Brecon and Radnor by-election on Thursday Watch

Fullofsurprises
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The seat.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brecon_and_Radnorshire_(UK_Parli ament_constituency)

Past results history.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brecon...ncy)#Elections

Wales online - latest analyses put the LibDems ahead.
https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/p...polls-16649690

This is a pretty important by-election - it could take the new Boris Johnson coalition government down to a parliamentary majority of just 1 if the Tories lose. :eek:

Plaid Cymru and the Greens are standing down this time to give the LibDems more of a chance.

Result last time:

General election 2017: Brecon and Radnorshire
Conservative Christopher Davies 20,081.
Liberal Democrat James Gibson-Watt 12,043.
Labour Dan Lodge 7,335
Plaid Cymru Kate Heneghan 1,299.
UKIP Peter Gilbert 576

Results come in early Friday morning. It's a big rural constituency, so it will take some time to get all the votes in and counted.
Last edited by Fullofsurprises; 1 month ago
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barnetlad
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I hope the Lib Dems win. Plaid and the Greens should be commended for agreeing that the Lib Dems alone should represent the stop Brexit vote.
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Sir Cumference
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The bookies give the Lib Dems around a 95% chance of winning.
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Alt Tankie
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For cynical reasons, I hope they win too but I think the Tories will hold it.
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nulli tertius
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(Original post by Alt Tankie)
For cynical reasons, I hope they win too but I think the Tories will hold it.
If the Conservatives thought they had a realistic chance of holding it, Boris would be in Llandrindod Wells today, not Manchester.
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Andrew97
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The cons are mad to let Davies stand again. They should lose for that reason. The cons should have atood down in favour of Brexit party.
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Alt Tankie
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(Original post by nulli tertius)
If the Conservatives thought they had a realistic chance of holding it, Boris would be in Llandrindod Wells today, not Manchester.
Or alternatively he’s confident of victory 😂

I remember the Brexit party were predicted to win the last bu election. That said I wouldn’t be surprised if the Lib Dem’s win it I’m just following my gut feeling. We’ll see
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nulli tertius
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(Original post by Alt Tankie)
Or alternatively he’s confident of victory 😂

I remember the Brexit party were predicted to win the last bu election. That said I wouldn’t be surprised if the Lib Dem’s win it I’m just following my gut feeling. We’ll see
A seat won by the Liberals in 1985, 1987, 1997, 2001, 2005 and 2010?

Boris wouldn't have been confident of victory if he had just ridden into Tehran on a camel at the head of a conquering army with Michel Barnier as a footstool.
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Fullofsurprises
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(Original post by nulli tertius)
If the Conservatives thought they had a realistic chance of holding it, Boris would be in Llandrindod Wells today, not Manchester.
Indeed. The imminent general election is to be a trade off for the Tories - they are going to lose a bunch of South-Western seats like this one. So they hope to make them up in the Midlands and (particularly) the North, by promising a load of outrageous cobblers.
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Fullofsurprises
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(Original post by Andrew97)
The cons are mad to let Davies stand again. They should lose for that reason. The cons should have atood down in favour of Brexit party.
Or at least, so says Mr Farage. :yep:

It will be interesting to see how the BNP, oh sorry, I meant BP do in B & R - Boris will I suspect attract back a lot of the BP vote, which is of course his key aim.
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ColinDent
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(Original post by Fullofsurprises)
Or at least, so says Mr Farage. :yep:

It will be interesting to see how the BNP, oh sorry, I meant BP do in B & R - Boris will I suspect attract back a lot of the BP vote, which is of course his key aim.
Oh dear, is this the latest "quip" that's insinuating that the Brexit Party are of the far right persuasion?
Is that really the best you can do to attempt to perpetuate the myth? It's a good job that the vast majority of the country can see through such ********.
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Rakas21
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(Original post by Fullofsurprises)
The seat.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brecon_and_Radnorshire_(UK_Parli ament_constituency)

Past results history.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brecon...ncy)#Elections

Wales online - latest analyses put the LibDems ahead.
https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/p...polls-16649690

This is a pretty important by-election - it could take the new Boris Johnson coalition government down to a parliamentary majority of just 1 if the Tories lose. :eek:

Plaid Cymru and the Greens are standing down this time to give the LibDems more of a chance.

Result last time:

General election 2017: Brecon and Radnorshire
Conservative Christopher Davies 20,081.
Liberal Democrat James Gibson-Watt 12,043.
Labour Dan Lodge 7,335
Plaid Cymru Kate Heneghan 1,299.
UKIP Peter Gilbert 576

Results come in early Friday morning. It's a big rural constituency, so it will take some time to get all the votes in and counted.
Boris seems to have given us a polling bounce which should at least prevent a collapse but current national polling would suggest about a 10% swing which allowing for lower turnout is probably a Lib Dem majority of about 5000.
(Original post by Andrew97)
The cons are mad to let Davies stand again. They should lose for that reason. The cons should have atood down in favour of Brexit party.
Rule number 1 in politics - Do not enable your enemy, We are not some kind of Leave alliance, don’t ever make the mistake of thinking of Farage and co as anything other than a long term threat.

