EU shoots down Boris’s Brexit plan the minute he is elected Watch

Wired_1800
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(Original post by nulli tertius)
I've had to bring in overseas examples because there aren't relevant British examples more recent than the 1683 surprise dissolution.



A VoNC won't put Corbyn in Downing Street though the subsequent election might. Johnson would normally remain in office until that election. A replacement would inevitably be a caretaker PM to sort out October 31 and bring about an election in the event Johnson refused to do so.

It is clear clear that several Tories are willing to use a VoNC to bring down Johnson is they have to. The position is different from the Major VoC in 1993 and the May 2019 VoNC.

Look at Guto Bebb. Let's say, you are the Chief Whip. How do you get his vote?
https://www.dailypost.co.uk/news/nor...nding-16583005

To make it clear, there would be no majority in the Commons for revoking Article 50 unless there was a flat refusal by Europe to extend.



I don't agree. What I am saying is that there is no path through to an October 31 departure without Johnson changing the electoral arithmetic whatever he wants



There are two points here. One doesn't know how many cabinet ministers have made their peace with their consciences by concluding that they will never be put in the position of a no deal exit on October 31. That list may include both Gove and Rudd. Plenty of pacifists have sat in the cabinet on the basis that no-one will ever ask them to decide between peace and war.

Boris won't renege. He will fail. That is something different.
You have made fair points, but I am unable to support or reject your comments because they are based on speculation.

So let us play a game called “Operation Destroy the Tory Party”.

The EU refuses to give Johnson what he wants i.e. removing the backstop. Johnson then refuses to budge on asking the EU for an extension. There is chaos, some Cabinet members like Rudd and Morgan resign.

It is October and close to the deadline. With Johnson refusing to ask for an extension, Jeremy Corbyn calls for a VoNC in the Tory Government. MPs like Hammond, Stewart, Gauke, Grieve and co support the Jeremy Corbyn’s motion.

There is a caretaker PM, probably Hunt or Javid, who asks for an extension, which would be flexible. The caretaker PM then calls an election.

Now, do you honestly think that the Tories would survive the bloodbath from a GE when they have not delivered Brexit?? Nigel Farage would pounce and rip them apart collecting the ardent Brexiteers. Jeremy Corbyn and Jo Swinson will take the remainers.

My point is that we are looking at this from the point of the electorate. The MPs are not as stupid as we think they are. They will never vote for their own demise.

My view is that PM Johnson would do nothing and just wait for the UK to slip out with no deal. Then he blames the EU for destroying the UK and aligns himself with Trump. Just today, Trump made an announcement that he has instructed his trade delegation to begin work for a FTA deliberation from November.
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Fullofsurprises
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(Original post by bj27)
Politically sorry. Ofc it can be legally done if Parliament agrees to it.

But like on a political level if Boris is like 'Guys I was trolling lets stop brexit' there is no way in hell he would be able to go through with it being leader of the tory party.
Boris was trolling, but for his own self-interest. He only switched from Remain to Brexit when he realised he might be able to use it to become PM - a plan which worked, to give him rather dubious credit for having no convictions but loads of ambition. Of course, he's now hoist by his own petard, as actually delivering Brexit will be an incredibly poisoned chalice, no matter which way it goes. He doesn't have a superpower of restoring an economy that has been severely battered single-handed.

Part of his laughable plan is to kowtow to the US and hope for free gifts from them. I listened carefully to Trump today, he was talking about how the US could do "five times as much business with the UK after Brexit". It's always worth checking what Trump actually means. He doesn't mean the UK will sell five times as much stuff to the US. He means the US will sell five times as much stuff to the UK and do its typical hardball protectionist best to block our exports to them.
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Wired_1800
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(Original post by bj27)
Revoking Article 50 only can be done if there is a peoples vote. I don't think a people's vote for Labour will destroy their chances of re election, it will obviously do so for Tories. If the people vote for leave again then well thats just another problem, that will probably just end up being may part II, a person who doesn't actually want to do brexit but has to.

Sorry meant brexit party. Yeah they did well in european polls but they're not gonna suddenly prop up seats, any screw up leads to Labour winning. Only way they win is if effectively every current Tory area becomes Brexit party, because they're not stealing many if any Labour votes. Farage is effectively just the person to put pressure on Tories because he steals their seats directly. However if there's an implosion for Tories Labour will steal seats in swing areas between Tory and Labour.

