Could the Lib Dem’s ever win an election? Watch

Rakas21
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#21
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#21
(Original post by ColinDent)
I have to disagree, there are many in the north that simply will not vote Tory, now that Labour are seemingly edging more towards supporting remain that would leave great swathes of the north open to the Brexit Party.
We made the mistake of trusting the current parties to deliver brexit once before, that will not happen again.
Although this is conventional wisdom it's not as bourne out electorally as you think. In the North East for example there are a lot of 55-35 constituencies in which the Tories (mainly in 2010 and 2017) have been biting into the Labour vote at ever greater levels.

The folks who worked in the mines and state manufacturing are dying off and being replaced by people who while not pro-Tory, never lost those jobs.

The same is true of northern Wales especially (the latest Welsh poll would wipe Labour out north of the Valleys).

- Note that i am not suggesting the North East will be blue in a years time, simply that its slowly heading there.
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ColinDent
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#22
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#22
(Original post by Rakas21)
Although this is conventional wisdom it's not as bourne out electorally as you think. In the North East for example there are a lot of 55-35 constituencies in which the Tories (mainly in 2010 and 2017) have been biting into the Labour vote at ever greater levels.

The folks who worked in the mines and state manufacturing are dying off and being replaced by people who while not pro-Tory, never lost those jobs.

The same is true of northern Wales especially (the latest Welsh poll would wipe Labour out north of the Valleys).

- Note that i am not suggesting the North East will be blue in a years time, simply that its slowly heading there.
You may possibly be correct on this matter, but we are hypothesising about an election called pre us leaving the EU, which would have to be pretty soon so it is in that situation I believe the brexit party will gain the seats from Labour.
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nulli tertius
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#23
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#23
(Original post by ColinDent)
I have to disagree, there are many in the north that simply will not vote Tory, now that Labour are seemingly edging more towards supporting remain that would leave great swathes of the north open to the Brexit Party.
We made the mistake of trusting the current parties to deliver brexit once before, that will not happen again.
Take Blair's old seat of Sedgefield.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sedgef...s_in_the_2010s

Brexit isn't going to get more than 10K even in Farage's greatest dream.

Lib Dems might get a few more than that on a good day but are more likely to end up a couple of thousand less.

However, no likely combination of votes gives this seat to anyone other than Labour.

In a two horse race the Tories might be pressing Labour more closely as Rakas suggests, but in a four horse race with the minor parties taking from both major parties, Labout always wins.
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ColinDent
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#24
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#24
(Original post by nulli tertius)
Take Blair's old seat of Sedgefield.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sedgef...s_in_the_2010s

Brexit isn't going to get more than 10K even in Farage's greatest dream.

Lib Dems might get a few more than that on a good day but are more likely to end up a couple of thousand less.

However, no likely combination of votes gives this seat to anyone other than Labour.

In a two horse race the Tories might be pressing Labour more closely as Rakas suggests, but in a four horse race with the minor parties taking from both major parties, Labout always wins.
Time will tell, but no one is buying labour's brexit delivery spiel anymore.
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Rakas21
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#25
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#25
(Original post by ColinDent)
Time will tell, but no one is buying labour's brexit delivery spiel anymore.
The real question for a seat like Sedgfield is the makeup of the Brx Party vote.

Nationally polling suggested that at the Euro elections we were looking about 60% 2017 Tory, 20% Lab and then 20% mixed (protest vote folk) which would increase Lab majorities but if Boris can get enough of a bounce to drop the Brx Party to about 12% then actually that split becomes about a third each. Lower than that and as per some of the 2015 marginals, Boris could be cheering as the makeup becomes more ex labour.

Essentially the question is, if the Brx Party poll say 20% in Sedgfield, how much of that 38% stays untouched vs the 53%. In the more marginal seats like Hartlepool, this matters a lot.
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