Do agree that it was odd to reselect the candidate but that was the choice of the local party.
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CoffeeAndPolitics
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(Original post by barnetlad)
I hope the Lib Dems win. Plaid and the Greens should be commended for agreeing that the Lib Dems alone should represent the stop Brexit vote.
Hear Hear. I'm fairly confident that the Lib Dems will gain Brecon and Radnorshire from the Tories. Sheffield Hallam is the next parliamentary by-election once Jared O'Mara officially tenders his resignation (after summer recess) to seek professional support for his mental health and the help he desperately needs. I expect another gain by the Lib Dems since O'Mara has a very narrow majority and Nick Clegg was the previous occupant of the seat for the Lib Dems. So before we know it, the Lib Dems would have either 13 or 14 MPs before a much anticipated General Election at some point this autumn.
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helloman1
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(Original post by Fullofsurprises)
The seat.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brecon_and_Radnorshire_(UK_Parli ament_constituency)

Past results history.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brecon...ncy)#Elections

Wales online - latest analyses put the LibDems ahead.
https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/p...polls-16649690

This is a pretty important by-election - it could take the new Boris Johnson coalition government down to a parliamentary majority of just 1 if the Tories lose. :eek:

Plaid Cymru and the Greens are standing down this time to give the LibDems more of a chance.

Result last time:

General election 2017: Brecon and Radnorshire
Conservative Christopher Davies 20,081.
Liberal Democrat James Gibson-Watt 12,043.
Labour Dan Lodge 7,335
Plaid Cymru Kate Heneghan 1,299.
UKIP Peter Gilbert 576

Results come in early Friday morning. It's a big rural constituency, so it will take some time to get all the votes in and counted.
Lib Dem gain. It will be like 43% Lib Dem, 35% Conservatives, 14% Brexit Party, 8% Labour. Unless all of the Brexit Party voters change their minds and vote for the Conservatives, which could happen. Plus Kirsty Williams is the AM for Brecon and Radnorshire, she is a LD, so they already have a foothold there.
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Andrew97
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(Original post by Rakas21)
Boris seems to have given us a polling bounce which should at least prevent a collapse but current national polling would suggest about a 10% swing which allowing for lower turnout is probably a Lib Dem majority of about 5000.

Rule number 1 in politics - Do not enable your enemy, We are not some kind of Leave alliance, don’t ever make the mistake of thinking of Farage and co as anything other than a long term threat.

Do agree that it was odd to reselect the candidate but that was the choice of the local party.
I agree with that in principle, I was thinking from a pure we need Brexit votes in parliament logic. The Tories are going to lose the seat either way, so you might as well try to get a Brexit voting MP in that seat to help get Brexit stuff through Parliament.
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Fullofsurprises
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According to the Guardian today, sheep outnumber people in the constituency by 10:1. I was in Old Radnor with a friend not long ago and there do seem to be a lot of sheep. They seem more noticeable than the people. :teehee:

Jane Dodd (LibDem) is being cautious about Brexit on the campaign trail. Quite a lot of Leave supporters there apparently.

The constituency is apparently the size of Luxembourg. :eek:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics...ire-byelection
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The Mogg
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Well yes, there are more sheep in Wales than there are people (I think there's like 11 million sheep to 3.1 million people, something like that)

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-a7484796.html , This article was in 2016 so the populations will have increased but it's the same point.
(Original post by Fullofsurprises)
According to the Guardian today, sheep outnumber people in the constituency by 10:1. I was in Old Radnor with a friend not long ago and there do seem to be a lot of sheep. They seem more noticeable than the people. :teehee:

Jane Dodd (LibDem) is being cautious about Brexit on the campaign trail. Quite a lot of Leave supporters there apparently.

The constituency is apparently the size of Luxembourg. :eek:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics...ire-byelection
Last edited by The Mogg; 1 month ago
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Fullofsurprises
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(Original post by The Mogg)
Well yes, there are more sheep in Wales than there are people (I think there's like 11 million sheep to 3.1 million people, something like that)

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-a7484796.html , This article was in 2016 so the populations will have increased but it's the same point.
Where would Wales be without their sheep? We'd hardly recognise the place.
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Fullofsurprises
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Perhaps the Brexit sheep megacull will be an issue in Brecon & Radnorshire.
https://www.thenorthernecho.co.uk/ne...ingency-39-mp/

Around 40% of British sheep go to export and of those, 96% arrive in the EU. If we go into Boris's Hard Brexit, there will be EU quotas on those, meaning they won't be sold, so huge numbers will have to be slaughtered.
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ColinDent
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(Original post by Fullofsurprises)
Perhaps the Brexit sheep megacull will be an issue in Brecon & Radnorshire.
https://www.thenorthernecho.co.uk/ne...ingency-39-mp/

Around 40% of British sheep go to export and of those, 96% arrive in the EU. If we go into Boris's Hard Brexit, there will be EU quotas on those, meaning they won't be sold, so huge numbers will have to be slaughtered.
Or maybe they could come up with a radical plan, I'm sure that the great business minds can come up with better ideas than me but here's one for a starter, instead of slaughtering all those sheep how about just lowering the price to make it more affordable.
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