Also European elections are different to Council or GEs.

case in point here. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-a9021961.html
Jeremy Corbyn will not put forth a motion to revoke Article 50. Also, the people’s vote option will be dangerous for any Party who puts it forward. It shows that they are undemocratic.

Be careful what you wish for. The last time Farage was in-charge of UKIP they took about 4million votes. If it was proportional representation, they would have been one of the largest Parties at Westminster. I don't think the Tories want to tempt fate for the second time.

Finally, people’s verbal comments are different to a real election. When they are faced with a choice, they may surprise you. This happened with Brexit, millions voting for UKIP and millions voting for the Brexit Party.
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nulli tertius
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(Original post by Wired_1800)
You have made fair points, but I am unable to support or reject your comments because they are based on speculation.

So let us play a game called “Operation Destroy the Tory Party”.

The EU refuses to give Johnson what he wants i.e. removing the backstop. Johnson then refuses to budge on asking the EU for an extension. There is chaos, some Cabinet members like Rudd and Morgan resign.

It is October and close to the deadline. With Johnson refusing to ask for an extension, Jeremy Corbyn calls for a VoNC in the Tory Government. MPs like Hammond, Stewart, Gauke, Grieve and co support the Jeremy Corbyn’s motion.

There is a caretaker PM, probably Hunt or Javid, who asks for an extension, which would be flexible. The caretaker PM then calls an election.

Now, do you honestly think that the Tories would survive the bloodbath from a GE when they have not delivered Brexit?? Nigel Farage would pounce and rip them apart collecting the ardent Brexiteers. Jeremy Corbyn and Jo Swinson will take the remainers.
I think that is very much Matthew Parris' analysis which is why he thinks Boris should call an election before it is too late. There is a real risk of the Kim Campbell scenario occurring. I am actually slightly more optimistic. Your scenario assumes the caretaker PM is the survivor of the massacre trying to shepherd the wounded to safety. I think the caretaker is probably (but not necessarily) a rebel Tory largely relying on Opposition support (a Tory Ramsey Macdonald in other words). On that analysis the Tory Party is still a cohesive body to fight the General Election (probably under Gove as acting leader) with the caretaker PM bowing out of politics.

Provided the public are convinced Boris fought a good fight, I'm not sure the public will then have a lot of time for Farage, but that is speculation. The key is that Bois has to try and fail.
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Wired_1800
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(Original post by nulli tertius)
I think that is very much Matthew Parris' analysis which is why he thinks Boris should call an election before it is too late. There is a real risk of the Kim Campbell scenario occurring. I am actually slightly more optimistic. Your scenario assumes the caretaker PM is the survivor of the massacre trying to shepherd the wounded to safety. I think the caretaker is probably (but not necessarily) a rebel Tory largely relying on Opposition support (a Tory Ramsey Macdonald in other words). On that analysis the Tory Party is still a cohesive body to fight the General Election (probably under Gove as acting leader) with the caretaker PM bowing out of politics.

Provided the public are convinced Boris fought a good fight, I'm not sure the public will then have a lot of time for Farage, but that is speculation. The key is that Bois has to try and fail.
Boris Johnson wont call an election he knows he would lose. Calling an election too early risks either Corbyn entering via votes lost by Farage or Farage enters with a decent majority.

We should not forget that Madam May called an election when she was polling stronger than Corbyn. Yet, she lost 30 seats. Many Tories have publicly voiced their opposition to an early GE.

The Tory Party would not be a cohesive body to fight an election. Rory Stewart made comments that tried to pitch himself closer to other non-Conservatives and he was laughed off the stage.

A caretaker PM would just be there to smoothen the process for the demise of the Tories. This happened after Tatcher and many Tory grandees have stated that this must not repeat itself.

Let me put it to you. Using your view, if Johnson called an early election and did what you think he should do, would you vote for him? If no, why not? If yes, why?
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BeetRoots
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Waiting for the look on the faces of leave voters when they get made redundant because trade has slumped or become more expensive with the EU. It will almost all have been worth it for that look.
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nulli tertius
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(Original post by Wired_1800)
Boris Johnson wont call an election he knows he would lose. Calling an election too early risks either Corbyn entering via votes lost by Farage or Farage enters with a decent majority.

