a small circulation weekly magazine. Worst London Mayor, even worse than Ken Livingstone. Foreign Secretary whose careless language and lack of attention to detail has led to someone still languishing in an Iranian jail.
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username4750714
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(Original post by Notoriety)
This is simply ludicrous. He is far smarter than you or anyone you know: 2:1 from Oxford and a lifetime of achievement. Also a lot funnier.
A 2.1 in what exactly? Political theory wasn't it? Not exactly a hard subject.And it's not that hard to get into oxford if you are set up to go there from the start.He went to Eton and private school.He's descended from an english king and his parents were wealthy.Dont pretend he got in on merit.I doubt he did.
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Notoriety
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(Original post by James2312)
A 2.1 in what exactly? Political theory wasn't it? Not exactly a hard subject.And it's not that hard to get into oxford if you are set up to go there from the start.He went to Eton and private school.Dont pretend he got in on merit.I doubt he did.
No, the Greats. The most respected course along with mathematics.

(Original post by barnetlad)
My uncle had a first in History. I know a former Harvard lecturer.

Lifetime of what achievement? Editor of a small circulation weekly magazine. Worst London Mayor, even worse than Ken Livingstone. Foreign Secretary whose careless language and lack of attention to detail has led to someone still languishing in an Iranian jail.
Much better, I think, than writing things on TSR. Aka your claim to fame. Let's not pretend you are fit to criticise the man.
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nulli tertius
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(Original post by bj27)
Revoking Article 50 only can be done if there is a peoples vote.
Do you mean legally or politically?

Legally, that is definitely not the case.

Legally an Act of Parliament may be necessary but that is contested.

Politically, I am not sure. I think a vote would be needed to revoke in 2019 but if say there was a long extension to 2021, then one could well see a tacit revocation at the end of that period. What happened to Brown's five economic tests for joining the Euro? There was no announcement by any Government that we are not joining the Euro nor that the five economic tests are no longer applicable but does anyone seriously think that Javid might announce on Monday morning that we have now satisfied the five economic tests and we will be using the Euro from September 1?
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bj27
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(Original post by nulli tertius)
Do you mean legally or politically?

Legally, that is definitely not the case.

Legally an Act of Parliament may be necessary but that is contested.

Politically, I am not sure. I think a vote would be needed to revoke in 2019 but if say there was a long extension to 2021, then one could well see a tacit revocation at the end of that period. What happened to Brown's five economic tests for joining the Euro? There was no announcement by any Government that we are not joining the Euro nor that the five economic tests are no longer applicable but does anyone seriously think that Javid might announce on Monday morning that we have now satisfied the five economic tests and we will be using the Euro from September 1?
Politically sorry. Ofc it can be legally done if Parliament agrees to it.

But like on a political level if Boris is like 'Guys I was trolling lets stop brexit' there is no way in hell he would be able to go through with it being leader of the tory party.
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