We should not forget that Madam May called an election when she was polling stronger than Corbyn. Yet, she lost 30 seats. Many Tories have publicly voiced their opposition to an early GE.

The Tory Party would not be a cohesive body to fight an election. Rory Stewart made comments that tried to pitch himself closer to other non-Conservatives and he was laughed off the stage.

A caretaker PM would just be there to smoothen the process for the demise of the Tories. This happened after Tatcher and many Tory grandees have stated that this must not repeat itself.

Let me put it to you. Using your view, if Johnson called an early election and did what you think he should do, would you vote for him? If no, why not? If yes, why?
I wouldn't vote for him, but that is because I oppose Brexit, not just a no-deal Brexit.

What however I think Boris should do is go to the end August EU summit (which is the one occasion when the heads of government have to meet him) and fail to get any movement on a deal. He should extract a conditional agreement that if he loses a General Election before October 31, the EU will extend Article 50 for his successor. When Parliament meets at the beginning of September he will explain that he cannot get an improved deal out of the EU and wants Parliamentary authority for a no deal Brexit. If he doesn't get it, he will ask for a 2/3 majority for a general election to be held before October 31 but with the new Parliament meeting after 1 November.

He won't get approval for a no deal Brexit but will get his 2/3 majority for a General Election. The conditional Article 50 extension will have shot the fox of any allegation that he is seeking a no deal Brexit by default (and would justify Opposition politicians to vote against an election). However, and this is the important thing, any vote for a Tory candidate becomes a vote for the manifesto commitment of a no deal Brexit regardless of the personal views of the Tory candidate. The newly elected Tory MPs will be counted towards whether Boris has the number of votes to remain as PM but none of those MPs will have the opportunity to rebel over a no deal Brexit. Conversely, any vote against the Conservatives is a vote against a no deal Brexit. Electing Faragists or Lib Dems equally reduces the chances of Boris remaining in power and increases the chances of the conditional Article 50 extension kicking in.

If the Tories (+DUP) win a majority the UK exits on October 31 without a deal (with some chaos because there has probably been no opportunity to pass no deal legislation but that is true for all scenarios). If they don't, Boris resigns (there is really no chance of a Boris minority government) and the Article 50 extension kicks in.
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Other_Owl
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Are we getting closer for Brexit being cancelled?
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Wired_1800
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(Original post by nulli tertius)
I wouldn't vote for him, but that is because I oppose Brexit, not just a no-deal Brexit.

What however I think Boris should do is go to the end August EU summit (which is the one occasion when the heads of government have to meet him) and fail to get any movement on a deal. He should extract a conditional agreement that if he loses a General Election before October 31, the EU will extend Article 50 for his successor. When Parliament meets at the beginning of September he will explain that he cannot get an improved deal out of the EU and wants Parliamentary authority for a no deal Brexit. If he doesn't get it, he will ask for a 2/3 majority for a general election to be held before October 31 but with the new Parliament meeting after 1 November.

He won't get approval for a no deal Brexit but will get his 2/3 majority for a General Election. The conditional Article 50 extension will have shot the fox of any allegation that he is seeking a no deal Brexit by default (and would justify Opposition politicians to vote against an election). However, and this is the important thing, any vote for a Tory candidate becomes a vote for the manifesto commitment of a no deal Brexit regardless of the personal views of the Tory candidate. The newly elected Tory MPs will be counted towards whether Boris has the number of votes to remain as PM but none of those MPs will have the opportunity to rebel over a no deal Brexit. Conversely, any vote against the Conservatives is a vote against a no deal Brexit. Electing Faragists or Lib Dems equally reduces the chances of Boris remaining in power and increases the chances of the conditional Article 50 extension kicking in.

If the Tories (+DUP) win a majority the UK exits on October 31 without a deal (with some chaos because there has probably been no opportunity to pass no deal legislation but that is true for all scenarios). If they don't, Boris resigns (there is really no chance of a Boris minority government) and the Article 50 extension kicks in.
This is fairytale thinking. Boris cannot go to the EU to ask them to extend the window, if he loses his election. What planet are you on?

You have clearly stated that you wont vote for him, so that is already one vote towards Labour or Lib Dems. So why should Johnson erode more votes and give them to Farage or Corbyn??

I think Johnson would only be forced to call a GE if he does not have the numbers to have a majority government. If he loses the election on Thursday, then he has only 1 MP majority. That would push him towards a GE.

As I stated previously, Johnson would be making stupid move calling an election before October 31. I think he should get out in october and then call a GE.
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bj27
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(Original post by Wired_1800)
Jeremy Corbyn will not put forth a motion to revoke Article 50. Also, the people’s vote option will be dangerous for any Party who puts it forward. It shows that they are undemocratic.

Be careful what you wish for. The last time Farage was in-charge of UKIP they took about 4million votes. If it was proportional representation, they would have been one of the largest Parties at Westminster. I don't think the Tories want to tempt fate for the second time.

Finally, people’s verbal comments are different to a real election. When they are faced with a choice, they may surprise you. This happened with Brexit, millions voting for UKIP and millions voting for the Brexit Party.
4 Million Votes mean nothing if they're scattered across the UK. We don't do proportional representation here so that point is irrelevant. Maybe Tories are scared they'll peel off votes and force a Lab-Lib coalition possibly.

I think Corbyn will push for a different deal(which the EU may be more receptive to) and then get the people to vote on it. What should have happened straight after brexit is a vote on the type of Brexit, so parliament are in no uncertain terms what type of Brexit people want. Article 50 should not have been done so quickly too.

Tbh think voter turnout was pretty low for EU elections hence why Brexit Party got so many votes.
(Original post by Fullofsurprises)
Boris was trolling, but for his own self-interest. He only switched from Remain to Brexit when he realised he might be able to uSubmit reply

se it to become PM - a plan which worked, to give him rather dubious credit for having no convictions but loads of ambition. Of course, he's now hoist by his own petard, as actually delivering Brexit will be an incredibly poisoned chalice, no matter which way it goes. He doesn't have a superpower of restoring an economy that has been severely battered single-handed.

Part of his laughable plan is to kowtow to the US and hope for free gifts from them. I listened carefully to Trump today, he was talking about how the US could do "five times as much business with the UK after Brexit". It's always worth checking what Trump actually means. He doesn't mean the UK will sell five times as much stuff to the US. He means the US will sell five times as much stuff to the UK and do its typical hardball protectionist best to block our exports to them.
This effectively. Brexit is incredibly hard to implement because lots of people don't want to actually leave.

Trumps trade agreements are generally one sided for the US which is why he is so aggressive in his pursuing of deals. Effectively what he wanted to do with Mexico and Canada and with China. If we complain that the deal is bad he'd just slap on those good ol tarriffs while we are under no protection.
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nulli tertius
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(Original post by Wired_1800)
This is fairytale thinking. Boris cannot go to the EU to ask them to extend the window, if he loses his election. What planet are you on?
He would get that without any difficulty at all.

I think he should get out in october
As I have been saying numerous times; he doesn't have the ability to do this. His actual choices are:-

(a) general election
(b) referendum - which we are agreed does him no good
(c) Indyref2
(d) seeking an Article 50 extension voluntarily -which does him no good
(e) being legally required to seek an Article 50 extension on terms dictated by someone else
(f) resigning
(g) revoking Article 50 - again this does him no good
(h) being removed as PM in favour of a caretaker PM

Which of those eight would you choose?
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Wired_1800
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(Original post by nulli tertius)
He would get that without any difficulty at all.



As I have been saying numerous times; he doesn't have the ability to do this. His actual choices are:-

(a) general election
(b) referendum - which we are agreed does him no good
(c) Indyref2
(d) seeking an Article 50 extension voluntarily -which does him no good
(e) being legally required to seek an Article 50 extension on terms dictated by someone else
(f) resigning
(g) revoking Article 50 - again this does him no good
(h) being removed as PM in favour of a caretaker PM

Which of those eight would you choose?
A general election, as I have mentioned before. That is the only logical answer for a Party in decline. The question is when would be the best time to call for one?
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Wired_1800
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(Original post by bj27)
4 Million Votes mean nothing if they're scattered across the UK. We don't do proportional representation here so that point is irrelevant. Maybe Tories are scared they'll peel off votes and force a Lab-Lib coalition possibly.

I think Corbyn will push for a different deal(which the EU may be more receptive to) and then get the people to vote on it. What should have happened straight after brexit is a vote on the type of Brexit, so parliament are in no uncertain terms what type of Brexit people want. Article 50 should not have been done so quickly too.

Tbh think voter turnout was pretty low for EU elections hence why Brexit Party got so many votes.



This effectively. Brexit is incredibly hard to implement because lots of people don't want to actually leave.

Trumps trade agreements are generally one sided for the US which is why he is so aggressive in his pursuing of deals. Effectively what he wanted to do with Mexico and Canada and with China. If we complain that the deal is bad he'd just slap on those good ol tarriffs while we are under no protection.
Ok, let’s see how it unfolds. Bear in mind that Corbyn is still a Brexiteer. Apparently a Labour MP was alleged to have said that Corbyn was loving Johnson’s No Deal threat because that would mean that he does not have to do anything to stop it. Hence why he wants to call a VoNC at the “right” time.
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Zarek
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Basically his strategy of backstop removal ultimatum is the only sensible one given his 31 Oct deadline. Further negotiation without some indication that the EU is prepared to shift will get nowhere and just humiliate him. So I think he will ultimately be forced to have general election to break the impasse, a gamble he arrogantly feels he can pull of and which I sincerely hope he can't.
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nulli tertius
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(Original post by Wired_1800)
A general election, as I have mentioned before. That is the only logical answer for a Party in decline. The question is when would be the best time to call for one?
He doesn't have the votes to call one. 24th October is the last viable day for a general election. That means a dissolution on 19th September. Opposition parties will not co-operate on an agreed dissolution that doesn't allow them to postpone Brexit.

It is probably already too late for an automatic election following a VoNC. Unless Johnson agrees to seek an Article 50 extension, he would have to be replaced by a caretaker.
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Wired_1800
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(Original post by nulli tertius)
He doesn't have the votes to call one. 24th October is the last viable day for a general election. That means a dissolution on 19th September. Opposition parties will not co-operate on an agreed dissolution that doesn't allow them to postpone Brexit.

It is probably already too late for an automatic election following a VoNC. Unless Johnson agrees to seek an Article 50 extension, he would have to be replaced by a caretaker.
Ok, let’s see how it unfolds.
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Pity they missed Boris himself.
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(Original post by James2312)
The EU are much more prepared than us for a no deal Brexit.They might suffer a bit for it but we'll be worse off than them through no deal.It'll hurt us more than we hurt them so why would they be worried? They can sit back and sip champagne whilst we commit conomic self- harm.Any deal we get is going to be worse than the one we already have as part of the EU which begs the question why are we leaving at all?

Also there is no mandate for no-deal Brexit. We voted for brexit yes but we didnt say how.To use an analogy we agreed to go on a road trip but now we can't agree whether to take a ship, a plane or a train.We're unable to agree on a mode of transport and hence have decided to walk in our wisdom.
Because thats what people voted for and time and time again I have said the negatives of brexit could of been sorted long ago had the rich decided rather than throwing their toys out of the pram, instead they would rather create chaos for whatever reason though the most likely is to teach the public a lesson and let the public take the financial hit. They know this way the public will conform from now on in fear of chaos.
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Fullofsurprises
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(Original post by nulli tertius)
He doesn't have the votes to call one. 24th October is the last viable day for a general election. That means a dissolution on 19th September. Opposition parties will not co-operate on an agreed dissolution that doesn't allow them to postpone Brexit.

It is probably already too late for an automatic election following a VoNC. Unless Johnson agrees to seek an Article 50 extension, he would have to be replaced by a caretaker.
Yes, that's right. I proposed earlier that he would be seeking an election for Thurs 10th Oct as soon as he can (presumably a couple of days after Parliament returns, although given that is 3 Sept, things will be extremely tight unless he calls back a special Parliament) and I still think that is the target date, but there are some important difficulties along the way. You are correct that he intends to go into the election on a 'give me the tools and I will finish the job' platform, eg, a working majority to deliver a Hard Brexit. He cannot deliver Brexit at all with the current Parliamentary setup and with just one more by-election against him after next week he will be permanently teetering anyway, so the election must inevitably come soon.

All that stuff about proroguing was just meat to throw to the mad dogs of Brexit in his own backwoods, but there is just a little part of me than thinks he might be crazy enough to try it. Anyone for a rerun of the English Civil War?
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Fullofsurprises
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Oh and of course when Boris calls it, it will be time to go back and ask Brenda from Bristol what she thinks of it all.

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